oscarking (@oscarking) • Hey
oscarking (@oscarking) • Hey
Publications
- Bank of mom and dad always works
- The Best-Reviewed Video Games of 2023 so far: https://t.co/BK9S75v09P
Resident Evil 4 https://t.co/8xLJ8v8LvD
- Gm fens,
welcome to the airdorp season，
whos the next？
- $ARB PRICE SCENARIOS 🦅🔵
Investor price* → Market Cap 85M - ARB $0.07
Pessimistic → Market Cap 360M - ARB $0.30
Moderate → Market Cap 780M - ARB $0.65
Optimistic → Market Cap 1.4B - ARB null.20
Ecstatic 🎉 → Market Cap 3.0B - ARB $2.50
@Arbitrum Thread 🧵 - Let's estimate 🧠
$ARB is launching in 6 days
Snapshot Date: Feb 6th 2023
Many active DeFi got this airdrop (12% of the total supply)
How much could $ARB be worth a few days after launch?
1/18
Arbitrum One is the biggest Ethereum Layer2 blockchain in the space, by TVL and market share
• Market share: 55%
• TVL: $3.7B
2/18
Today we will roughly try to estimate $ARB price valuation a few days after launch - after the dust settles. By using:
• Total & initial circulating supply
• Market Benchmarks
• Percentage airdropped
3/18
TOKENOMICS
• Team & Advisors: 26.94%
• Investors: 17.53%
• Treasury: 42.78%
• Airdrop to users: 11.62%
• Airdrop to Arbitrum DAOs: 1.13%
4/18
TOKEN SUPPLY
• Total supply: 10B tokens (10,000,000,000)
• Circulating supply on 1st day: roughly 1.2B (1,200,000,000)
~12% of total supply
User airdrop is immediately unlocked. It's safe to assume that Airdrop to Arbitrum DAOs will not enter the market right away
5/18
AIRDROP CRITERIA
• Conducting transactions during 2-9 distinct months
• Transaction frequency & interaction (4-100)
• Arbitrum Nova activity: 3-10 transactions
• Bridging to Arbitrum & Arbitrum Nova
• Transaction value: $10k-$250k
• Providing liquidity: $10k-$250k
6/18
🔗 Check your eligibility here: arbitrum.foundation
🚨 Careful with scam links, always get your link from @Arbitrum twitter
Now, let's try to make scenarios for $ARB's price 👇
7/18
FDV AND MARKET CAP MEANING
• Fully Diluted Valuation (FDV) = total supply * token price
• Market cap = circulating supply * token price
With $ARB numbers:
FDV = 10B * token price
Market cap = 1.2B * token price
Token price = ❓
8/18
SPECULATING INVESTOR'S PRICE
According to Crunchbase, Offchain Labs raised 120M.
Investors are getting ~17% of the token supply, which is around 1.7B tokens.
If they bought 1.7B tokens for $120M, then that's around $0.07 per ARB. Pure speculation 👀
9/18
The best benchmarks for $ARB are Optimism and Polygon, but we can also work with other chains. Let's compare:
• Polygon $MATIC
• Optimism $OP
• Fantom $FTM
• Solana $SOL
10/18
Optimism $OP - the 2nd biggest Ethereum L2
• TVL: $950 million (DefiLlama)
• FDV: $10.8 billion
• Market cap: $800 million
If $ARB had this FDV, its price would be ~null.08
11/18
Polygon $MATIC
• TVL: null.05 billion
• FDV: $11.8 billion
• Market cap: $10.7 billion
If $ARB had this FDV, its price would be ~null.18
12/18
Fantom $FTM
• TVL: $445 million
• FDV: null.4 billion
• Market cap: null.2 billion
If $ARB had this FDV, its price would be ~$0.14
13/18
Solana $SOL
• TVL: $245 million
• Market cap: $7.7 billion
• FDV: $10.9 billion
If $ARB had this FDV, its price would be ~null.09
14/18
Summarizing:
• $ARB with the FDV of $OP: null.08
• $ARB with the FDV of $MATIC: null.18
• $ARB with the FDV of $FTM: $0.14
• $ARB with the FDV of $SOL: null.09
15/18
If the market prices ARB at the same level as OP and MATIC (~10B FDV) then token price could be ~null.00
In contrast, for ARB price to be $3.00, its FDV needs to be 3 times the size of OP's.
Yes, Arbitrum has two times Optimism's TVL, but I don't know if that is enough.
16/18
PRICE SCENARIOS
Pessimistic → Market Cap 360M - ARB $0.30
Moderate → Market Cap 780M - ARB $0.65
Optimistic → Market Cap 1.4B - ARB null.20
Ecstatic 🎉 → Market Cap 3.0B - ARB $2.50
17/18
The first hours of trading will probably be a mess, so expect volatility.
These numbers are just a price iteration and comparison to what's already out there. I don't expect them to make sense the first day of trading.
18/18
LIQUIDITY
Remember Optimism partnered with Wintermute for liquidity on $OP launch; we should wait to see how Arbitrum does it. I think they will surely take care of initial liquidity.
