nino (@nino_trade) • Hey
trading crypto Spot Mar 2018–
Derivative Nov 2019–
CryptoQuant Verified Author Mar 2022–
Publications
- 72MA 72EMA 72WMA Funding Rate:
Since the beginning of 2024, it has surpassed the previous all-time high levels. It has since dropped rapidly and briefly dipped into negative territory. I believe it might start rising again after this adjustment.
chart SIGNAL description:
I've color-coded the 72MA as black, 72EMA as blue, and 72WMA as yellow to track changes in the Funding Rate (FR) and identify potential overbought or oversold conditions. I use these three FR moving averages to predict market trends.
https://cryptoquant.com/insights/quicktake/6630ff301baced598766e991-Tracking-Market-Shifts-with-Color-Coded-Moving-Averages
- I am currently awaiting an increase in Bitfinex's reserves. During the previous bubble market, when Bitfinex’s reserves were increasing and Binance’s funding rate turned negative, it often indicated that prices were nearing the bottom. While this observation is based on past occurrences, if the user base size of Bitfinex and Binance remains unchanged in this current bubble, I might witness this situation again.
Given the current circumstances where Binance's funding rate has turned negative, I am closely monitoring the developments at Bitfinex.
https://cryptoquant.com/insights/quicktake/662d1f03df798149da5ac0c5-Reflecting-on-Past-Bubbles-Bitfinex-Reserves-and-Their-Market-Implications
- Since breaking through the $ 50,000 mark in late February (indicated by the circle on the price chart), it is the first time in a long period that the funding rate has turned negative. There is variability among different exchanges (marked by the square area), which began in early April and continues to this day. This shift is speculated to be due to a demand for hedging with physical Bitcoin in anticipation of the halving. Moreover, this hedging demand is likely to be settled through counter-trades, which I believe will help to further drive up the prices in the future.
https://cryptoquant.com/insights/quicktake/662b885ddf798149da57f099-The-Impact-of-Negative-Funding-Rates-on-Bitcoin-as-Halving-Nears
- i’m claiming Anima!
- Fund Market Premium Turns Positive
Finally, the Fund Market Premium has turned positive.
Funds are purchasing BTC at a premium, indicating that buyers are transacting at prices higher than the current market price of Bitcoin.
For a look back, see our previous Quicktake posted on October 31, 2023. This is something we have been eagerly anticipating since that time.
https://cryptoquant.com/insights/quicktake/65c7836f7f4ffd2b53a4abb5-Fund-Market-Premium-Turns-Positive
- Hourly Insights: Tracking Funding Rates and Liquidations
https://cryptoquant.com/insights/quicktake/65b62ad32534e7228990a398-Hourly-Insights-Tracking-Funding-Rates-and-Liquidations
- Analyzing Long-Term Funding Rates Across Crypto Exchanges
I've been looking at the Funding Rate for each exchange over a long period. In short, rates above 0.01 indicate overbuying, while rates below suggest overselling. This also seems to reflect the unique characteristics of traders on each exchange.
Notably, during past bubble markets, Binance showed a clear tendency to swing to extremes. However, recent news has made me question whether this trend will continue (this is just my personal view). Currently, I'm focusing on OKX, as it ranks second in trading volume. Recently, its Funding Rate has been trending upwards, making it an interesting case to watch. If this rise continues, we might see a significant drop as a shakeout. Conversely, if it moderately decreases, there's a potential for continued price increase.
As the new year approaches and with increasing volatility, it's important to stay vigilant.
https://cryptoquant.com/insights/quicktake/658f725a25e6c44e48a371e4-Analyzing-Long-Term-Funding-Rates-Across-Crypto-Exchanges
- Navigating the Crypto Futures Landscape: Analyzing Recent Funding Rate Trends and Predicting Short-Term Movements
The recent Funding Rate has approached the level of the previous high, indicating a potential need for caution regarding market volatility.
Although the long-term bullish outlook remains unchanged, there might be signs of overheating in the futures market. Previously, after the Funding Rate exceeded 0.04 and peaked, the market experienced a decline for about four days. This downturn, however, led to a good buying opportunity as prices eventually recovered.
If we assume the peak occurred on the 22nd this time, there might be a decline until the 26th. Afterwards, there's a possibility that prices will rebound. It's important to note that this is based on the price trends observed last time, and the outcome might vary in the current scenario.
https://cryptoquant.com/insights/quicktake/6586fa2d511a632d598a13a6-Navigating-the-Crypto-Futures-Landscape-Analyzing-Recent-Funding-Rate-Trends-and
- Disney Pinnacle
movie:
Mystery Capsule reveals one digital pin!
