pjcooper (@pjcooper) • Hey
pjcooper (@pjcooper) • Hey
Publications
- $10 trillion BlackRock officially files for spot #Bitcoin ETF
- 11,000.00 #BTC ($329,638,376) just went into Bitfinex. For the time being, there has been no information about the exchange's internal activity, so we will deal with institutional movements for the use of post-CPI futures. Volatility can increase at #bitcoin .
- A historic view on each bear market's bottom formation between on-chain indicators Realized Price and CVDD. #Bitcoin
- This meeting is being priced as a 0.25% addition, probability of 66.7% for the increase compared to 33.3% for a pause in the increases.
Next meeting takes place on May 3rd, we will not have meetings in April.
- I look at this week's economic calendar. These will probably be the events that can break BTC's low volatility.
Mainly CPI/core and Unemployment claims will be the main data to define the Fed's positioning in the next meeting.
- Difficult to hit short-term movement in this type of chart setup.
Here in my view we have two scenarios:
1) Breakout above 29.3k with support retest. 2) Breakout below 26.5k with resistance retest.
What is your opinion? $BTC
- BMI just crossed above the lower blue band suggesting the "re-accumulation" phase of the cycle has begun. i.e. the bottom has formed (smart money investors accumulating) rejecting further lows, creating a low volatility bottom, price moves up in a choppy sideways/bullish manner.
- An On-Chain Thesis for $100K #Bitcoin "The estimated date for bitcoin’s next halving event is 29th.Apr.2024, and it will increase the scarcity of the cryptocurrency by dropping the block reward from 6.25 to 3.125."
- #BITCOIN BEAR MARKET OFFICIALLY ENDED!
- Vela stands for sail, but our mission calls for a more powerful driving force Fuelled by a nuclear engine's unmatched force, we press on toward our vision Unwavering focus: official launch The stage is set: more features, new pairs, innovative infrastructure and many surprises
- Still following this. You know whats next.
- Coinbase CEO - #Bitcoin Lightning is great and something we’ll integrate.
- Bitcoin capitulation including miner capitulation happened in November Since $60.000 I have been calling that BTC bottom will be at $18.000, and indeed. The plan fully played out Bought as much #BTC as possible in region of 16-18k and won’t sell
- null = 3,571 SATS #Bitcoin still cheap
- #Bitcoin S2F model was published 4y ago and is alive & kicking! S2F measures (unforgeable) scarcity: immutable issuance schedule, 21M supply cap. S2F model correctly predicted BTC pump after 2020 halving. S2F predicts another pump at 2024 halving
- 55k Blocks until next Halving. #Bitcoin
- #Bitcoin broke out double top pattern and retested. $BTC is ready for next Bull Run.zv
- #Bitcoin Whales buy in bear markets!
- Bitcoin: Difficulty Adjustment Percent Change
- The S&P500 rally is blinding investors to the dangers of tightening lending standards It’s a major economic warning signal
- Lens signless transactions are now better, faster, stronger!
You can upgrade your signless transactions on @lenster.lens: https://lenster.xyz/settings/dispatcher
Coming on other community-built applications 🔜!
- The #Bitcoin Whitepaper has been embedded in every MacBook since… 2020. True story.
- Peace between Iran and Saudi Arabia inched closer as their Foreign Ministers met in Beijing this week. China keeps making BIG deals!
- Bored Ape Yacht Club, ApeFest, Yes.
- Bitcoin
- Crazy
- Posers! Commanders and the Posers team voted to reduce the Open Edition mint time to 24 hours. For many reasons we concluded it was the best solution for everyone Free land claims for every 5 Posers will be available for 48 hours! Mint date: April 13
- Upgrade your dispatcher to the latest version and experience the power of Lens signless transactions! Don't miss out on faster and stronger transactions - update your dispatcher on Lenster today
- Bitcoin: Accumulation Trend Score
- 2014: Apple bans #Bitcoin from AppStore. 2023: Apple puts the #Bitcoin Whitepaper on every MacBook. It’s happening…
BTC_Archive
- Almost there. Last chance to buy below 30k?
- 2 Reasons Why BTC's Recent Rally Abated 1- Short-term holders 2- Whales
- Recently, the price of Bitcoin increased from ~$24K to ~$28K, but now the pace of the price rally has halted. In fact, it fell from a nine-month high of $28.8k to $26.9k in the last week.
- 2- Whales have been spending more of their Bitcoin than usual when the price was around $28K. As a result, their daily spending increased above 320K bitcoin, which reached 34%, a percentage of total BTC being spent, the highest since Dec ‘22.
- This is primarily for two reasons. 1- Short-term holders decided to sell it and take some profit or exist the position at their realized price (average cost basis).
- As a final note, 6-12-month-old coins realized price (26.8K) seems to define the mid-point of the new price range BTC has reached recently. It functions as a support and resistance level when the volatility increases.
- China and France complete first LNG gas trade using Chinese Yuan, ending reliance on the US dollar for energy trades.