At which price would you sell $ARB?
⚡️ Join me on Telegram for lightning-fast alpha notifications: https://t.me/OlimpioAlpha
👥 Also, lots of DeFi and Airdrop talk is going on inside Earndrop's server, join here: https://earndrop.io/discord
- Gm ☕
- Guild.xyz @ EthDenver
It's been extraordinary to meet so many of you in person. Grateful to have had the opportunity to speak at so many amazing events and share what we know about communities and the future of the internet.
- 🔥Arb热门链游Metaline 20WL
Arb空投麻了，生态项目可能还有肉。大航海游戏Metaline已融资未发币，获Arb官方推荐，首期NFT利润可观，二期盲盒发售在即，20个WL，24H开奖：
①关注推特： https://twitter.com/Metaline001
②关注 @imfidao.lens @cryptofuyu.lens
③转发+收集+评论区留言（含ARB地址，中奖的直接被拿走）
PS：留言越走心，中奖概率越大
- When I say special that's what I mean 💎
Which one do you love 🤔
#lenstyle
- @web3academy.lens I got my pass!!! Let’s roll 🥁
- It is all part of the process.
- Don’t stop until you are proud.
- Let your dreams be your wings.
- Be the reason someone smiles.
- What’s come is better than what went.
- Once in a while, someone amazing comes along… and that amazing is ME!!
- Work on being in love with the person in the mirror who has been through so much but is still standing.
- Do no harm, take no shit.
- Be proud of your progress.
- Little by little, day by day, what is meant for you will find its way.
- I swear I have all my shit together, I just forgot where I put it.
- Let me wander with the ones who are tangled in stars and tethered to promise.
- Let me wander with the ones who are tangled in stars and tethered to promise.
- Perfection is found in accepting your imperfections.
- More characters onboarding Lens shop, collect yours now 👀 💃
If you have the whole collection, what will it bring to you? Good fortune?
Let's see. 🌿
- More characters onboarding Lens shop, collect yours now 👀 💃
If you have the whole collection, what will it bring to you? Good fortune?
Let's see. 🌿
- 🎄🎄🎄
Merry Christmas, everyone!
I hope you all have a wonderful holiday filled with love❤️, joy🎿, and all your favorite things🍪🍎🧑🤝🧑. From our cozy little cabin in the woods to your home, we send our warmest wishes for a happy and healthy holiday season.
As the snow gently falls outside and the fire crackles in the hearth, I can't help but feel grateful for all the amazing people👱, plants🌿 and animals🐶🐱 in my life. Thank you for being a part of it, and for making this such a special time of year.
🧑🎄🧑🎄🧑🎄
May your Christmas be filled with magic, wonder, and all the things that bring you joy.
Love, Aoi~💚
🌿🌿🌿
**Follow & Collect this post to have this special gift from me.**
- 💚 🌱🌱
Konnichiwa (こんにちは), My name is Aoi(青い), nice to meet all the Lens fans.
I live in the deep forest and only come out to soak the sunlight🌞 with my magical umbrella～
I am the protector of all plants🍃, they are my children and I ❤️ them deeply.
Hope I can build a greener♻️ future with everyone in the Lens community.
Follow me to get updates on my journey.
**Mirror & Collect this post to collect me, I will see you very soon.**💚 🌱🌱
- Built on @memester-xyz.lens
- Built on @memester-xyz.lens
- Built on @memester-xyz.lens
- Built on @memester-xyz.lens
- Built on @02178.lens
- Built on @memester-xyz.lens
- dont sell crypto assets!
- Built on @memester-xyz.lens
- Built on @memester-xyz.lens
- Built on @memester-xyz.lens
- When you finally heal, you'll realize they had nothing to offer you from day one. Just lies and bullshit. It was YOU who had everything they wanted.
- It doesn't matter how much you know if you never put that knowledge to work.
- One kind word can easily warm 3 winter months.
- Built on @memester-xyz.lens
- Built on @memester-xyz.lens
- Built on @memester-xyz.lens
- Built on @memester-xyz.lens
- My foggi morning today in heart of Baku 🌇
Couldn't resist sharing this beauty🔸
#nature
- **Twitter vs. Lenster Engagement Numbers**
I created a similar post of an orchestral rehearsal video yesterday on both platforms.
On Twitter I included an outside link and on my Lenster post I was able to give a more in-depth explanation of the music.
Guess which platform had better engagement? There's really no comparison!!
Twitter followers - 3,415
Lens followers - 4,061
Twitter comments - 1
Lenster comments - 59
Twitter retweets - 8
Lenster mirrors - 105!
Twitter likes - 17
Lenster likes - 219 and 3 collects ✨
- I find you in sad songs, the sound of rain, sunsets, Sundays, smiles, and all the small things.
- The difficulty with today’s relationships is that everyone has been burned by an ex and is scared to put their guard down again.
- I’ll give you the whole world while mine is falling apart.