Aliceunderground β± β± (@panews) β’ Hey
A web3 π
Publications
- gm Lenster fam πΈ
We are excited to announce the launch of our new Snapshot voting feature. Now you can have your say on important community decisions by simply voting from Lenster.
If you paste any Snapshot URL, it will turn into an interactive widget where you can vote for a proposal. You can also use it with your Lens follower NFTs by configuring Snapshot strategies π
Vote us below if you like this feature π https://snapshot.org/#/yoginth.eth/proposal/0x9287c40edcd68c362c7c4139fe3489bbaaa27cf4de68be5c218a82d0f252e718
- I'm saying my piece in the #futureofsocial by signing the @t2world.lens manifesto. Which values do you support?
https://manifesto-app.t2.world/share/clg4ce0a73968651fmct9j6ufm6
- $ARB PRICE SCENARIOS π¦
π΅
Investor price* β Market Cap 85M - ARB $0.07
Pessimistic β Market Cap 360M - ARB $0.30
Moderate β Market Cap 780M - ARB $0.65
Optimistic β Market Cap 1.4B - ARB null.20
Ecstatic π β Market Cap 3.0B - ARB $2.50
@Arbitrum Thread 𧡠- Let's estimate π§
$ARB is launching in 6 days
Snapshot Date: Feb 6th 2023
Many active DeFi got this airdrop (12% of the total supply)
How much could $ARB be worth a few days after launch?
1/18
Arbitrum One is the biggest Ethereum Layer2 blockchain in the space, by TVL and market share
β’ Market share: 55%
β’ TVL: $3.7B
2/18
Today we will roughly try to estimate $ARB price valuation a few days after launch - after the dust settles. By using:
β’ Total & initial circulating supply
β’ Market Benchmarks
β’ Percentage airdropped
3/18
TOKENOMICS
β’ Team & Advisors: 26.94%
β’ Investors: 17.53%
β’ Treasury: 42.78%
β’ Airdrop to users: 11.62%
β’ Airdrop to Arbitrum DAOs: 1.13%
4/18
TOKEN SUPPLY
β’ Total supply: 10B tokens (10,000,000,000)
β’ Circulating supply on 1st day: roughly 1.2B (1,200,000,000)
~12% of total supply
User airdrop is immediately unlocked. It's safe to assume that Airdrop to Arbitrum DAOs will not enter the market right away
5/18
AIRDROP CRITERIA
β’ Conducting transactions during 2-9 distinct months
β’ Transaction frequency & interactionΒ (4-100)
β’ Arbitrum Nova activity: 3-10 transactions
β’ Bridging to Arbitrum & Arbitrum Nova
β’ Transaction value: $10k-$250k
β’ Providing liquidity: $10k-$250k
6/18
π Check your eligibility here: arbitrum.foundation
π¨ Careful with scam links, always get your link from @Arbitrum twitter
Now, let's try to make scenarios for $ARB's price π
7/18
FDV AND MARKET CAP MEANING
β’ Fully Diluted Valuation (FDV) = total supply * token price
β’ Market cap = circulating supply * token price
With $ARB numbers:
FDV = 10B * token price
Market cap = 1.2B * token price
Token price = β
8/18
SPECULATING INVESTOR'S PRICE
According to Crunchbase, Offchain Labs raised 120M.
Investors are getting ~17% of the token supply, which is around 1.7B tokens.
If they bought 1.7B tokens for $120M, then that's around $0.07 per ARB. Pure speculation π
9/18
The best benchmarks for $ARB are Optimism and Polygon, but we can also work with other chains. Let's compare:
β’ Polygon $MATIC
β’ Optimism $OP
β’ Fantom $FTM
β’ Solana $SOL
10/18
Optimism $OP - the 2nd biggest Ethereum L2
β’ TVL: $950 million (DefiLlama)
β’ FDV: $10.8 billion
β’ Market cap: $800 million
If $ARB had this FDV, its price would be ~null.08
11/18
Polygon $MATIC
β’ TVL: null.05 billion
β’ FDV: $11.8 billion
β’ Market cap: $10.7 billion
If $ARB had this FDV, its price would be ~null.18
12/18
Fantom $FTM
β’ TVL: $445 million
β’ FDV: null.4 billion
β’ Market cap: null.2 billion
If $ARB had this FDV, its price would be ~$0.14
13/18
Solana $SOL
β’ TVL: $245 million
β’ Market cap: $7.7 billion
β’ FDV: $10.9 billion
If $ARB had this FDV, its price would be ~null.09
14/18
Summarizing:
β’ $ARB with the FDV of $OP: null.08
β’ $ARB with the FDV of $MATIC: null.18
β’ $ARB with the FDV of $FTM: $0.14
β’ $ARB with the FDV of $SOL: null.09
15/18
If the market prices ARB at the same level as OP and MATIC (~10B FDV) then token price could be ~null.00
In contrast, for ARB price to be $3.00, its FDV needs to be 3 times the size of OP's.
Yes, Arbitrum has two times Optimism's TVL, but I don't know if that is enough.
16/18
PRICE SCENARIOS
Pessimistic β Market Cap 360M - ARB $0.30
Moderate β Market Cap 780M - ARB $0.65
Optimistic β Market Cap 1.4B - ARB null.20
Ecstatic π β Market Cap 3.0B - ARB $2.50
17/18
The first hours of trading will probably be a mess, so expect volatility.
These numbers are just a price iteration and comparison to what's already out there. I don't expect them to make sense the first day of trading.
18/18
LIQUIDITY
Remember Optimism partnered with Wintermute for liquidity on $OP launch; we should wait to see how Arbitrum does it. I think they will surely take care of initial liquidity.
At which price would you sell $ARB?
β‘οΈ Join me on Telegram for lightning-fast alpha notifications: https://t.me/OlimpioAlpha
π₯ Also, lots of DeFi and Airdrop talk is going on inside Earndrop's server, join here: https://earndrop.io/discord
- This is Lenny
- GM
- π₯ Unlock your web3 social presence with #TopScore! Stand out from the crowd & explore your self-building potential! ποΌ@knn3_network #Lens #KNN3Network
https://topscore.knn3.xyz/nft/0xa3d4da2c3d6DA86ba95d6649789d5B3a41e0d66F?profileId=21846
- The community has spoken π we have the π’ light to deploy Aave Protocol V3 on Ethereum Mainnet β‘οΈ.
More details to come tomorrow πΒ .
Thanks to the Aave community for voting π³οΈ, let's celebrate together and collect this exclusive Aave V3 ghost π»
- In celebration of this beautiful journey we embarked upon a decade ago and what is to follow next -- we will establish a fundraiser via the crafting of NFT Amulets.
Mirror and use #mwnft to show your support!
- gm lens frens π
Today I have made an important decision in my life π’
I quit my job today and going to focus full-time on maintaining the first-ever open-source frontend @lenster.lens πΈ powered by @lensprotocol πΏ.
Building social media was my dream since 10th grade, I built more than 4 social media in public but all failed, Lenster is my 5th one and itβs going crazy β‘οΈ.
I believe building in public is key π to the success of a product.
We have a lot of items queued up in the roadmap, be excited about it πΊ
**Collect this post for 2 WMATIC and support Lensterβs development π**
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Prompt:
, by Sophie Taeuber-Arp, cgsociety, video art, cute funny ghost, in a movie still cinematic, r/aww, killstar, behance hd.
All transactions are currently gasless and mint as a free collect.
@thegallerydao.lens @selas.lens @lensprotocol
Check out bit.ly/lensai
- Just getting started in web3 vs. when it all clicks. The deeper you go, the brighter it gets. @rabbithole.lensβ