🪄
- Disney Pinnacle
https://disneypinnacle.com/pinbooks/pinbook-a420409c-4495-414d-b2e7-66ce97a50e48
https://disneypinnacle.com/pinbooks/pinbook-a420409c-4495-414d-b2e7-66ce97a50e48
- Chase and collect digital pins featuring characters you love, from Disney, Pixar and STAR WARS™
- The end of 2023 looks set to see both BTC and ETH maintaining their highest Open Interest (OI) in derivatives as they move into the new year. The chart shows the trend of OI since 2022, along with price and estimated leverage ratio.
In 2023, after an increase in OI during the summer, it was dissolved with the fall in prices. However, this time, the OI has increased and is updating its year-to-date high.
Heading into Q1 of next year, there is keen interest in how this accumulated OI will be resolved.
https://cryptoquant.com/insights/quicktake/657862b7b928df403fd73610-Transitioning-into-the-New-Year-A-Look-at-BTC-and-ETH-Open-Interest-in-Late-2023
- There are signs that the activity in NFTs and DeFi might be picking up again.
The standard deviation (SD) of withdrawal transactions from exchanges has been rising, suggesting a potential increase in SD which has been quiet since May this year.
Like during past bubble periods, if there's a surge in demand for DeFi and NFTs, it would necessitate an increased supply of ETH. This could lead to higher volatility in its price.
https://cryptoquant.com/insights/quicktake/656874706f7f7c60bf9819d3-Rising-Transaction-Volatility-Potential-Impacts-on-ETH-Demand
- Recent trends in the cryptocurrency market suggest a potential bullish phase, as observed through the activities of 'whales' – major BTC holders. A key pattern has emerged: whales are transferring Bitcoin to derivative exchanges specifically when prices hit a low. This movement often indicates a long position punt, suggesting a confidence in market recovery.
For traders, these whale activities offer critical market insights. While not definitive, they provide clues about possible market shifts and opportunities for strategic trading decisions. As such, monitoring whale movements is essential for anticipating the next big market trend.
https://cryptoquant.com/insights/quicktake/6565d264bd919d7cba9482e4-Whale-Activities-Signal-Potential-Bull-Market
- After a continuous negative MPI since September this year, the MPI has turned positive (2.39) with the recent rise to 35,000.
However, it has returned to negative in the past two days (-0.18, -0.90). Due to the use of a 365-day moving average, short-term changes are less likely to be reflected, but it is useful for gauging how long this bullish trend will continue and when it may reverse.
If a continuous positive or negative MPI persists for about two weeks, it would be wise to prepare for price fluctuations.
https://cryptoquant.com/insights/quicktake/653ffacb3943ad1bb1c3a82c-Two-Week-MPI-Trends-and-Their-Impact-on-Market-Prices
- The Fund Volume appears to be on the rise.
Currently, the Fund Market Premium is negative, indicating a discount.
However, this Premium is showing a decreasing trend in 2023.
I anticipate the Fund Volume to continue increasing and for the Fund Market Premium to surpass 0, though this may take some time.
https://cryptoquant.com/insights/quicktake/653fd71046fce34d1d82eeca-A-Shift-in-Fund-Dynamics-Analyzing-Volume-and-Premium-Trends
- Success of the Funding Rate 72h MA Signal
Comparing 72h Funding Rate with 72MA, 72EMA, and 72WMA, the signal seems to be successful.
This suggests that, at the inception of the recent uptrend, the futures market was leaning towards selling or that spot purchases drove the Funding Rate into the negative.
https://cryptoquant.com/insights/quicktake/653e84503943ad1bb1c26a07-Success-of-the-Funding-Rate-72h-MA-Signal
- Stagnating ETH Outflow Tx Count: Is Everyone Gone?
https://cryptoquant.com/insights/quicktake/65181a57426b192908f3f77b-Stagnating-ETH-Outflow-Tx-Count-Is-Everyone-Gone
- Declining Market Participation? Insights from the 72-Hour Funding Rate Moving Average
https://cryptoquant.com/insights/quicktake/65181679426b192908f3f774-Declining-Market-Participation-Insights-from-the-72-Hour-Funding-Rate-Moving-Ave
- Analysis of Upcoming Crypto Trends: Are We at a Turning Point?
https://cryptoquant.com/insights/quicktake/6517e7eb3710027f291d4848-Analysis-of-Upcoming-Crypto-Trends-Are-We-at-a-Turning-Point
- What’s that behind Gary’s shoulder? 🛡️
- Pokémon at the Van Gogh × Pikachu card 🤩
https://twitter.com/syrup_rin/status/1707248481709285389?t=fiwkVLmYkZ3KbEPXPoT7sw&s=19
https://twitter.com/syrup_rin/status/1707248481709285389
- I have documented the method I am using for the 72-hour Funding Rate indicator. Please feel free to take a look when you have a moment
https://cryptoquant.com/insights/quicktake/64f0a6193192d43a7eca44d2-Comparing-72h-Funding-Rate-with-72MA-72EMA-and-72WMA
- DO IT!
