Sagor (@oxyaimitch) • Hey
Sagor (@oxyaimitch) • Hey
Publications
- The ETH ETF trade: how I'm thinking about this
There are several key pieces in this trade, some known and some unknown. So will lay some out:
Known(ish):
-It will be approved soon (okay this is not a lock but seems to be the case)
-Grayscale's ETHE has close to 3MM ETH (2.5% of float) that has been trapped for years (GBTC had 626k BTC, 3.2% of float, including a large % that was toxic in BK estates). There will be sell flows from people who were trapped and now get a favorable exit with no discount to NAV.
-there will likely be some marketing / PR push ahead of launch. How hard Fink leans into tech play/tokenization narrative and public appearances is a factor.
-there will be no staking right away. This makes it an ever so slightly worse product. TradFi loves yield. Staking yield is both low and not risk free. But eventually they will want to stake.
-there's no environmental FUD with Ethereum's PoS as there was with Bitcoin's PoW
Unknown:
-how long it will take to launch (could be weeks or months)
-what will be the state of macro (risk on/risk off) when it launches. If SP500 is 5700 vs 5000, that makes a big difference (ES is ~5345 right now, an all time high)
-what the inflows will be (expectations seem low via Balchunas) vs their expectations
-what sorts of flows will issuers such as Blackrock line up for launch? $ 1B USD into ETH is far more impactful than $ 1B USD into BTC due to size.
-There is a lot of talk about politics and how crypto is becoming a major election issue. I don't totally buy this. I doubt it's a top 10 issue maybe not even top 25. I don't think it's going to decide PA or WI. There are like 3 states that matter. Let's see I guess.
Among other things
Then the setup. Well, when the BTC spot ETF was approved in January, it was the first of its kind. We didn't have any real example (recent or otherwise) to go on where with this one we will have that availability heuristic. Anyone can observe that BTC grinded up into approval, had one final leg up on approval, and then dumped ~22% before ripping ~100% to new highs.
So the easiest thing to expect is that it will follow a similar fractal. But now that this JUST PLAYED OUT, it's in everyones' recent memory, so maybe it will be different. Anyone who sold the news on BTC approval actually made a bad sell insofar as they didn't scoop their full bag back lower. I suspect this happened to many. This gets even more painful for them if they're trading with taxes.
So what's different here, besides that we have a recent comp this time:
-lower % of float in Grayscale + presumably less toxic
-was priced at ~10% approval into the approval whereas BTC was priced at >90% for some months and 50-70% for some months before that
-macro (maybe). Since we don't know right now how long the S1 process will take, we won't know the macro environment until the time comes.
-everyones' expectations (explained some above)
-how hard this will be sold by Fink/issuers
-whether Vanguard will allow clients to buy, whether JPM is more positive towards it than Bitcoin, and general TradFi reception
-the expectations of flows. Balchunas/Seyffart set expectations pretty high for the Bitcoin ETFs and yet they were still exceeded, shattering all the records for ETF launches. Here the expectations seem to be quite low. Leaves a lot of room to surprise to the upside if they don't update their forecasts. I find their reasoning wholly unconvincing and relish the opportunity to fade this again, like with their "slim to none" approval odds call last week.
-we have some data from HK/Canada exchange traded products. I don't think this is particularly useful but it's also not nothing. We'll see.
-important to note price was ~$ 3000 yesterday and $ 3790 as I'm writing this. Take note of that and again what the price is on the day it goes live. If it launches at $ 3800 that is a lot different than launching at $ 7000. Important to keep everything in context.
Lots of moving pieces here. Worth keeping a pulse on everything.
- Ambit's first defi app, Ambit Finance, is launching on Arbitrum this week!
Build a diverse portfolio while borrowing with @lens/ambitfinance
- EVERYTHING HAS CHANGED.
Democrats pushed back against Biden and Warren and voted for crypto.
The FDIC chair that Warren was privately protecting and who orchestrated Chokepoint 2.0 is stepping down.
The ETH ETFs are likely to be approved now as a result of the tide change.
Absolutely amazing.
- Join the Caldera Crusade Campaign! ✅
@lens/calderaxyz is a rollup deployment platform that enables the launch of high-performance, customizable, application-specific rollups using Arbitrum Nitro and OPStack.
🔹 Raised $ 9M in funding.
🔹 Backed by Sequoia Capital, Dragonfly, and more.
Today, they have announced the "Caldera Crusade," a month-long journey across the Caldera ecosystem!
