Tom (@tomt3) • Hey
Hi
Publications
- I just minted 'Panda' on @titlesxyz #lens #web3
https://titles.xyz/collect/base/0x9524c194cb8ddc276ad4c4b61ec3533946844ee1
via @titlesxyz
- When Lily met Poppy at @lens/ethglobal İstanbul
Find the team on the ground to mint your exclusive @lens/fini
- Just minted Day 45 on @basepaint_xyz! Hundreds of pixel artists made this together on the blockchain. Minting is open only for 24h
https://basepaint.xyz/mint/45
- 🌟 Introducing **Choose Your Algorithm** at Lenster 🌟
Step into a new era of social media personalization with our unique 'Choose Your Algorithm' feature! 🚀✨
Explore our new collection of open-source algorithms powered by @karma3labs.lens and @lenster.lens ✨
Navigate the web the way you want. 🌐📊
Stay tuned more algorithms are on the way for ya!! 😉
- I just minted Base Day One, celebrating the start of @BuildOnBase bringing billions of people onchain.
It’s Onchain Summer.
https://onchainsummer.xyz/base
- 19
- https://lenster.xyz/settings/dispatcher
- Create funny and dank Lens memes. We’ll mirror and highlight our favorites.
We are running a competition on @memester-xyz.lens! Go to https://memester.xyz to submit your entry!
- Two new Discord roles on Lenster guild 👀
https://guild.xyz/lenster
- GM. Arbinaut 🥳 👨🚀 🚀🔵🔵
- Lfgroooooowwwwwwww
Credit @pedrovilela.lens
- $ARB PRICE SCENARIOS 🦅🔵
Investor price* → Market Cap 85M - ARB $0.07
Pessimistic → Market Cap 360M - ARB $0.30
Moderate → Market Cap 780M - ARB $0.65
Optimistic → Market Cap 1.4B - ARB null.20
Ecstatic 🎉 → Market Cap 3.0B - ARB $2.50
@Arbitrum Thread 🧵 - Let's estimate 🧠
$ARB is launching in 6 days
Snapshot Date: Feb 6th 2023
Many active DeFi got this airdrop (12% of the total supply)
How much could $ARB be worth a few days after launch?
1/18
Arbitrum One is the biggest Ethereum Layer2 blockchain in the space, by TVL and market share
• Market share: 55%
• TVL: $3.7B
2/18
Today we will roughly try to estimate $ARB price valuation a few days after launch - after the dust settles. By using:
• Total & initial circulating supply
• Market Benchmarks
• Percentage airdropped
3/18
TOKENOMICS
• Team & Advisors: 26.94%
• Investors: 17.53%
• Treasury: 42.78%
• Airdrop to users: 11.62%
• Airdrop to Arbitrum DAOs: 1.13%
4/18
TOKEN SUPPLY
• Total supply: 10B tokens (10,000,000,000)
• Circulating supply on 1st day: roughly 1.2B (1,200,000,000)
~12% of total supply
User airdrop is immediately unlocked. It's safe to assume that Airdrop to Arbitrum DAOs will not enter the market right away
5/18
AIRDROP CRITERIA
• Conducting transactions during 2-9 distinct months
• Transaction frequency & interaction (4-100)
• Arbitrum Nova activity: 3-10 transactions
• Bridging to Arbitrum & Arbitrum Nova
• Transaction value: $10k-$250k
• Providing liquidity: $10k-$250k
6/18
🔗 Check your eligibility here: arbitrum.foundation
🚨 Careful with scam links, always get your link from @Arbitrum twitter
Now, let's try to make scenarios for $ARB's price 👇
7/18
FDV AND MARKET CAP MEANING
• Fully Diluted Valuation (FDV) = total supply * token price
• Market cap = circulating supply * token price
With $ARB numbers:
FDV = 10B * token price
Market cap = 1.2B * token price
Token price = ❓
8/18
SPECULATING INVESTOR'S PRICE
According to Crunchbase, Offchain Labs raised 120M.
Investors are getting ~17% of the token supply, which is around 1.7B tokens.