AC6
https://www.armoredcore.net/index.html
- Here's an invitation code for Arkham. Feel free to use it if you're interested. It seems it might become unusable once the limit is reached
https://platform.arkhamintelligence.com/waitlist?referrer=aGlyb25vdzM2NUBnbWFpbC5jb20
[Arkham](https://platform.arkhamintelligence.com/waitlist?referrer=aGlyb25vdzM2NUBnbWFpbC5jb20)
- Strong drop on Saturday.
- PROOF OF POST
On Phaver, I post my daily analysis in crypto and will continue to do so!
Specifically, I share articles I've written as a verified author on CryptoQuant, as well as updates and data related to my own trading.
Below are some of my activities in other places.
CryptoQuant: from 2022 Mar
https://cryptoquant.com/profile/u/nino
Website: from 2022 Dec
https://nino.blue/
Twitter: from 2020 Jan
https://twitter.com/nino_trade
[CryptoQuant | nino](https://cryptoquant.com/profile/u/nino)
BTC, ETH, Major ALT | On-chain analysis, Orderflow, Market Profile | Japan | https://nino.blue/ | https://phaver.app.link/nino_trade
- A very tough day.
https://cryptoquant.com/prochart/3jlwCDmoyF0MMWM
- Wen Lens drop??? 🪂
**When Lens Airdrop??? 🌿**
Q3/Q4 or next year?
- Ever wondered about the rhythm of the market and its effects on crypto prices?
My new article delves into this fascinating topic.
Give it a read and you might discover something new!
[CryptoQuant | Observing Market Rhythms: A Note on Minor O...](https://cryptoquant.com/insights/quicktake/6477386f52b1436aa9ee5d57-Observing-Market-Rhythms-A-Note-on-Minor-Output-and-Potential-Price-Drops)
This indicates the total of minor output. In this metric, the average amount of coins per transaction is increasing, potentially triggering a price drop when...
- In our latest article, "A Three-Month Review: BTC Reserves, Open Interest, and Holder Activity", we take a close look at recent changes in the Bitcoin market. Feel free to have a look:
[CryptoQuant | A Three-Month Review: BTC Reserves, Open In...](https://cryptoquant.com/insights/quicktake/6474f0245cd12663d79cee31-A-Three-Month-Review-BTC-Reserves-Open-Interest-and-Holder-Activity)
Reflecting on the past three months: February was characterized by a larger Spot BTC Reserve than we currently have, along with the start of Ordinals. In Ma...
- Possible peak not seen since mid-Feb. Wrote an article about it. Challenging situation, driven by derivatives.
#ad
On the Brink of a Bullish Market? A Cautionary Analysis of Recent Derivative Trends
[CryptoQuant | On the Brink of a Bullish Market? A Caution...](https://cryptoquant.com/insights/quicktake/647388609c46667445529197-On-the-Brink-of-a-Bullish-Market-A-Cautionary-Analysis-of-Recent-Derivative-Tren)
The Taker Buy/Sell Ratio is approaching levels not seen since its peaks in early to mid-January and mid-February (Image 1). This might suggest a bullish sent...
- Formation of the Simpson chart... I wonder how many times it's been now...
- Now, the Whale Ratio has exceeded 0.9. Let's be cautious! I'd love for you to take a look at past articles.
https://cryptoquant.com/insights/quicktake/63d1675aa01cee57d52ca5ba-Rising-Exchange-Whale-Ratio
- why?
- Bigger batch coming up next week 💚
[Phaver (🦄,🌿) on Twitter](https://twitter.com/phaverapp/status/1626058379859750913)
“3) First SBT Holders have been whitelisted and can already claim their Lens handles NOW! 🚨
Check is your wallet now eligible:
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Mint your free Lens handle🌿
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We will continue to ship Lens WLs to more SBT holders so stay tuned!🚀”
- why???
[Twitter To Charge for SMS Two-Factor Authentication](https://www.cnet.com/tech/services-and-software/twitter-to-charge-for-sms-two-factor-authentication/)
Twitter users who rely on this method will have until March 20 to change how they secure their account.
- Hello #Yasai
- I analyzed strong trends from the beginning of the year using CryptoQuant data.
If you're interested, please continue reading and feel free to use stake.
For the first time since the start of the year, the 1d-1w cohort dipped below the realized prices at the end of January, but it has already bounced back and is now above them, indicating strong sentiment.