🔥 Complete 8 quests powered by Galxe to earn a special Soulbound Crusade NFT.
Start here: app.galxe.com/quest/Caldera/…
Those who are dedicated enough to acquire all 8 OATs will qualify for the special Soulbound Crusade NFT.
Currently, Quest 1 is live, with the remaining quests rolling out over the next 30 days.
- 🇺🇸LINDSEY GRAHAM: ICC GOOD/BAD DEPENDS ON WHO THEY WANT TO ARREST
On Putin's arrest warrant from the ICC:
"The decision by the ICC to issue an arrest warrant for Vladimir Putin is a giant step in the right direction for the international community. It is more than justified by the evidence.
To forgive and forget Putin's war crimes – that are occurring on an industrial scale – would irrevocably damage the Rule of Law-based world order established at the end of World War II."
On Netanyahu's possible arrest warrant from the ICC:
"The Attorney General's decision is disgraceful and a slap in the face of the independent judiciary in Israel.
I will work with my colleagues in Congress to impose tough sanctions on the International Criminal Court."
Sources: Al Jazeera, Lindsey Graham Official Website
- Massive $ETH move
Waiting for ETF formal approval + new all-time high yearly candle close for bullish confirmation
Then I'll wait for the yearly bullish retest to confirm the confirmation
- We hope Almighty God will return the respected, esteemed President and his entourage to the arms of the nation.
- 🪦 List of assassinated and executed heads of states and government since 1900:
🇮🇹 King of Italy (1900)
🇺🇸 President of the US (1901)
🇷🇸 King of Serbia (1903)
🇷🇸 Prime Minister of Serbia (1903)
🇧🇬 Prime Minister of Bulgaria (1907)
🇵🇹 King of Portugal (1908)
🇨🇳 Emperor of China (1908)
🇪🇬 Prime Minister of Egypt (1910)
🇷🇺 Prime Minister of Russia (1911)
🇩🇴 President of the Dominican Republic (1911)
🇪🇸 Prime Minister of Spain (1912)
🇸🇻 President of El Salvador (1913)
🇲🇽 President of Mexico (1913)
🇬🇷 King of Greece (1913)
🇭🇹 President of Haiti (1915)
🇵🇹 President of Portugal (1918)
🇦🇫 Emir of Afghanistan (1919)
🇷🇺 Supreme Ruler of Russia (1920)
🇲🇽 President of Mexico (1920)
🇪🇸 Prime Minister of Spain (1921)
🇵🇹 Prime Minister of Portugal (1921)
🇯🇵 Prime Minister of Japan (1921)
🇵🇱 President of Poland (1922)
🇧🇬 Prime Minister of Bulgaria (1923)
🇸🇩 Governor of Sudan (1924)
🇺🇦 President of Ukraine (1926)
🇨🇳 President of China (1928)
🇫🇷 President of France (1932)
🇯🇵 Prime Minister of Japan (1932)
🇵🇪 President of Peru (1933)
🇦🇫 King of Afghanistan (1933)
🇷🇴 Prime Minister of Romania (1933)
🇦🇹 Chancellor of Austria (1934)
King of Yugoslavia (1934)
🇷🇴 Prime Minister of Romania (1939)
🇪🇬 Prime Minister of Egypt (1945)
🇧🇴 President of Bolivia (1946)
🇲🇲 Premier of Burma (1947)
🇾🇪 Imam of Yemen (1948)
🇪🇬 Prime Minister of Egypt (1948)
🇸🇾 President of Syria (1949)
🇸🇾 Prime Minister of Syria (1949)
🇮🇷 Prime Minister of Iran (1949)
🇸🇾 President of Syria (1950)
🇻🇪 President of Venezuela (1950)
🇮🇷 Prime Minister of Iran (1951)
🇯🇴 King of Jordan (1951)
🇵🇰 Prime Minister of Pakistan (1951)
🇵🇦 President of Panama (1955)
🇳🇮 President of Nicaragua (1956)
🇬🇹 President of Guatemala (1957)
🇯🇴 Prime Minister of Jordan (1958)
🇮🇶 King of Iraq (1958)
🇯🇴 Prime Minister of Jordan (1960)
🇪🇹 Prime Minister of Ethiopia (1960)
🇩🇴 President of the Dominican Republic (1961)
🇧🇮 Prime Minister of Burundi (1961)
🇹🇬 President of Togo (1963)
🇮🇶 Prime Minister of Iraq (1963)
🇻🇳 President of the Republic of Vietnam (1963)
🇺🇸 President of the US (1963)
🇧🇹 Prime Minister of Bhutan (1964)
🇮🇷 Prime Minister of Iran (1965)
🇳🇬 Prime Minister of Nigeria (1966)
🇳🇬 Head of State of Nigeria (1966)