If they bought 1.7B tokens for $120M, then that's around $0.07 per ARB. Pure speculation 👀
9/18
The best benchmarks for $ARB are Optimism and Polygon, but we can also work with other chains. Let's compare:
• Polygon $MATIC
• Optimism $OP
• Fantom $FTM
• Solana $SOL
10/18
Optimism $OP - the 2nd biggest Ethereum L2
• TVL: $950 million (DefiLlama)
• FDV: $10.8 billion
• Market cap: $800 million
If $ARB had this FDV, its price would be ~null.08
11/18
Polygon $MATIC
• TVL: null.05 billion
• FDV: $11.8 billion
• Market cap: $10.7 billion
If $ARB had this FDV, its price would be ~null.18
12/18
Fantom $FTM
• TVL: $445 million
• FDV: null.4 billion
• Market cap: null.2 billion
If $ARB had this FDV, its price would be ~$0.14
13/18
Solana $SOL
• TVL: $245 million
• Market cap: $7.7 billion
• FDV: $10.9 billion
If $ARB had this FDV, its price would be ~null.09
14/18
Summarizing:
• $ARB with the FDV of $OP: null.08
• $ARB with the FDV of $MATIC: null.18
• $ARB with the FDV of $FTM: $0.14
• $ARB with the FDV of $SOL: null.09
15/18
If the market prices ARB at the same level as OP and MATIC (~10B FDV) then token price could be ~null.00
In contrast, for ARB price to be $3.00, its FDV needs to be 3 times the size of OP's.
Yes, Arbitrum has two times Optimism's TVL, but I don't know if that is enough.
16/18
PRICE SCENARIOS
Pessimistic → Market Cap 360M - ARB $0.30
Moderate → Market Cap 780M - ARB $0.65
Optimistic → Market Cap 1.4B - ARB null.20
Ecstatic 🎉 → Market Cap 3.0B - ARB $2.50
17/18
The first hours of trading will probably be a mess, so expect volatility.
These numbers are just a price iteration and comparison to what's already out there. I don't expect them to make sense the first day of trading.
18/18
LIQUIDITY
Remember Optimism partnered with Wintermute for liquidity on $OP launch; we should wait to see how Arbitrum does it. I think they will surely take care of initial liquidity.
At which price would you sell $ARB?
⚡️ Join me on Telegram for lightning-fast alpha notifications: https://t.me/OlimpioAlpha
👥 Also, lots of DeFi and Airdrop talk is going on inside Earndrop's server, join here: https://earndrop.io/discord
- This is Lenny
- Bank of mom and dad always works
- 👋 Lens Frens!
Turn your Lens profile into an Apple or Google Wallet pass by using lens.ethpass.xyz.
Share your Lens profile by having others scan your QR code.
- SAT.
- Weekend
- Night Night
- 🎅🎄✨🎇🧨🌟🎉
Merry X'mas
- gm! We have updated our Discord server roles and permissions 🔒
**Bloomer** - Own a lens handle 🌿
**Early bloomer** - Signed the Lenster early user form before June 18, 2022 📝
**Builder** - Contributed to Lenster codebase and hold a GitPOAP 👨💻
and more. Check out https://guild.xyz/lenster to pick your roles and access all the server channels.
**PS: Check your wallet 😉 and make sure to claim all your roles for some alfa 🤫**
Thanks 💜
- We've integrated Lens Protocol 🌱🏰
What does this mean?
You can now create roles in a guild, based on someone:
- having a Lens profile
- following someone on Lens
- collecting a post
- mirroring a post
Lens requirements are composable with any combination of:
- fungible and non-fungible tokens on 17 chains
- over a dozen on-chain and VC integrations
- off-chain social data from Twitter, Discord and GitHub
All this to create roles and gated areas in Discord, Telegram, Google Workspace, GitHub and anywhere else with the Guild SDK.
Interoperability for communities is slowly but surely coming together.
- hello world.
- Some numbers 📊 from Lenster 🌸 for the past 4 days
**~100,000** page views 👀
**~12,000** unique visitors 👥
**~150** countries 🌎
**~2,600,000** edge CDN requests 🌐
**~50 GB** bandwidth from image CDN 🏞
still counting...
Thanks @lensprotocol for being with us from day one 🌿💚
- Hello World