miguel (@mrubio) • Hey
writing a lot at Carbono
Publications
- The bull moves at different speeds, depending on the terrain.
In the latest issue of our newsletter we dive into the news that illustrate the status of the old & the new value propositions, bringing use cases to all that infra crypto is building.
Trading, traditional finance, decentralized physical infrastructure, global identity, NFTs, and Web 2.
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https://carbono.substack.com/p/99-the-case-of-use-cases
- **RUNES, AS BIG FOR BITCOIN AS THE ETFs**
Hear me out. Runes are going to be the biggest thing happening on crypto in 2024. Paired with ETFs.
Runes is the protocol for fungible tokens on Bitcoin, invented by Casey Rodarmor, the creator of the Ordinals theory. Runes are a more efficient way of minting tokens on Bitcoin. They've come to eat up BRC-20 and its cousins, which were clumsy and inefficient experiments in bringing ERC-20s to Bitcoin. Runes is here to grab their throne. The throne of memecoins on Bitcoin and perhaps the throne of airdroppable tokens, DeFi tokens... Good stuff.
The protocol is being launched to coincide with the halving, as if we didn't have enough with tomorrow. Starting tomorrow, tokens can be deployed (which in Runes language is called etch, and is equivalent to deploying the contract of an ERC-20) and minted.
So far, the way to position oneself to get Runes was to participate in one of the NFT collections that promised token airdrops. The most popular ones have been Runestones, RSIC, and later Pups. There are many more if you want to try your luck. They look indistinguishable to me.
I don't understand what these collections will do, though. Tomorrow, when it is finally possible to deploy Runes, we will all be equal in the eyes of the blockchain. These collections will compete with any degen willing to spend zillions on fees (because of BTC fees are about to skyrocket) to be the first. Are the Runestones teams and company ready to give what it takes to etch tomorrow? I don't know. They don't really need to rush, but not being early is a bummer.
Being the first will be important. And if not the first, then among the first. Someone will become the $ORDI of Runes and rule over the rest.
It's impossible to predict what the right play is. Tomorrow's winners will be the fearless, fast, and wealthy, capable of shooting a thousand times and missing nine hundred and ninety-nine. One hit will be enough to make it big.
Expect noise. Tomorrow looks like it will be insane.
- Sounds like we're once again on the infra side of the application-infrastructure cycle before we can expect true cases and adoption
I have been listening to some podcasts while walking the dog these days, and I came across the same idea from different sources: transaction speed will be paramount in the following stages of crypto. One of the people who mentioned it was Raoul Pal on Bankless, who said that the only thing stopping TradFi from entering crypto at full speed is low throughput. Every major bank is already playing with crypto, and the ecosystem has been blessed by Larry Fink. Now it just needs to be fast enough to be taken seriously. He thinks Solana, Aptos/Sui, and the Cosmos ecosystem are the closest to delivering this.
The other mention came from the Blockworks' 0xResearch podcast crew, when they were commenting how io.net (the latest sensation in DePin) is moving from Solana to Aptos after apparently having a disappointing experience with Solana.
- Bitcoin's price is the talk. However, there are many other strong trends at the moment. And with the halving about to happen, we just cannot NOT speak about it. What will happen in ten days? Arthur Hayes is not too excited about it.
But there are many other strong trends gaining momentum in crypto. Some are still within Bitcoin, like the arrival of Runes, a new token protocol. Some involve institutional investors, like VCs, or traditional asset tokenization. And there are crypto-native projects like Ethena making waves. Read all about it in our last issue of Carbono Insights.
https://carbono.substack.com/p/98-last-issue-before-the-halving
- Bitcoin is doing its thing again where it rises dramatically in value, so you better get ready for the catch up conversations with friends and relatives who will start to wonder again what's going on in crpyto.
Now, when you explain what crypto is up to, you don’t have to stop at speculation or DeFi, because some new use cases have reached a new level of maturity: social media, real-world assets, gaming..
Get ready for these conversations with us.
https://carbono.substack.com/p/95-getting-ready-for-crypto-catch
- I don't think things are working ok here. Couldn't change profile pic, and posts are not posting...