🇿🇦 Prime Minister of South Africa (1966)
🇸🇴 President of Somalia (1969)
🇯🇴 Prime Minister of Jordan (1971)
President of Zanzibar (1972)
🇪🇸 Prime Minister of Spain (1973)
🇲🇬 President of Madagascar (1975)
🇸🇦 King of Saudi Arabia (1975)
🇹🇩 President of Chad (1975)
🇰🇭 Prime Minister of Cambodia (1975)
🇧🇩 President of Bangladesh (1975)
🇧🇩 Prime Minister of Bangladesh (1975)
🇳🇬 Head of State of Nigeria (1976)
🇨🇬 President of Congo (1977)
🇾🇪 President of North Yemen (1977)
🇦🇫 President of Afghanistan (1978)
🇰🇲 President of the Comoros (1978)
🇾🇪 President of North Yemen (1978)
🇬🇼 Prime Minister of Guinea-Bissau (1978)
🇰🇷 President of South Korea (1979)
🇱🇷 President of Liberia (1980)
🇰🇬 Prime Minister of Kyrgyzstan (1980)
🇵🇹 Prime Minister of Portugal (1980)
🇧🇩 President of Bangladesh (1981)
🇮🇷 Prime Minister of Iran (1981)
🇮🇷 President of Iran (1981)
🇪🇬 President of Egypt (1981)
🇱🇧 President-elect of Lebanon (1982)
🇬🇩 Prime Minister of Grenada (1983)
🇮🇳 Prime Minister of India (1984)
🇵🇼 President of Palau (1985)
🇸🇪 Prime Minister of Sweden (1986)
🇱🇧 Prime Minister of Lebanon (1987)
🇧🇫 President of Burkina Faso (1987)
🇱🇧 President of Lebanon (1989)
🇰🇲 President of the Comoros (1989)
🇷🇴 President of Romania (1989)
🇱🇷 President of Liberia (1990)
🇩🇿 President of Algeria (1992)
🇱🇰 President of Sri Lanka (1993)
🇧🇮 President of Burundi (1993)
🇷🇼 President of Rwanda (1994)
🇧🇮 President of Burundi (1994)
🇷🇼 Prime Minister of Rwanda (1994)
🇮🇱 Prime Minister of Israel (1995)
🇳🇪 President of Niger (1999)
🇦🇲 Prime Minister of Armenia (1999)
🇨🇩 President of the DR of the Congo (2001)
🇳🇵 King of Nepal (2001)
🇷🇸 Prime Minister of Serbia (2003)
🇱🇧 Prime Minister of Lebanon (2005)
🇬🇼 President of Guinea-Bissau (2009)
🇹🇩 President of Chad (2021)
🇭🇹 President of Haiti (2021)
This list is not exhaustive
- Excel has more than 750m users but only a few know how to use it.
Here are 7 Excel hacks you need to know:
- 🚨🇷🇺🇰🇵 Preparations are underway for President Putin to visit North Korea for the first time since his visit in 2000, when he met with then North Korean leader Kim Il sung, father of Kim Jong un.
- BREAKING: 🇮🇷 Iran helicopter accident.
Who was on the missing helicopter?
• Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi
• Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amirabdollahian
• East Azerbaijan Governor Malek Rahmati
• Ayatollah Mohammad Ali Ale-Hashem, representative of Iranian Supreme Leader to East Azerbaijan
- Holding PURR currently yields you between 0.6% and 1% of meme coin airdrop per day, and people still don't even know that Hyperliquid is its own L1.
- In LA one cocktail is $ 30
wagies making $ 15 one hour
is it actually this over for nocoiners how do ppl survive here
- Buying real estate for income has got to be the biggest scam in the world. Don’t get why people do it
Illiquid and physically in a location, have to be a landlord and deal with gross people, need to pay property tax and maintain the place for what, 8% a year?
Just buy a damn REIT like Tendo says
- Ethereum has a very bad case of cosmos infection. Last cycle the ethereum discourse was human usable apps like uniswap and aave. This cycle all the ethereum devs and investors speak only PhD eg based sequencer, shared sequencer, intercontinental rollup... and one else gives a fk
- Rabby Wallet First-Round of Points Claim Ending Soon! ✅
🗓️ The first-round of claim ends on May 31st
If you still haven't claimed your Rabby points, make sure you do so now. Because the Rabby wallet is developed by Debank, this can directly benefit you in the Debank airdrop.
