shagrath (@shagrath) • Hey
shagrath (@shagrath) • Hey
Publications
- Collect it ✅
- "In-depth analysis of the behavior and psychology of Bitcoin holders for 2 to 3 years"
Historically, investors who held Bitcoin for two to three years have had the biggest returns in a four-year cycle. Aside from the excitement and expectations of January's spot ETF approval, this analysis will take a deep dive into the holders in their second to third years. First, let's see why this group is important.
Chart 1. Realized Market Cap - Overall UTXO Age Band (%)
When comparing the realized market capitalization of groups over the entire period, holders in their 2nd to 3rd year account for one-third, or 32.29%. Therefore, holders in their 2nd to 3rd year have the highest realized market capitalization of all holder groups, and their average unit price is likely to be supported or resistance to profit or loss.
Chart 2. Realized Market Cap - UTXO Age Band in Year 2-3 (%)
Compared to the past, the realized market capitalization ratio for year two to three holders is the highest in history, demonstrating a higher percentage of long-term investors than any other cycle.
Chart 3. Realized Price - UTXO age range for 2nd to 3rd year
'When Bitcoin reached its peak of $ 11.9k in June 2019, their realized price (average unit price) was 1.28k. Meanwhile, the group's recent plain is located at $ 48k and shows that the price of Bitcoin is near their plain resistance. This shows that long-term investors who have bought Bitcoin since January '21 to now are still close to breaking even.
Chart 4. Unrealized Net Profit and Loss (NUPL) for Year 2 - 3 & UTXO age band for Year 2 - 3
If you look at the NULP (blue line, left scale), you can see the gains and losses of holders in their 2nd to 3rd year, and the blue range below zero means they are losing money. You can see that the gains and losses of holders in their last 2nd to 3rd year are close to zero, which is different from June 2019 (red dotted lines), when their profits were at their peak at the time, but now their gains and losses are rising from near losses.
In conclusion, when comparing their past data, except for the macroeconomic situation of interest rate cuts, excitement and anxiety over the decision to approve spot ETFs, I don't think it's likely that the largest group, the holders of the 2nd to 3rd years, will put market pressure by selling volumes in large quantities when they turn into profits.
✅Manager
It's a bit long. To summarize, 'The 2nd to 3rd year accounts for the largest share of the total market capitalization, and their profit and loss will have the biggest impact on prices. However, as their profits and losses have recently been turning into losses → profits, they are more likely to hold rather than sell in the future.' 🥸
I think it's a pretty logical analysis, but it's not to be misunderstood that they're less likely to sell, not to argue that there won't be any short-term adjustments. Obviously, their weight is at its peak right now. So in the long run, they're going to be profit-taking as their profit or loss increases, they're going to have a lower weight and they're going to have a higher price. 🫠
In order to properly understand the author's analysis, it is necessary to focus on the change in their proportion from a long-term perspective. According to the author's analysis, if their proportion has fallen by 10-20%, Bitcoin is likely to be a high point. 😉
- Every web3 app in 2024
- In the tapestry of nature's artistry, a collection of beautiful pictures unfolds, capturing the breathtaking essence of the natural world. Each image tells a story of vibrant landscapes, cascading waterfalls, majestic mountains, blooming flowers, and serene forests. With every frame, we are reminded of the boundless beauty that surrounds us, inviting us to pause, admire, and appreciate the wonders of our planet. These pictures of nature serve as windows to our souls, connecting us to the profound harmony and awe-inspiring magnificence that exists beyond our everyday lives.
- طبیعت زیبای کشورمون 😍
آذر 1402
- هر کس دنیا را از زاویه دید خود قضاوت میکند...
گاهی بهتر است جای خود را برای بهتر دیدن عوض کنید
- #Bitcoin whales are coming
- Suggest a series for the weekend
Salad and the search for a show to watch 👀 I think I need some recommendations for it. What are you guys watching these days? 📺
- 𝚃𝚎𝚌𝚑𝚗𝚘 𝚁𝚘𝚘𝚜𝚝𝚎𝚛
this is one of those lost drawings on my notebooks
this rooster is special because every morning instead of simply crow it sings Sandstorm by Darude
all these drafts will be free to collect, im planning to create something different with all of them and i wanted to be free for OG holders supporting since the beginning 🫶🏽
- Lenny is heading to Devconnect and @lens/ethglobal İstanbul
- I would like to share some thoughts regarding Lens and profiles in it. Namely about their pumping. The idea came when an NFT in the form of a green man fell on my wallet. Let's get to the point.