- In the latest issue of Carbono Insights we explain staking in 6 levels of difficulty: from the ABCs for newcomers (what's staking), to the LRTs for opportunity seekers wondering about this latest degen craze.
https://carbono.substack.com/p/94-the-state-of-staking-explained
- This newsletter is not the first recap you’ll find on the spot bitcoin ETFs. If anything, it might be the last since experts agreed that the window for the approval closes tomorrow.
#92 The last thing to read about spot bitcoin ETFs before the approval of spot bitcoin ETF
https://carbono.substack.com/p/92-the-last-thing-to-read-about-spot
- If you thought you had crypto figured out, think twice because things have changed a lot, very quickly, once more.
Your strategies and mental models developed during the bear market no longer apply. And the opportunities available in this bull are unlike anything you knew in 2021.
If you want to keep up with crypto, we humbly believe our newsletter is the best way to stay tuned :P
https://carbono.substack.com/p/91-naked-swimmers
- The excitement around the expected ETF approval (anticipated in January 2024) is still pulling the crypto scene like a locomotive. But, beyond the optimistic talk about the future, we might as well take a moment to appreciate the things we're leaving behind.
CZ stepping down a few weeks after SBF is found guilty of all charges, and the same week Do Kwon's extradition is approved, feels like we're closing a chapter.
https://carbono.substack.com/p/89-turning-the-page
- The financial world is abuzz with excitement as JPMorgan, a heavyweight in TradFi, embraces the purebred crypto protocols of Avalanche, Axelar, and Layer Zero. In this edition, we witness the imminent union of the Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) with the crypto market, a marriage that seems just a couple of months away. The love affair continues with Solana’s unrelenting shine, PayPal’s love letter to crypto, the cross-pollination of crypto and TradFi through the tokenization of off-chain assets, and the nascent Avalanche spring.
https://carbono.substack.com/p/88-love-is-in-the-airoff-chain
- Today's newsletter delves into half a dozen (plus one) joyous tokens that have been performing exceptionally well lately. We've picked them not just for their current behavior but also because their trajectory sheds light on the industry, its history, and the status quo. They tell the stories of regulation, bridges with TradFi, degen trading, infrastructure, and even NFTs.
https://carbono.substack.com/p/87-greatest-hits-7-coins-to-explain
- While the market may not be unequivocally bullish just yet, this newsletter certainly is.
- There's an ETF very likely happening soon, bringing a four-leaf clover of good omens to crypto.
- The verdict in SBF's case is a victory for the crypto industry
- The SEC is engaged in discussions with PayPal regarding their stablecoin. Dialogue is always good.
- Data from digital asset funds and insights from on-chain data provide reasons for optimism.
- Even Musk's critique of NFTs carries a hint of praise.
Read on in our newsletter.
https://carbono.substack.com/p/86-a-positive-shift-in-fortune
- We're currently riding the crypto bull wave, and while it's a thrilling ride, there's no guarantee it'll last forever. But can we enjoy it for a moment? Instead of drowning again in discussions about regulations and macroeconomics, could we return our attention to the fascinating projects working hard to improve crypto?
In today's issue, we've got the lowdown on what's fueling the crypto frenzy – those ETFs, of course – but we're also diving into the exciting world of specific names such as dYdX, Chainlink, Polygon, and trends such as staking. Because we believe they are here to stay.
https://carbono.substack.com/p/85-more-than-etfs
- A spot bitcoin ETF is possible, and if it manages to revert the bearish trend, crypto will be readier than ever to emerge from the depths of the bear market. This is what our last newsletter is about.
The halving is coming, institutions are ready, and crypto keeps working on the significant issues: true decentralization (is Lido a risk to the ecosystem?), actual business models vs ponzinomics (Uniswap Labs’ fee), and the relationship between TradFi and DeFi (represented in this issue by Mountain Protocol).
https://carbono.substack.com/p/84-not-if-but-when
- Last week wasn’t pretty. Crypto’s most notorious sins have taken the spotlight thanks to the trial against Sam Bankman-Fried. So, we thought it might be a good moment to rip the band-aid and speak openly about crypto’s most important ailments.
