Spectar007 (@web3view) • Hey

Publications

Key Events This Week: 1. May Retail Sales data - Tuesday 2. Stock Market Closed, Juneteenth - Wednesday 3. June Philly Fed Manufacturing Index - Thursday 4. S&P US Manufacturing/Services PMI data - Friday 5. May Existing Homes Sales data - Friday 6. A total of 10 Fed speaker events this week We have a short but busy week ahead.
JUST IN: *ECB CUTS RATES FOR THE FIRST TIME SINCE 2019
ZkSync checker coming in 03.06.2024 More than 1,4M wallets will happy
https://x.com/tevaera/status/1796546781884604631?s=46&t=J9flIGbAsvhMYJXkrs1BVQ
JUST IN: 🇺🇸 President Joe Biden’s campaign started reaching out to the #Bitcoin and crypto industry: Reports The first Bitcoin election 🙌
BREAKING: The market is now pricing-in just 1 interest rate cut for the entire 2024, according to Bloomberg. This is down from 2 cuts being priced 10 days ago when April CPI inflation came at 3.4%. This comes as US PMI data on Thursday showed inflation remains sticky. Since January, a total of 5 interest rate cuts have been priced-out of market expectations. On Wednesday, Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon said he expects zero cuts this year. Higher for (even) longer.
📕 Approved this time is only 19-b approval. ✅ Approval of the S-1 document is also required, and it is expected to take several weeks. ✔️ Section 19b-4 - Applications submitted by management companies to the SEC - I'm going to launch this kind of ETF, so I feel like I need the SEC to review it. ✔️ What is S-1 - A report containing the evaluation of the company's financial soundness and profitability before listing. - Must be officially approved up to S-1 #ETF #ETH
Today's stock market heat map. $NVDA is literally holding up the entire market.
Current situation: 1. Stocks are falling like Fed rate cuts are cancelled 2. Oil prices are falling like we are entering a recession 3. Gold prices are falling like rate hikes are coming 4. Bonds are falling like inflation is back on the rise 5. #Bitcoin is falling like risk appetite has disappeared 6. Natural gas prices are falling like demand is decreasing What does the Fed do now?
🚀 $BWB Will List on @BitgetWallet Launchpad 💰Total Funding Target on IDO: $ 100,000 🪙Subscription Price: 1 BWB = $ 0.10 ⏰Whitelist Round:May 23, 18:00 - May 24, 00:00 ⏰Public Sale Round:May 23, 20:00 - May 24, 20:00 👉More details: https://t.co/oIdTrO9kFb https://t.co/oIdTrO9kFb
How bad has US housing affordability become? US rents have risen 1.5 TIMES faster than household incomes over the last 4 years. From 2019 to 2023, nationwide rents skyrocketed by ~30% while average salaries rose by only 20%. US rental cost increases have exceeded wage growth in all but 6 of the top 50 metropolitan areas. In Tampa and Miami, rents jumped over 3 times faster than salaries over the last 4 years. Meanwhile, the median rent price in the US is near a record $ 2,100/month. Housing affordability is still getting worse.
