VINIDH (@vinidh) • Hey
https://land.philand.xyz/vinidh.eth
Publications
- We've got some great on-chain #Bitcoin news hot off the press here...
The secondary bottom signal is now confirmed on the UTXO's in loss after the return under the trend.
It looks like the parabola of loss has finally ended.
The peaks in the past have lined up with events like the 2015 return to lows, and the 2020 black swan which we surpassed on the latest push.
After these signals, Bitcoin did not go any lower, and marked the end of the "return to lows" that many are currently waiting for.
- #Bitcoin Next Cycle Top. ⛰️🔖
Thanks to a Fibonacci circles analysis based on Bitcoin cycle history I managed to find a method that could help to spot the next potential cycle top.
◽️ Using the 3.618 Fibonacci circle level led me to find the 2nd cycle top & the 3rd cycle top.
◽️ Using the 2.618 Fibonacci circle level led me to find the 4th cycle top.
Using this method and assuming November 2022's low was the bottom of the current cycle, 3 scenarios emerge:
*-> Scenario 1*
With the Fibonacci circle level that helped to find the 2nd and 3rd top, our current cycle top would be lying at **$505,000.**
It seems unlikely to happen as returns diminish over the years.
*-> Scenario 2*
With the Fibonacci circle level that helped to find the 4th top, our current cycle top would be lying at **$230,000.**
*-> Scenario 3*
My approach for this one is more conservative as the crypto market is a more mature market than it was in previous cycles.
Therefore I used the 1.618 Fibonacci circle level.
The current cycle top would be lying at **$108,000.**
Which scenario do you think is more likely? 👇
- The 5-day Alpha Trend on #Bitcoin has just printed a fresh sell signal...
At first, this seems like a bad thing, these sell signals have come at every major cycle top.
But for the past 2 cycles, they have also come at another place, the first early cycle top.
Not at the top, actually closer to bottom after the early top is in.
In 2015, the sell signal came right after the bottoming point, and the 2019 signal came right before (excluding the black swan of course.)
The same thing is happening now, the cycle bottom buy signal is in. Could the sell signal be telling us the downside is to end soon?
- The significance of the #Bitcoin halving's is undeniable now.
My November 28th Cycles Theory is now only a part of this brand-new model:
The Halving Cycles Theory.
You're going learn everything you need to know about right here.
This model exists from the beginning of Bitcoin price history. Which as recorded on BLX, is the 18th of July, 2010.
This is the ultimate Bitcoin time model. It is based not just around the date of the first halving (Nov 28th, 2012), but also the second (July 9th, 2016).
4-year cycles are extracted from Nov 28th, and July 9th marks intra cycle milestones.
This model calls cycle tops, bottoms, first and second early tops. Here are the dates:
**Cycle Bottoms (Green Dot) =** +/- 21 days from Nov 28th, beginning of green year.
**Cycle Tops (Red Dot) =** +/- 21 days from Nov 28th, end of red year.
**First Early Top (Yellow Dot) =** +/- 21 days from July 9th in green year.
**Second Early Top (Purple Dot) =** +/- 21 days from July 9th in blue year.
It is interesting that the average error rate for both is exactly the same, and these are the real numbers.
Using this information, we can tell exactly what will happen in each given year inside the 4-year cycle.
**1 Green Year (Green Horizontal Line, Accumulation) =** This year is accumulation. It begins with the Bitcoin bottom +/- 21 days from Nov 28th.
This is the year of the best cycle buying prices. It is also the year that Bitcoin advances towards the median price (half previous ATH).
Bitcoin will form its first early top in this year. +/- 21 days from July 9th. (Gray horizontal line in green year, yellow dot). From there price sees a cool down.
**2 Blue Year (Blue Horizontal line, Preparation) =** This year Bitcoin establishes time at its new fair value (median price).
It then makes it's advance to the second early top, which comes +/- 21 days from July 9th. (grey horizontal line inside blue year, purple dot.)
At the end of the year price moves towards but does not reach new ATHs. This is when the real bull market begins.
**3 Red Year (Red Horizontal Line, New ATHS) =** Red year is the final hurrah for crypto.
This contains the last cycle parabola, and where Bitcoin finds its cycle top. This is end of red year +/- 21 days from Nov 28th.
**4 Orange Year (Orange Horizontal Line, Bear Market) =** After setting its cycle top, Bitcoin must now find a new point of undervaluation.