- Starting today, you can now invest in $RDNT v2 Our friends at @RDNTCapital recently migrated their token to support @LayerZero_Labs 's Omnichain Fungible Token standard and we are more than happy to support their effort Start DCAing now
- $ARB PRICE SCENARIOS 🦅🔵
Investor price* → Market Cap 85M - ARB $0.07
Pessimistic → Market Cap 360M - ARB $0.30
Moderate → Market Cap 780M - ARB $0.65
Optimistic → Market Cap 1.4B - ARB null.20
Ecstatic 🎉 → Market Cap 3.0B - ARB $2.50
@Arbitrum Thread 🧵 - Let's estimate 🧠
$ARB is launching in 6 days
Snapshot Date: Feb 6th 2023
Many active DeFi got this airdrop (12% of the total supply)
How much could $ARB be worth a few days after launch?
1/18
Arbitrum One is the biggest Ethereum Layer2 blockchain in the space, by TVL and market share
• Market share: 55%
• TVL: $3.7B
2/18
Today we will roughly try to estimate $ARB price valuation a few days after launch - after the dust settles. By using:
• Total & initial circulating supply
• Market Benchmarks
• Percentage airdropped
3/18
TOKENOMICS
• Team & Advisors: 26.94%
• Investors: 17.53%
• Treasury: 42.78%
• Airdrop to users: 11.62%
• Airdrop to Arbitrum DAOs: 1.13%
4/18
TOKEN SUPPLY
• Total supply: 10B tokens (10,000,000,000)
• Circulating supply on 1st day: roughly 1.2B (1,200,000,000)
~12% of total supply
User airdrop is immediately unlocked. It's safe to assume that Airdrop to Arbitrum DAOs will not enter the market right away
5/18
AIRDROP CRITERIA
• Conducting transactions during 2-9 distinct months
• Transaction frequency & interaction (4-100)
• Arbitrum Nova activity: 3-10 transactions
• Bridging to Arbitrum & Arbitrum Nova
• Transaction value: $10k-$250k
• Providing liquidity: $10k-$250k
6/18
🔗 Check your eligibility here: arbitrum.foundation
🚨 Careful with scam links, always get your link from @Arbitrum twitter
Now, let's try to make scenarios for $ARB's price 👇
7/18
FDV AND MARKET CAP MEANING
• Fully Diluted Valuation (FDV) = total supply * token price
• Market cap = circulating supply * token price
With $ARB numbers:
FDV = 10B * token price
Market cap = 1.2B * token price
Token price = ❓
8/18
SPECULATING INVESTOR'S PRICE
According to Crunchbase, Offchain Labs raised 120M.
Investors are getting ~17% of the token supply, which is around 1.7B tokens.
If they bought 1.7B tokens for $120M, then that's around $0.07 per ARB. Pure speculation 👀
9/18
The best benchmarks for $ARB are Optimism and Polygon, but we can also work with other chains. Let's compare:
• Polygon $MATIC
• Optimism $OP
• Fantom $FTM
• Solana $SOL
10/18
Optimism $OP - the 2nd biggest Ethereum L2
• TVL: $950 million (DefiLlama)
• FDV: $10.8 billion
• Market cap: $800 million
If $ARB had this FDV, its price would be ~null.08
11/18
Polygon $MATIC
• TVL: null.05 billion
• FDV: $11.8 billion
• Market cap: $10.7 billion
If $ARB had this FDV, its price would be ~null.18
12/18
Fantom $FTM
• TVL: $445 million
• FDV: null.4 billion
• Market cap: null.2 billion
If $ARB had this FDV, its price would be ~$0.14
13/18
Solana $SOL
• TVL: $245 million
• Market cap: $7.7 billion
• FDV: $10.9 billion
If $ARB had this FDV, its price would be ~null.09
14/18
Summarizing:
• $ARB with the FDV of $OP: null.08
• $ARB with the FDV of $MATIC: null.18
• $ARB with the FDV of $FTM: $0.14
• $ARB with the FDV of $SOL: null.09
15/18
If the market prices ARB at the same level as OP and MATIC (~10B FDV) then token price could be ~null.00
In contrast, for ARB price to be $3.00, its FDV needs to be 3 times the size of OP's.
Yes, Arbitrum has two times Optimism's TVL, but I don't know if that is enough.
16/18
PRICE SCENARIOS
Pessimistic → Market Cap 360M - ARB $0.30
Moderate → Market Cap 780M - ARB $0.65
Optimistic → Market Cap 1.4B - ARB null.20
Ecstatic 🎉 → Market Cap 3.0B - ARB $2.50
17/18
The first hours of trading will probably be a mess, so expect volatility.
These numbers are just a price iteration and comparison to what's already out there. I don't expect them to make sense the first day of trading.
18/18
LIQUIDITY
Remember Optimism partnered with Wintermute for liquidity on $OP launch; we should wait to see how Arbitrum does it. I think they will surely take care of initial liquidity.
At which price would you sell $ARB?
⚡️ Join me on Telegram for lightning-fast alpha notifications: https://t.me/OlimpioAlpha
👥 Also, lots of DeFi and Airdrop talk is going on inside Earndrop's server, join here: https://earndrop.io/discord
- What do we have here?
- ww that’s incredible, how do merchants cash out the crypto?
- gm! Capturing the luminescent essence of nature's magic, this breathtaking artwork serves as a poignant reminder of the fragile beauty we must protect. #FridayVibes #NatureArt #Bioluminescence #ProtectOurPlanet
- Gitcoin is evolving 🦋
Gitcoin Grants will continue to be a public good on which the web3 ecosystem can rely. Soon, though, we’ll also be launching a concurrent offering: Grants Protocol 🍃
https://go.gitcoin.co/blog/introduction-to-grants-protocol