The crypto betting platform ZKasino has been questioned. Users are currently unable to withdraw money. The official Telegram has been banned. ZKasino’s deposit (0x91...Be45) reaches 10,500 ETH, worth US$ 32 million. Previously, ZigZag had issued an article accusing the ZKasino team of fraud https://etherscan.io/address/0x9144e18c28338516f0ace99bc88de34aae59be45 https://etherscan.io/address/0x9144e18c28338516f0ace99bc88de34aae59be45
Check my Builder Score on Talent Passport! The resume for the onchain era of the internet by @talentprotocol https://passport.talentprotocol.com/profile/8833
🎁 2 x Phaver-Up: Genesis NFT Çekilişi 🪂 Anlık FP: 750 $MATIC 💰 Beklenen an geldi, söz verdiğim gibi, Türk kullanıcılara özel 🇹🇷 NFT çekilişi.. 🚀 ✅ @lens/dollowen ve @lens/phaver i takip et ✅ Lens Protokol ve Farcaster adını Phaver'a bağla ✅ Bu postu BEĞEN ve sadece kendi profiline mirrorla (mirror tuşuna bastıktan sonra My profile seç, yani herhangi bir topluluğa mirrorlamayın ve herhangi bir yazı eklemeden sadece düz mirrorlayın, Lens seçeneği açık olmalı, ücretsiz seçeneğini seçebilirsiniz) ✅ En az 1 NFT bağlamış ol, en kolayı Anima (https://phaver.gitbook.io/phaver-help-center/phaver-points-and-cred-score/anima-proof-of-personhood) ✅ Ve diğer şartlar.. Kurallar çok fazla o yüzden bütün detaylar için mutlaka buraya göz atın: https://phaver.gitbook.io/phaver-help-center/turkish/phaver-up-nfts/tuerkiye-oezel-cekilis 📅 16 Nisan 12.00-24 Nisan 12.00 https://phaver.gitbook.io/phaver-help-center/phaver-points-and-cred-score/anima-proof-of-personhood
You can't make this up: At 11:05 AM ET, Tesla stock, $TSLA, fell nearly 6% after Reuters reported that the company cancelled plans for a low cost car. 30 minutes later, at 11:35 AM ET, @elonmusk posted that "Reuters is lying (again)." The stock quickly recovered gaining ~4% in minutes. This resulted in a ~$ 50 billion swing in market cap on news that Elon Musk has confirmed to be false. Being on X has become an essential part of being an investor in today's market.
Current situation: 1. Stocks are rising like the Fed is about to cut rates 2. Bonds are falling like rate hikes are coming back 3. Gold prices are rising like we are entering a recession 4. Oil prices are rising like the economy is perfectly fine 5. #Crypto is at all time highs like absolutely nothing is happening What is happening here?
Just as everyone forgot, banks continue to carry alarming amount of unrealized losses. In Q4 2023, unrealized losses on investment securities for banks hit $ 478 BILLION. This compares to over $ 100 billion of unrealized GAINS seen in 2020 when the Fed started cutting interest rates. Meanwhile, the Bank Term Funding Program has officially expired. This was the emergency loan program established during the regional bank crisis. We believe bank collapses are likely not over yet.
Market volatility has picked up over the last 48 hours, particularly as we head into the March jobs report. Simultaneously, expectations for the jobs number have dropped sharply, to 207,000 according to @Kalshi. Just 48 hours ago, markets expected nearly 20,000 more jobs to be added in March. Also, prediction markets saw odds of less than 150,000 jobs added in March rise from 14% to 24% today. With the sudden shift in expectations, we saw a 110 point reversal in the S&P 500 today. Does someone know something?
Gold prices have officially crossed above $ 2,300 for the first time in history. Since February 14th, gold is up an incredible $ 300/oz or 15% in less than 2 months. Even as 3 interest rate cuts have been removed from market forecasts, gold is pushing higher. Geopolitical tensions and renewed inflation worries have been the primary drivers.
The US stock market now accounts for a massive ~45% of total global market cap. Since 2008, the US' share has risen by ~15% to its largest since 2004. The US equity market size is now larger than India, China, Australia, Switzerland, Germany, Canada, UK, France and Japan COMBINED. US stocks also account for almost 65% and more than 70% of the MSCI ACWI and the MSCI World indexes, respectively. To put this in perspective, Nvidia, $NVDA, alone exceeds the GDP of all but 11 countries in the world.
Credit card debt is officially rising faster than it was prior to the 2008 Financial Crisis. It took only 4 years for households to set a new record debt level after paying down borrowings in 2021.
Current state of the electric vehicle (EV) market: BRAND NEW Ford Mustangs Mach-E vehicles are selling for $ 12,500 BELOW MSRP. That's a 30% discount on the car before a single mile has even been put on it.
BREAKING: For the first time in history, interest payments on non-mortgage debt in the US are equivalent to interest on mortgage debt, at $ 575 billion. Exactly 3 years ago, interest on non-mortgage debt was at $ 250 billion.