We write about SBF's trial, layoffs, the decreasing VC funding, hacks... but end on a positive note because we believe in the long run.
Ripping the band-aid at once in 3, 2, 1...
https://carbono.substack.com/p/82-ripping-the-band-aid-the-ugly
- Today’s newsletter focuses mostly on use cases. We’re pleased to announce that there will be less talk about concise infrastructure designs and more discussion about the practical aspects of crypto. There’s a lot about good old speculation, the blood that runs through our veins, but we also have stories about plush penguins, shared computing power, and stock trading.
https://carbono.substack.com/p/81-uses-cases-speculation-plush-toys
- Just one more week of September remains. Many refer to this month as "Rektember" due to its tendency to bring losses to the markets, and 2023 is no exception. Most of the leading crypto metrics, such as total market cap, DeFi traded volume, or stablecoin supply, remain frozen or tend to slide downwards.
Yet, things never stop. This is one of the most diverse newsletters we've ever published. We write about infrastructure, institutional investment, killer apps, a little bit of drama, branding in Web 3 and some cryptop history.
https://carbono.substack.com/p/80-rektember-is-packed-eclipse-stirs
- Please excuse us if we sound too bullish, but there are many reasons to be optimistic, especially in the long term, about crypto. We are well aware that numbers tell a different story: we're stuck in the flats in total crypto market cap, DeFi TVL, stablecoin supply... But the news come full of long-term optimistic signals.
- ETFs in general look good. Used to be bitcoin only but now it's also spot ETF.
- Solana has brought with grandiose announcements of mainstream adoption.
- The IMF confirms that crypto is not going anywhere
- Tokenization of real-world assets continues to build up momentum
- We're make strides towards privacy-respecting blockchain technology
- Crypto finds new use cases related to the leading trend, AI
Read about these stories in our weekly newsletter, Carbono Insights.
https://carbono.substack.com/p/78-solana-rising-imf-says-crypto
- We knew that a powerful enough catalyst would trigger some volatility in a low trading volume crypto, and the catalyst happened: Grayscale’s legal victory against the SEC sparked a short-lived peak of optimism before retracting to last week’s numbers.
The rally didn’t last because there are no strong enough reasons to change the direction of the market these days. The decision over Grayscale attracted some impulsive traders. And as easily as they came, they left a few days later, maybe repelled by the SEC’s announcement to delay their decision on the bitcoin spot ETF submissions. An expected stance, but lately, it looks like there’s not much more to hold on to.
I our weekly newsletter we review:
- Grayscale wins over SEC
- SEC says NFTs can be securities
- Aerodrome extends Base's streak
- What does a world without Binance look like?
- Product-Market Fit in crpyto
- SWIFT and Chainlink partner up to connect institutional to the blockchain
https://carbono.substack.com/p/77-grayscale-wins-a-battle-for-etfs
- While we were entering the last days of yet another week of slumber, crypto was hit by a strike of doubt that turned the slight downward slope of the last weeks into a full step down.
Before the plummet, we had decided to write this newsletter about the events that give us reasons to remain optimistic facing the tedious market movements. Instead of changing the tone, we decided to stick with it in spite of everything because a), we’re bored of the bad news and b) volatility in the markets doesn’t have to translate to volatility in the newsletters.
https://carbono.substack.com/p/75-crypto-through-rose-colored-glasses
- Many big names are getting involved in crypto, bringing unequivocal signs of long-term crypto adoption. Names that, in other times, would have triggered waves of hype and adoption. Still, price and activity are sluggish in crypto.
This and more in Carbono Insights #74 | Crypto-Cola
https://carbono.substack.com/p/74-crypto-cola
- Wen Lens based TikTok alternative?
- Crypto is like lava, but not hot as in hot or trendy. More like flat like water and moving slow.
Ait’s not like nothing is happening in the space or the economy. China approaches a slowdown, Fitch has downgraded US debt...