Price undergoes a downtrend of 1 year, where it will then bottom +/- 21 days from Nov 28th, to restart the cycle.
So then, the November 28th's Cycles Theory since its creation has called the bottom at 15.5k in Nov 2022, the best cycle buying prices, and a move towards the median price (34,500 this cycle).
This model called for an early top on the 13th of July, 2023. This is the most recent yellow dot. This came just 4 days from 9th of July and is out of the +/- 21 days average error rate and 39 days max error rate.
This means that a first early top is in.
Bitcoin will set a next early top +/- 21 days from July 9th, 2024.
The next cycle top will be +/- 21 days from Nov 28th, 2025.
The next cycle bottom, +/- 21 days from Nov 28th, 2026.
Bitcoin will likely now undergo a cool down period from the first early top, there is still the possibility for rally between now and the next early top.
The halving is programmed, and so are these Bitcoin cycles.
- The Fibonacci Sequence is present on more than just #Bitcoin price action
The Monthly RSI has remained inside a Fibonacci channel for its entire existence
It has gotten very close to telling us when Bitcoin bottoms and tops, and also tells us that price must spend time in the Gray Lull zone (below 23.6% retrace) before launching the big bull run
2019 tried to escape it, but had to make the return
Bitcoin is serving its time now, the transition from bear to bull seems to be brewing
- I just voted "Yes" on "Renewed Liquidity Incentivization Mandate" https://snapshot.org/#/stgdao.eth/proposal/0xe8e92474bbd4ad0aa011cf69ad1873a9e30ab9c431f717e9d859a78fdd799a3a #Snapshot
- #Bitcoin sell off and everyone is yelling 10k.
The history of #BTC is lined with such sell offs and the market will recover from it as it did in the past.
- My ideal scenario for #Bitcoin $BTC
I think we should touch the Realized Price before the #Halving
- I just voted on "[Community badges] 2nd batch" https://snapshot.org/#/etherscoredao.eth/proposal/0xf826b191370b606016d3b4fc7703ab84722fc57c254780805447d8b6442b18ce #Snapshot
- #Bitcoin
Cycle structure - We are in Phase 1 of the bullish cycle
- I just minted Bridge to Base, celebrating the start of @BuildOnBase bringing billions of people onchain.
It’s Onchain Summer.
https://onchainsummer.xyz
- #BITCOIN THE 5TH BULL RUN IN HISTORY BEGINS
- #Bitcoin
Still on the exponential growth curve.
- Choose your money wisely. #BTC
- #Bitcoin $BTC
- Ethereum $ETH Exchange Outflow Volume (7d MA) just reached a 1-month low of $13,825,897.57
Previous 1-month low of $13,831,653.49 was observed on 07 July 2023
- #BTC Scenario
ETF’s mark the conclusion of Bitcoins first secular 🐂 market
- Next stop for #Bitcoin is the clouds, literally!
The final barrier between us and the next ATH run appears to be the 2 Week Ichimoku Cloud, which calls for at least a price of $40,200, and is usually exceeded.
Maybe, even I am not bullish enough... ⛈️
- It is very likely that #Bitcoin will reach the N28CT target of $34,500 in the next push higher
My model has nailed every prediction since its creation
-Bottom in Nov 2022
-Best cycle buying prices in green year
Time to accumulate is coming to an end..
- #Bitcoin Miners are currently recording extremely high Exchange interaction, sending an ATH of $128M to Exchanges, equivalent to 315% of their daily revenue
- 🚨🚨 The available supply of Bitcoin was growing in the past. This cycle is the first that Supply went down! 🥳
This is very good! 🥳🌊📈
Supply 📉 +Demand 📈 = Price 📈
#Bitcoin #BTC #HODL
- The market is starting to feel bullish. Can we trust feelings? Let’s look at a couple technical angles to see where we stand in the grand scheme of things.
- #BTC And through the clouds we go
- Lets keep it simple. Downtrend ongoing, forming lower lows.
#Bitcoin short term
- #Bitcoin
outlook 💝
- As the #Bitcoin prices drops, and mostly goes stagnant, price is starting to make a small return to the buy zone of the 3 Week RSI
This could be a very brief opportunity, don't squander it!
The 3 Week RSI will visit the danger zone again, but will you still be here to see it?