The Fed Now Has: 1. CPI inflation data that is up for 2 straight months 2. Core CPI inflation that is nearly double their 2% target 3. PPI inflation jumping to 1.6% with the biggest increase in 6 months 4. Supercore inflation at 6.9% on a 3-month annualized basis 5. Data suggesting that we have the strongest labor market of all time 6. Widespread market expectations for a "Fed pivot" What does the Fed do here?
BREAKING: The US House has passed a bill calling for China tech giant ByteDance to divest TikTok or the popular social video app will be banned in the US. The House voted 352 to 65 to approve the bill.
Wage growth has failed to keep up with home price appreciation since 2020. Meanwhile, prices are rising in a rising rate environment. It’s hard to see a case for affordability improving anytime soon.
Key Events This Week: 1. February CPI Inflation data - Tuesday 2. OPEC Monthly Report - Tuesday 3. February PPI Inflation data - Thursday 4. Retail Sales data - Thursday 5. Initial Jobless Claims data - Thursday 6. MI Consumer Sentiment data - Friday Crucial inflation data as we are 10 days out from the Fed meeting.
Just a couple weeks ago, Nvidia make a new record for the largest market cap gained in a day. Now it's making record in the other direction. Prepare for plenty of new records in both directions this year.
So now it’s $block farming time earlier it was Portal
BREAKING: US economy adds 275,000 jobs in February, above expectations of 198,000. The unemployment rate rose to 3.9%, above expectations of 3.7%. This means that the US economy has added jobs for 38 consecutive months. Even as layoffs accelerate, the data remains very strong.
BREAKING: New York Community Bank stock, $NYCB, rises 20% after announcing $ 1 billion capital raise. The stock is now up 125% from its low of the day seen just 2 hours ago. Completely normal behavior for a bank with $ 100 billion+ in assets.
The Fed would rather cut rates too late and risk economic weakness than cut too soon and risk a resurgence of inflation.
Bitcoin Fear and Greed Index is 90 - Extreme Greed Current price: $ 68,330
ALL NVIDIA, $NVDA, PRICE TARGET UPDATES TODAY: 1. KeyBanc: Raised to $ 1,100 from $ 740 2. Bernstein: Raised to $ 1,000 from $ 700 3. BofA: Raised to $ 925 from $ 800 4. Truist: Raised to $ 911 from $ 691 5. Cantor Fitzgerald: Raised to $ 900 from $ 775 6. Wolfe Research: Raised to $ 900 from $ 630 7. Stifel: Raised to $ 910 from $ 865 8. HSBC: Raised to $ 880 from $ 835 9. Goldman Sachs: Raised to $ 875 from $ 800 10. JP Morgan: Raised to $ 850 from $ 650 11. Morgan Stanley: Raised to $ 795 from $ 750 12. Citi: Raised to $ 820 from $ 575 13. Deutsche Bank: Raised to $ 720 from $ 560 14. DA Davidson: Raised to $ 620 from $ 410 15. UBS: Cut to $ 800 from $ 850 The median price target on $NVDA is now $ 880 which is up $ 140, or 19%, compared to yesterday.
In the latest round of stimulus, China's central bank just made the biggest mortgage reference rate cut in history. China just cut its 5-year loan prime rate, which determines mortgage rates, by 25 bps to 3.95%. The last time they did this was in June 2023 and rates were only cut by 10 bps. Still, demand for mortgages is exceptionally weak and home prices just marked their biggest drop since 2015. China's real estate market is beyond bear market territory.
Just like the last few quarters, expectations are very high for Nvidia. However, momentum in this stock has been incredibly strong. Nvidia is currently just ~11% away from becoming a $ 2 trillion company.
Key Events This Week: 1. Presidents Day, Markets Closed - Monday 2. Fed Meeting Minutes - Wednesday 3. S&P Global Services PMI data - Thursday 4. Existing Home Sales data - Thursday 5. Total of 5 Fed speaker events this week 6. ~15% of S&P 500 companies report earnings Short but busy week ahead.
Financial conditions today are easier than when the Fed started raising interest rates in March 2022. As seen in the chart below, financial conditions today are actually near their best since January 2022.