Here are steps to claim your points:
1. Download Rabby Wallet: rabby.io/rabby-points?c…
2. Import your Metamask seed phrase
3. Go to "Rabby Points" option
4. Enter a referral code to get extra bonus
5. And claim your points. That's it.
✅ You can use my referral code: GETIN
How to earn more points?
Make swaps totaling over $ 1000 on Rabby Swap and get 10 points. Top up your gas and earn another 10. Plus, get 50 points when someone you refer hits 100 points themselves.
- BREAKING: US Capitol Police start investigation after bag with cocaine residue found inside United States Capitol Police headquarters
- Brad Pitt was banned from China for 17 years after filming Seven Years in Tibet.
- 👀 Arkham analysts have identified the wallets of celebrities with more than 1 million Twitter followers who have invested in cryptocurrency :
1️⃣ Donald Trump owns the largest crypto portfolio, estimated at approximately $ 7 million .
2️⃣ Justin Bieber holds $ 450,000 worth of digital assets - 146 ETH and 12,136 APE, as well as several NFTs.
3️⃣ Brazilian football player Neymar keeps about $ 55,000 in crypto .
4️⃣ Actors Jimmy Fallon and Kevin Hart hold $ 112,000 and $ 39,800 in crypto, respectively.
- In 1938 a massive flood destroyed the road, forever stranding this concrete arc bridge in the mountains above Los Angeles
- Suicide per 100,000 people:
🇱🇸 Lesotho: 87.5
🇬🇾 Guyana: 40.9
🇰🇮 Kiribati: 30.6
🇿🇦 South Africa: 23.5
🇷🇺 Russia: 21.6
🇰🇷 South Korea: 21.2
🇱🇹 Lithuania: 20.2
🇰🇿 Kazakhstan: 18.1
🇺🇦 Ukraine: 17.7
🇺🇸 US: 14.5
🇸🇮 Slovenia: 14.0
🇧🇪 Belgium: 13.9
🇫🇮 Finland: 13.4
🇮🇳 India: 12.9
🇸🇪 Sweden: 12.4
🇯🇵 Japan: 12.2
🇪🇪 Estonia: 12.0
🇭🇺 Hungary: 11.8
🇳🇴 Norway: 11.8
🇦🇺 Australia: 11.3
🇮🇸 Iceland: 11.2
🇭🇷 Croatia: 11.0
🇦🇹 Austria: 10.4
🇨🇦 Canada: 10.3
🇳🇿 New Zealand: 10.3
🇳🇪 Niger: 10.1
🇵🇰 Pakistan: 9.8
🇫🇷 France: 9.7
🇨🇿 Czechia: 9.5
🇵🇱 Poland: 9.3
🇮🇪 Ireland: 8.9
🇩🇪 Germany: 8.3
🇦🇷 Argentina: 8.1
🇩🇰 Denmark: 7.6
🇳🇬 Nigeria: 6.9
🇬🇧 UK: 6.9
🇨🇳 China: 6.7
🇧🇷 Brazil: 6.4
🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia: 5.4
🇲🇽 Mexico: 5.3
🇪🇸 Spain: 5.3
🇦🇪 UAE: 5.2
🇮🇷 Iran: 5.1
🇮🇹 Italy: 4.3
🇧🇩 Bangladesh: 3.9
🇨🇴 Colombia: 3.7
🇪🇬 Egypt: 3.4
🇱🇧 Lebanon: 2.8
🇮🇩 Indonesia: 2.6
🇹🇷 Turkey: 2.3
🇸🇾 Syria: 2.1
Note: age-standardized, per 100,000 population
According to WHO, 2019
- Dave Portnoy has officially invested $ 500K in $AMC at an average of $ 5.20 and $ 500K into $GME Gamestop at $ 34.40.
- The race question follows Caitlin Clark to the WNBA: ‘Boils my blood’ trib.al/QcZu31l
- Interest payments as share of government revenue, 2024.
🇵🇰 Pakistan: 57%
🇧🇩 Bangladesh: 32%
🇮🇳 India: 28%
🇮🇩 Indonesia: 15%
(Fitch Ratings)
- 🇺🇸2024 will be the first #Bitcoin Presidential Election.