Crypto is searching for the next catalyst while interesting developments continue within its realm. Keep reading to stay updated on Curve’s hack and its consequences, Base’s initial steps, potential new ETFs (not related to Bitcoin), and the latest updates from Binance, Maker, and the platform formerly known as Twitter.
https://carbono.substack.com/p/73-crypto-is-lava
- Carbono Insights #72 is out
In the middle of the summer slumber, three entrepreneurs emerge as the leading forces in crypto
News is coming from the outside of crypto, from entrepreneur royalty, like Elon Musk, Mark Zuckerberg, and recently anointed Sam Altman from Open AI. Musk keeps shaking Twitter, Zuckerberg has updated his allegiance to the metaverse, and Altman is using crypto to solve some challenges brought up -drumroll- by AI.
https://carbono.substack.com/p/72-altman-musk-and-zuckerberg
- Ripple emerged victorious in its recent battle against the SEC (though the war is far from over), while crypto's inflows reached new heights, as reported by Coinshares.
But amidst this excitement, the rollercoaster ride of bitcoin and ether prices has gone remarkably flat, stubbornly resisting the $30k and $2k thresholds.
Is it the summer slumber, the looming regulatory uncertainty from the US Senate, or perhaps signals of turmoil in the Chinese economy?
Carbono Insights #71 is out.
https://carbono.substack.com/p/71-ripples-ripples
- Following months of a slight downward price trend, major cryptocurrencies, led by bitcoin, have experienced a resurgence.
Crypto got unexpected support from BlackRock's filing for a spot bitcoin ETF and Jerome Powell's nice words. But these were only the cracks in the wall -there are many other developments in the relationship between crypto and institutional investors. From the launch of a compliance-friendly exchange by top-tier TradFi firms to a renewed interest in US Treasuries from Circle and Maker.
Read about the latest wave of optimism in crypto, here.
https://carbono.substack.com/p/69-institutional-investment-the-force
- The current bear market has two main aspects: the macro context and regulatory uncertainty. Crypto possesses the necessary tools to withstand both challenges. It offers a window of opportunity for traditional finance, which will flourish once conditions improve. Regulatory clarity, one of those essential conditions, is only a matter of time. Maybe regulation in the US will not be favorable in the end. But we simply need them to be clear. Crypto will pave its own path.
Meanwhile, for all you enthusiasts still paying attention, here is an update on how the industry is progressing.
* Uniswap Labs unveils the protocol's V4, featuring an intriguing foundational approach.
* USDT experiences a temporary depegging, triggering a wave of transparency from Tether.
* Polygon announces V2 with a new philosophy.
* Blackrock aims to succeed where Grayscale failed: introducing a spot Bitcoin ETF.
* We thoroughly enjoyed an article from Andreessen Horowitz about decentralization and why we're still here.
* We provide some quick tips on how to safely engage with a protocol.
https://carbono.substack.com/p/68-macro-waves-crypto-currents
- **Carbono Insights #67 Friendly reminder**
The SEC's crackdown last week was strong but not surprising. There were more reminders than news: of the lack of regulatory clarity, of crypto's resilience, and also its state of stagnation.
https://carbono.substack.com/p/67-friendly-reminder
- Last week the tepidness of crypto markets gave us a break from the feverish reporting of crazy developments and allowed other narratives to emerge: Hong Kong’s upcoming crypto-friendly regulation, the latest chapters of Tornado Cash (one of the most influential chapters in crypto) and FTX (crypto’s most entertaining soap opera).
https://carbono.substack.com/p/65-the-butterfly-effect
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Hopefully, the industry will put it to better use than memecoins. But, as you can see below, we remain in this strange territory where crypto is fighting regulatory battles and gaining a reputation in the macro scenario. Yet, at the same time, things behind the curtains revolve around stuff like memecoins.
https://carbono.substack.com/p/61-another-bank-bites-the-dust
- Altcoin season is when things move fast, and investors become careless. With liquidity reaching every corner of crypto, every project looks successful. It's easy to get swept up in the excitement.