What if all our skills (number of followers, posts, likes, reposts and other activities) change the appearance of our NFT in the form of a green character?
This type of functionality is implemented in the Zerion wallet. Where for every activity on the network (mainly for swaps) our character changes appearance - “Dynamic NFT”.
Thus, our account in Lens will be pumped up efficiently and it will be difficult for sibils with a bunch of profiles to conduct quality activity on their other accounts.
What do we end up with? Weeding out low-quality profiles and attracting new ones + incentive for early users, those who produce quality content.
Share your thoughts?
#Lens #Web3
- Welcome to the first @lens/thisweekon **AMA**.
We are more than happy to introduce our `first guest`, Cointelegraph's #7 of "top people in crypto and blockchain 2023" ( cointelegraph.com/top-people-… ):
✨ @lens/stani ✨
**AMA setup**
▶️ Please ask Stani anything in comments to this post.
▶️ Please ask your questions **before Thursday 9th of November 11:55pm UTC.**
▶️ Stani will start answering our questions from Friday 10th on.
▶️ Please ask 1 question in 1 comment.
▶️ Please check if your question was already asked.
TYSM @lens/stani for joining and happy AMA :-)
- روز سی و چهارم از کمپین رشد لنز
https://hey.xyz/u/xiaoyanzi
https://hey.xyz/u/oickill
https://hey.xyz/u/lemontd
https://hey.xyz/u/darkknight94
https://hey.xyz/u/gosmoden
https://hey.xyz/u/arbitrumhq
https://hey.xyz/u/wizardd
https://hey.xyz/u/ephyral
https://hey.xyz/u/00x06
https://hey.xyz/u/manijeh
دوستان رو فالو کنید
دوستانی که فالو میشن هم حتماً به مرور زمان بک بدن که لیمیت هم نشن، کسانی که بک ندن لینکشون برای آنفالو قرار میگیره
کامنت و میرور و کالکت فراموش نشه تا امتیاز اکانتهاتون بالا بره ❤️
- Top 7 Token Unlocks of the Upcoming Week
- #Bitcoin fear and greed index is breaking out above the 6 months high.
Greed is all over town.
- Jelly dudes #158
- 😅
- Cute dog
- Cute
- Zoey Deutch Warns Everyone to Not Smoke Woody Harrelson’s Weed
Zoey Deutch Warns Everyone to Not Smoke Woody Harrelson’s Weed
- ERASED #3
5 EDITIONS
2 WMATIC
25% MIRROR REFERRAL REWARD
#VIDEO #LENS #LENSART #CRYPTOART
- Cake or Real? | کیکه یا واقعی؟ با حضور امیرمحمد
Cake or Real? | کیکه یا واقعی؟ با حضور امیرمحمد
- 💥 Share Your Blue Theme Photo on Kaira 💥
Hi frens,
We adore the @lensprotocol and its various shades of green 💚
However, as much as we love green, we also have a deep affection for blue, especially Kaira blue 💙
We eagerly await your stunning blue-themed photos on this topic! 🙌
Here is the first photo from Kaira ⤵️
- GM
- 🍃
- **Who’s active today? 🏋🏽**
- Nice
- $CYBER looks ready to make next big move! Put SL below support level.
Join FREE telegram. Link in the bio.
- $MULTI is done with a retracement and now forming morning star pattern on daily TF chart. Long position with SL around 1.22
Join Free telegram channel for more updates. Link in the bio.
- PLEASE SHARE
🌟🎤 Calling all professional singers! Join us for a magnificent collaboration opportunity! 🌟🎤
🎵 Are you a professional singer with a passion for showcasing your extraordinary vocal talent? We have an exciting proposition for you! @lensvoice.lens is searching for talented artists like yourself to collaborate with us for the upcoming singing talent competition. 🎶
🌟 Here's how it works: We're seeking iconic songs from professional singers that will be chosen by the contestants to perform as cover songs during the competition. Your contribution will not only add flair to the competition, but it will also provide a platform for Lens' professional artists to shine! 🎤✨
💫 Your chosen song covers will not only be used for the competition but will also be featured across our LensVoice community, giving you incredible exposure as an artist and allowing you to captivate an even larger audience. It's a fantastic opportunity to share your talent and make a lasting impact! 📣
✨ So, dear professional singers, Share your song suggestions in the comments below or send us a direct message. We can't wait to hear your amazing ideas and collaborate with you to make this competition a truly unforgettable experience! 🌟🎵
📸 Don't forget to tag your fellow professional singers and spread the word about this incredible opportunity. Together, we can create magic and celebrate the talent that Lens' creative community has to offer! 🌟🎤
- Exchanges supported ZkSync Era∎ deposists/ withdrawals for ETH
Withdrawal fees:
1. Binance : 0.0003 ETH
2. OKX : 0.0004 ETH
3. Bybit: 0.0003 ETH
4. Bitrue: 0.0003 ETH
5. MEXC: -
- Omelet & nature ... what else do I need? 😍
- Gm frens 🌞
- Good morning ☀️☀️☀️
- **Gitcoin Grants 18** 🟢
11 days left 🚀 - https://lenster.xyz/gitcoin
- I just minted Summer Kevin, celebrating the start of @BuildOnBase bringing billions of people onchain.