- #Bitcoin is at a crucial level here.
Not holding up at $ 60K and I think we'll have a final wash to $ 52-55K after which the upwards momentum continues.
- #Mothers are the backbone of every family, offering unwavering love and support. Their selfless dedication shapes our growth and achievements. #HEI extends our deepest respect and gratitude to all mothers. Wishing everyone a joyful #MothersDay.
- Netanyahu’s statements made me sick- “no nation came to our aid against the Nazi’s” he said. While 17.8 million Americans were deployed to fight in World War 2- leaving over 400k dead.
During that time , the ADL and Israeli interest groups were holding secret conferences in the U.S., calling us “dumb” and laughing at us as they sent our people to the slaughter for their interests.
FOIA requests reveal exactly what the ADL thinks of us, and they still to this day retain a huge and powerful stronghold over the United States and our politicians.
I just found out this is real and I’m sick to my stomach over it.
- 💔🇵🇸 ISRAEL just BOMBED a residential tower in the heart of Rafah.
- Everyone should know that this animal exists. It's a Viscacha.
The Viscacha is known for always looking sad, disappointed, and needing a nap. They are my new spirit animal.
- Good morning brokies 😊
- Just 32 days after launch, Xiaomi EV Factory has hit a major milestone - 10,000 units of Xiaomi SU7 produced. Follow me for a look inside and see how we made it happen.
- JUST IN: 🇪🇺 EU Securities Authority is exploring adding #Bitcoin and Crypto exposure to the €12T investment market.
EU is gearing up 🙌
- JUST IN: 🇨🇳 🇭🇰 CEO of Hong Kong #Bitcoin ETF issuer, Harvest, wants to put the ETF on Stock Connect so mainland Chinese investors can buy it.
Would be HUGE! 🚀
- Since nobody on earth can figure out what happened with tsuka, here’s what I learned
Tubba and his scam crew misled the team, his own employees and community with empty promises of riches, an L2 and a casino
None of this was ever going to happen and he used you as exit liquidity. If u can’t see this then ur retarded
Want someone to blame besides yourself? Go dm Tubba
- In crypto, social media isn't just about news. Share the journey, the wins and the fails. Authenticity builds trust.
- feels like a god candle is brewing
- ITALY: Soldiers will be deployed across the country to hunt down wild boars, with over a million of the animals roaming throughout Italy and contributing to the spread of swine fever.
- National Geographic Picture of The Year. Black images are shadows of zebras. Zoom in and you will see zebras.
📸: Beverly Joubert
- If you have evidence of #crypto scams from influencers on @lens/x you can DM me the details and I will investigate. Soon we will launch campaigns to deplatform these criminals one by one, and recover the money they stole from their followers.
- Every year for the past six years I have upgraded my lifestyle by adding a “based” element
2019: Weight Lifting
2020: #Bitcoin
2021: Jesus + SR
2022: Seed Oil Disrespect/Carnivore
2023: Fasting
2024: Sun Maxxing
What should I add to my repertoire in 2025?
- The only crash crypto investors are waiting for 📉
Do you agree?
- gm to all the dog lovers around the world 💜
- What's the first token you check in the morning?
I almost never check the price of $EGC & $LCR. We haven't even got started there, and the daily movements for me are irrelevant.
For me it's $BNB. It moves our specific market on a macro level, and it's also a token I hold large amounts of and find fairly predictable, so have been able to trade quite well over the years.
- Weekly update (Apr 28- May 5)
Hi folks, the dynamics of the armed resistance are constantly evolving, but there is noticeable progress week by week. Read the highlights below:
- 🇸🇾 Asma al-Assad, the First Lady of Syria, on Orthodox Easter.
- From the river to the sea Palestine will be free ✌️
- ❤️🇵🇸 BADASS Southern Lebanese grandma stands in front of her DESTROYED HOME with @lens/aliimortada
- It's said that #Bitcoin 's greatest fear is an #Ethereum ETF (ETP) approval. When I got into BTC in 2011, our biggest fear was that the government would ban it. The bitcoiners of today bear little resemblance to the bitcoiners we lost; Satoshi, Roger, Gavin, Trace.
Get a roadmap.
- 🚨 UPDATE 🚨
MORE THAN $ 7,800,000,000 WORTH OF BITCOIN SHORTS WILL GET LIQUIDATED IF $BTC HITS $ 68,600.
REMARKABLY, #BITCOIN ALWAYS TEND TO FOLLOW LIQUIDITY!