While AI stocks are still hot, mentions of AI on earnings calls are down sharply. In Q1 2024 thus far, there have only been ~200 mentions of AI on earnings calls. This is down sharply from the ~750 mentions seen in Q3 2023 and ~500 mentions in Q4 2023. However, it is still up sharply from the ~25 mentions seen in each quarter of 2022. Is AI hype starting to fade?
BREAKING: SpaceX has officially filed to move its state of incorporation from Delaware to Texas. This comes just weeks after a Delaware court voided Elon Musk's $ 56 billion compensation package.
Shelter inflation in the United States remains a major issue as it stands at 6.0%. Inflation for renters was 6.1% in January while inflation for homeowners was 6.0%. In January, the median national rent price remained near its peak, at $ 1,950/month. Meanwhile, the median payment for homebuyers is now $ 2,850/month.
BREAKING: Nvidia, $NVDA, is now the 4th most valuable public company in the world, worth $ 1.84 trillion. Today, Nvidia's market cap passed both Google and Amazon for the first time in history. Since January 1st, Nvidia has officially added $ 650 BILLION in market cap. That's more than the entire value of Tesla in less than 6 weeks. Truly incredible.
Key Events This Week: 1. January CPI Inflation data - Tuesday 2. US Retail Sales data - Thursday 3. Philly Fed Manufacturing data - Thursday 4. January PPI Inflation data - Friday 5. Total of 8 Fed speaker events this week 6.~20% of S&P 500 companies report earnings RT & LIKE if these weekly previews are helpful!
Latest List of Layoffs Over Last 3 Months: 1. Twitch: 35% of workforce 2. Hasbro: 20% of workforce 3. Spotify: 17% of workforce 4. Levi's: 15% of workforce 5. Zerox: 15% of workforce 6. Qualtrics: 14% of workforce 7. Wayfair: 13% of workforce We have now seen over 100,000 layoffs announced in 2024.
Mortgage rates in China are back down to levels seen in the 2008 financial crisis. While the rest of the world was raising rates in 2023, China began cutting. China cut interest rates on $ 5.3 TRILLION of mortgages in 2023 to support their economy. The last time they did this was in 2008. All while Evergrande was ordered to be liquidated and their economy is seeing deflation. China's real estate market has 2008 similarities.
On January 17th, PayPal's, $PYPL, CEO said he was going to "shock the world" on January 25th. Since the high after that statement, the stock is down nearly 20%. On January 25th, PayPal released new AI features and a way to earn cash back through the PayPal app. The stock fell sharply that day. Yesterday, PayPal reported their Q4 2024 earnings and the stock is down 10% today. PayPal has shocked the world.
Natural gas prices have been in a complete free fall for the last month. Since January 12th, natural gas prices are officially down 40%. Today, natural gas hit its lowest level since September 2020. Warmer than expected temperatures have dampened demand for natural gas and inventory gluts are building. Some good news for commodity inflation.
BREAKING: Total US household debt rises by $ 212 billion in Q4 2023, to a new record of $ 17.5 trillion. Breakdown of the large categories: 1. Mortgage Debt: +$ 112 billion to $ 12.25 trillion 2. Auto Loans: +$ 12 billion to $ 1.61 trillion 3. Student Loans: +$ 2 billion to $ 1.60 trillion 4. Credit Card Debt: +$ 50 billion to $ 1.13 trillion Total household debt in the US is now up ~23% in 3 years and rising rapidly. We are "fighting" inflation with debt. How can this end well?
Under current fiscal policies, the Debt to GDP ratio in the US is projected to hit 200% within 20 years. Prior to 2020, Debt to GDP in the US was ~100% and prior to 2008 it was ~60%. Current estimates show the US hitting $ 50 trillion in total debt by 2033. This means that the US will add $ 218 million in debt EVERY HOUR until 2033. Just imagine what would happen if the Fed doesn't in fact achieve a soft landing. This is unsustainable.
Key Events This Week: 1. S&P Services PMI data - Monday 2. ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI data - Monday 3. 10-Year Note Auction - Wednesday 4. Initial Jobless Claims data - Thursday 5. Total of 6 Fed members speak this week 6. 20% of S&P 500 companies report earnings Can the S&P 500 see 5,000 this week?