It’s Onchain Summer.
https://onchainsummer.xyz/kevin
- Troubled developer China Evergrande Group has filed for U.S. bankruptcy protection amid growing fears about China's property crisis and its economic consequences.
Source: http://Investing.com
- “you owe it to yourself” — my submission for #openlens 🌸
unlimited collects for 7 days, 1WMATIC
thank you for the great initiative, @cybershakti.lens 💜looking forward to seeing everyone’s work.
- A.I. Seasons!
What's your favourite season?
P.S. I originally made these for OpenLens, with the idea being that each season would be a separate post and everyone would collect their favourite season, but it turns out we could only submit one post for OpenLens. So here it is now!
- (Kitco News) - Thursday, August 3--August **Bitcoin** futures prices are near steady in early U.S. trading Thursday. Recent price action has negated a price downtrend line on the daily bar chart, to give the bulls a bit of momentum.
**Bitcoin** August 3 daily …
https://www.kitco.com/news/2023-08-03/Bitcoin-August-3-daily-chart-alert-Sideways-trading-this-week.html
- If #IMX comes to the 0.7188 region, I'm thinking of opening a long with a 2% stop.
#btc #bitcoin #bnb
- (SEC) has acknowledged the Spot #Bitcoin ETF applications submitted by asset management giants #BlackRock and Fidelity,
#Binance
- Pro #Bitcoin Presidential candidate Robert Kennedy Jr beats Biden with higher favourability rating in new poll.
- I just minted 420.69 GHO in @aaveaave.lens
- Good morning 🌞🌞
- I just voted "For" on "Accelerating Arbitrum - leveraging Camelot as an ecosystem hub to support native builders" https://snapshot.org/#/arbitrumfoundation.eth/proposal/0x6b001068a3aa7f58e0e334a1f717be2145eb4c7b3f3af479cd827020aa2993a6 #Snapshot
- ⭐️What’s new this week? 🔙
Join us on last week recap 🧵
————————————-
🗳️ Vote for our next S4 Priorities. We build this together! [ https://lenster.xyz/posts/0xe5bf-0xa4 ]
💵 @gooddollarorg integration [ https://twitter.com/talentprotocol/status/1669739553396084736?s=61&t=pWqrvC0Vztx_5o6OsJUF-g ]
☎️ We had our Community Call #18. Check the recap! [ https://twitter.com/talentprotocol/status/1669803253926707200?s=61&t=pWqrvC0Vztx_5o6OsJUF-g ]
👷🏼♂️ #BuildersWeek recap is up. Discover all about the event [ https://twitter.com/talentprotocol/status/1668673617037590528?s=61&t=pWqrvC0Vztx_5o6OsJUF-g ]
👨🏼💻 We are hiring! Are you a Full Stack Developer? Come and Join Talent Protocol [ https://twitter.com/talentprotocol/status/1668570648233254915?s=61&t=pWqrvC0Vztx_5o6OsJUF-g ]
🇳🇬 Talent Fair '23 sponsored by Talent Protocol [ https://twitter.com/sulemanhezekiah/status/1669450847275692034?s=61&t=pWqrvC0Vztx_5o6OsJUF-g ]
- Just a few years ago almost all of these major institutions laughed at **Bitcoin** or called it criminal. Now Bitcoiners are laughing.....straight to the bank....self custody bank that is!
- #1inch
For 1 inch, Losing $0.3170 will be dangerous, it might drop to $0.27
#Altseason #Cryptocurency #Ethererum #Cryptocurency #liquidation
- $BTC
Nothing has changed, BTC still doing what I said. If you need to drop must range here and generate liquidity, or close weekly above 31.4k for 40k.
Make it simple just check quote tweet.
$SUI $ARB $VRA $BCH #bitcoin #Altseason #Cryptocurency #Ethererum #Cryptocurency #liquidation #heatmap #DOXcoin