[CryptoQuant | Holding Trends of 1d-1w Cohort Indicator](https://cryptoquant.com/quicktake/63dc06adf4b6234f7e959f67-Holding-Trends-of-1d-1w-Cohort-Indicator)
Since the start of the year, the 1d-1w cohort has remained steady. This indicator gives a comprehensive view of each cohort's holding patterns by comparing d...
- I've written an analytical article that is bullish in the short-term.
Please take a look if you're interested and consider staking if you like it.
I believe the current trend of stablecoin deposits in the Spot market is showing signs of FOMO. I will continue to monitor this indicator closely, and if it continues to peak, it has the potential to create a stronger trend in the future.
[CryptoQuant | Deposit and Withdrawal Trends on Exchanges](https://cryptoquant.com/quicktake/63d4ca8e5ad02974254b607d-Deposit-and-Withdrawal-Trends-on-Exchanges)
I analyzed the number of recent deposits and withdrawals on major exchanges. In the recent uptrend at the end of last year, we can see that it began with an ...
- OK!
Is this dYdX year?
> Postponing the unlocks for investors will reduce this amount by 83 million tokens ($156 million), shifting a significant part of the impact to the end of the year.
[DYdX pushes back $156 million of token unlocks for investors to December from February](https://www.theblock.co/post/205440/dydx-pushes-back-token-unlocks-for-investors-to-december-from-february)
The decentralized exchange has delayed the token unlocks for investors to the end of this year instead of February.
- I have also conducted a short-term analysis utilizing CryptoQuant's On-chain data.
If it is of interest to you, I would be happy for you to take a look.
If this trend continues for several days, mass-dumping will be a concern.
It is also advisable to reduce any over-leveraged positions at this juncture.
[CryptoQuant | Rising Exchange Whale Ratio](https://cryptoquant.com/quicktake/63d1675aa01cee57d52ca5ba-Rising-Exchange-Whale-Ratio)
The Exchange Whale Ratio (72h MA) has exceeded 85%. If this trend continues for several days, mass-dumping will be a concern. It is also advisable to reduce...
- I will share my analysis of CryptoQuant's Onchain data. Please review it if you're interested.
Currently, I believe that the Derivative Exchange Inflow CDD has reached its peak and I have set an alert to monitor if the MPI reaches its historical high (between 6.48 and 17.74).
I am curious to see if, as past trends suggest, the price will reach a new high ten days after the MPI peak.
[CryptoQuant | Tracking Peak Patterns in Derivative Exchan...](https://cryptoquant.com/quicktake/63cb9be5d75e2b7d9934b7e3-Tracking-Peak-Patterns-in-Derivative-Exchange-Inflow-CDD-and-MPI)
I have been monitoring the Day-based Derivative Exchange CDD and the Miners' Position Index (MPI) for both Spot and Derivative exchanges. On two previous occ...
- Update your Phaver app now frens⚡️👀
Let us know what you think of the new update and comment what would you like to see next! 💜
[Phaver (🦄,🌿) on Twitter](https://twitter.com/phaverapp/status/1615266458023469062)
“We just released a MAJOR update frens!🚨👀
- Significant performance updates!⚡
- More simplified UI ✨
- Videos and GIFs from Lens 📹
- Lens likes ✅
- Block/mute users 🔕
- Sign to Lens API from: https://t.co/FaO0vK0veo 🔗
...and more!
Update your Phaver app now, frens! 📲”
- Volatility is on the rise once more.
Attached is a chart displaying BTC & ETH liquidations(USD) from CryptoQuant.
Feel free to take a look.
https://cryptoquant.com/prochart/3jlwCDmoyF0MMWM
- There are concerns regarding volatility, however, it is important to check the CME holiday calendar.
https://www.cmegroup.com/tools-information/holiday-calendar.html
- I anticipate that Monday will bring additional fluctuations as it coincides with the adjustment of the difficulty level for Bitcoin.
We will have to wait and see what transpires.
[Difficulty - BTC.com](https://btc.com/stats/diff)
- 🦊 #MetaMask Staking beta now live with Lido and Rocket Pool
https://www.theblock.co/post/201767/metamask-staking-beta-now-live-with-lido-and-rocket-pool-consensys-says?utm_source=telegram1&utm_medium=social
[MetaMask Staking beta now live with Lido and Rocket Pool, ConsenSys says](https://www.theblock.co/post/201767/metamask-staking-beta-now-live-with-lido-and-rocket-pool-consensys-says)
The service lets users connect to Lido and Rocket Pool and stake ETH to receive liquid staking tokens directly from the staking providers.
- BTC's 2017 ATH is on target!
Maybe people are thinking... Then this could be bad...?
I wonder what will happen...?
- I have the impression that the market is quiet, as if yesterday's volatility was a lie. What will happen...?