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$ARB PRICE SCENARIOS 🦅🔵 Investor price* → Market Cap 85M - ARB $0.07 Pessimistic → Market Cap 360M - ARB $0.30 Moderate → Market Cap 780M - ARB $0.65 Optimistic → Market Cap 1.4B - ARB null.20 Ecstatic 🎉 → Market Cap 3.0B - ARB $2.50 @Arbitrum Thread 🧵 - Let's estimate 🧠 $ARB is launching in 6 days Snapshot Date: Feb 6th 2023 Many active DeFi got this airdrop (12% of the total supply) How much could $ARB be worth a few days after launch? 1/18 Arbitrum One is the biggest Ethereum Layer2 blockchain in the space, by TVL and market share • Market share: 55% • TVL: $3.7B 2/18 Today we will roughly try to estimate $ARB price valuation a few days after launch - after the dust settles. By using: • Total & initial circulating supply • Market Benchmarks • Percentage airdropped 3/18 TOKENOMICS • Team & Advisors: 26.94% • Investors: 17.53% • Treasury: 42.78% • Airdrop to users: 11.62% • Airdrop to Arbitrum DAOs: 1.13% 4/18 TOKEN SUPPLY • Total supply: 10B tokens (10,000,000,000) • Circulating supply on 1st day: roughly 1.2B ARB (1,200,000,000) ~12% of total supply User airdrop is immediately unlocked. It's safe to assume that Airdrop to Arbitrum DAOs will not enter the market right away 5/18 AIRDROP CRITERIA • Conducting transactions during 2-9 distinct months • Transaction frequency & interaction (4-100) • Arbitrum Nova activity: 3-10 transactions • Bridging to Arbitrum & Arbitrum Nova • Transaction value: $10k-$250k • Providing liquidity: $10k-$250k 6/18 🔗 Check your eligibility here: arbitrum.foundation 🚨 Careful with scam links, always get your link from @Arbitrum twitter Now, let's try to make scenarios for $ARB's price 👇 7/18 FDV AND MARKET CAP MEANING • Fully Diluted Valuation (FDV) = total supply * token price • Market cap = circulating supply * token price With $ARB numbers: FDV = 10B * token price Market cap = 1.2B * token price Token price = ❓ 8/18 SPECULATING INVESTOR'S PRICE According to Crunchbase, Offchain Labs raised 120M. Investors are getting ~17% of the token supply, which is around 1.7B tokens. If they bought 1.7B tokens for $120M, then that's around $0.07 per ARB. Pure speculation 👀 9/18 The best benchmarks for $ARB are Optimism and Polygon, but we can also work with other chains. Let's compare: • Polygon $MATIC • Optimism $OP • Fantom $FTM • Solana $SOL 10/18 Optimism $OP - the 2nd biggest Ethereum L2 • TVL: $950 million (DefiLlama) • FDV: $10.8 billion • Market cap: $800 million If $ARB had this FDV, its price would be ~null.08 11/18 Polygon $MATIC • TVL: null.05 billion • FDV: $11.8 billion • Market cap: $10.7 billion If $ARB had this FDV, its price would be ~null.18 12/18 Fantom $FTM • TVL: $445 million • FDV: null.4 billion • Market cap: null.2 billion If $ARB had this FDV, its price would be ~$0.14 13/18 Solana $SOL • TVL: $245 million • Market cap: $7.7 billion • FDV: $10.9 billion If $ARB had this FDV, its price would be ~null.09 14/18 Summarizing: • $ARB with the FDV of $OP: null.08 • $ARB with the FDV of $MATIC: null.18 • $ARB with the FDV of $FTM: $0.14 • $ARB with the FDV of $SOL: null.09 15/18 If the market prices ARB at the same level as OP and MATIC (~10B FDV) then token price could be ~null.00 In contrast, for ARB price to be $3.00, its FDV needs to be 3 times the size of OP's. Yes, Arbitrum has two times Optimism's TVL, but I don't know if that is enough. 16/18 PRICE SCENARIOS Pessimistic → Market Cap 360M - ARB $0.30 Moderate → Market Cap 780M - ARB $0.65 Optimistic → Market Cap 1.4B - ARB null.20 Ecstatic 🎉 → Market Cap 3.0B - ARB $2.50 17/18 The first hours of trading will probably be a mess, so expect volatility. These numbers are just a price iteration and comparison to what's already out there. I don't expect them to make sense the first day of trading. 18/18 LIQUIDITY Remember Optimism partnered with Wintermute for liquidity on $OP launch; we should wait to see how Arbitrum does it. I think they will surely take care of initial liquidity. At which price would you sell $ARB? ⚡️ Join me on Telegram for lightning-fast alpha notifications: https://t.me/OlimpioAlpha 👥 Also, lots of DeFi and Airdrop talk is going on inside Earndrop's server, join here: https://earndrop.io/discord