- #Bitcoin Pending Breakout (M)⌛️
Currently #BTC is struggling with the center line of the Bollinger Bands. Sooner or later it will break it & once that happens you know the deal : the upper line of the Bollinger Bands would be next.🎯💥
- #Bitcoin history has a great way of repeating itself, and unfortunately, this part, is the boring part
The market will not make it easy to hold your coins to the next cycle top
At this stage in previous halving cycles, long sideways periods are common
Patience breeds winners!
- This is a very obvious bottoming pattern in #Bitcoin history.
After a huge drop, $BTC forms an Ascending Parallel Channel and breaks above the upper channel line. A parabolic move follows then.
#BTC #Crypto
- Our Kappa strategy perfectly avoided the recent #BTC drop.
It is programmed to avoid all of BTC's drops and only play its technical bounces on small timferames.
2 years of research and development.
- #BITCOIN BULL RUN BEGINS.
- #Bitcoin Nothing Unusual
#BTC has this habit to react when approaching the top of the Gaussian Channel. Pausing or getting rejecting from it before resuming its course. Nothing unusual
- #Bitcoin could reach $61,000 or more 🔜🚀💥
Through #Bitcoin history whenever Stochastic RSI got back above 20🟢 it went straight to 80🔴. Recently it got back above 20 but is yet to complete its 100% move till the 80. It is currently only at 50% which leaves room to go up.
In parallel, it took on average 2-3 months for Stock RSI to go from 20 to 80. During these time lapses #BTC went up 165% on average.
Based on these assumptions, #Bitcoin could reach $61,000 by May-June of this year
- Halving progress 74%. #Bitcoin
- #Bitcoin anatomy 🫀
1. Halving
2. Bull run
3. Bear market
4. Pre-Halving run
(repeat 🔁)
to 1: As the block reward approaches zero, the impact of each halving on the market may diminish gradually.
to 2: The effect of the halving on the bull run has been significant in the past, with gains of 9896% ➡️3491%➡️725%➡️ ?. However, the effect may become less significant over time.
to 3: The halving has also had a significant impact on the bear market in the past, with losses of -87% ➡️-84%➡️-77%➡️ ?. However, the effect may become less severe over time.
to 4: We are currently in the pre-halving run🏃♀️, and while anything can happen, significant gains are highly likely.
- #BTC Vertical Accumulation looks complete
- `Are we getting the` #BTC `Bull Flag retest 2019 didn't offer?
$BTC` #Crypto`` #Bitcoin``
- #Bitcoin DOMINANCE UPDATE 💥 (W)
#BTCD is currently rejected at the top of the range.
If the weekly candle closes as it is, there's a greater chance of a pullback to Tenkan 🔴 & Kijun 🔵. And potentially to the Kumo (Cloud).
- #Bitcoin $BTC CME closed above the channel buy zone and into impulse lane.
Headed to the median at least, but I expect the upper boundary this year.
- #Bitcoin $30,000 was definitely programmed 🤝
Once #BTC closes above the centerline of the Bollinger Bands on the monthly TF, it will be time for the upper line to act like a magnet. 🧲
#Bullish 🚀🚀🚀
- #BTC Daily:
So Inflation ⬇️ hard
Fed tells you they are near pause
#DXY about to enter the morgue
A vol day w/o sustained stop-run on BTC=Spot demand 💪
Weekly Tradfi charts look like Picassos
And this is what #BTC is doing
Simple math really
- #Bitcoin
Cycles be like...
- #Bitcoin At the verge of something BIG !💥
According to SMI MFI, #BTC has plenty of room to go beast mode. 🐂🚀
- Predictable #Bitcoin
And once more, people will be surprised we neither went to 0, nor to 1M.
🍰
- 🔥🚀 We're getting closer to $ETH igniting #altseason!
I've been talking about it for a while now, and it's almost time for some explosive growth.
Don't miss out - spread the word & let's get this trending! 🌐💥
- #BITCOIN THE 4TH HISTORICAL BULL RUN BEGINS.
- Do not miss the opportunity to accumulate more #Bitcoin this time.
Chart comparison tells you what to do RIGHT NOW.
#BTC #Crypto
- #Bitcoin about to close UP for 3 months in a row.
This has signalled the start of a new BULL MARKET 3 times without fail. 🚀
- Lens Token DAO🤔⚡
Anyone Notice this one👀✅
It's Coming Soon 🔜
But When🤔🫠
Official Tweet ▶ https://twitter.com/LensProtocol/status/1640040697003757569?t=vDyi9kMGeCK_fQnDPoFFWA&s=19