It looks like the recent tailwinds are pushing us toward the altcoin season.
In the last issue of Carbono Insights, we discuss some of those tailwinds.
1. Ethereum | Where to look after Shapella
2. Scalability | Zk-rollup ecosystem
3. Macro | Recent indicators bullish for crypto
4. RWA | Real-world assets are still around
5. Ethereum | EIP-4844
6. Adoption | Solana Saga mobile
https://carbono.substack.com/p/59-altcoin-season
- Shapella is roughly 24h away. The liquid staking race takes a new turn tomorrow. Thankfully, Ethereum's fork has taken us away from the neverending story of regulatory interference and enforcement actions.
In our latest issue of Carbono Insights, we review what will happen to Ethereum in the short term*. We also write about how Arbitrum has botched governance, rumors of Amazon's NFT marketplace, STAMPS, the new Nemesis for bitcoiners, the Swiss bank that's doing the opposite of US banks, and Opensea's counterattack on Blur
https://carbono.substack.com/p/58-let-the-games-begin
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The banking crisis has gone quiet, but regulatory pressure is still high. Nevertheless, crypto keeps doing its thing: after Arbitrum, zero-knowledge L2s take the stage. Also, Shapella and bitcoin. While we’re surrounded by things we cannot control (like Elizabeth Warren), we’ll keep focusing on the things we’re passionate about.
Read about this in Carbono Insights #57
* We can’t forget about regulation, so we’ll talk about Operation Choke Point 2.0, But we’re more interested in other news
* We have a date with Shapella and Ethereum unstaking.
* It’s zero-knowledge time: zk-rollups come out of the cave after months of expectations.
* It’s been one week since Arbitrum’s airdrop, and we checked what has remained after the noise.
* China is looking favorably at crypto again through crypto-friendly jurisdiction, Hong Kong.
* Bitcoin is on its way to hosting a whole ecosystem of DeFi, and L2s
https://carbono.substack.com/p/57-tech-against-the-machine
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Bitcoin was born to offer an alternative to the excesses of a financial system becoming less and less worthy of trust. The whole existence of crypto is a huge question mark sprayed on the global financial clockwork. And the current banking crisis, albeit smaller than its precedents, is another reminder that the world might be hanging on strings.
Maybe that’s one of the reasons why the financial establishment has recently taken its gloves off against the industry.
Read more in Carbono Insights #56
https://carbono.substack.com/p/56-the-resistance
- After the collapse of three crypto-friendly banks and the subsequent version of an on-chain bank run, everything looked bleak with the depeg of USDC. But the tides turned, and after crypto was singled out as the problem, people started discussing the possible widespread banking crisis. And crypto was in again.
USDT thrived, Arbitrum launched a token, Meta ditched NFTs, and Liquid Staking Tokens got the spotlight again, thanks to the announcement of a date for Shapella.
https://carbono.substack.com/p/55-we-didnt-start-the-fire
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The third and fourth biggest bank shutdowns happened last week, in what appears to be either an emerging banking crisis or a covert operation against crypto from US regulators. Maybe both.
But crypto is a tardigrade mixed with a Gremlin. It can endure extreme pressures, radiation, and even the lack of oxygen. But if you feed it after midnight or make it wet, it will multiply. And many other countries are armed with food and water, ready to welcome the new creature. The US could be bullying one of the best future use cases for US Dollars.
https://carbono.substack.com/p/54-the-banking-system-tests-cryptos
- Infrastructure is trendy again. Devs and investors have set their eyes on the different solutions: L1s, L2s, appchains, and modular chains.. Although nobody seems to know what vision will prevail.
In this issue of Carbono Insights we introduce the 4 main coexisting and interconnected narratives. Also, Silvergate’s troubles, Mt.Gox light at the end of the tunnel, on-chain whale watching, improving crypto’s UX (please!), Uniswap’s wallet, and Botto’s dashboard.
https://carbono.substack.com/p/53-the-infrastructure-conundrum
- Carbono Insights #52 | Blue, da ba dee🔵
Coinbase is bringing together the best decentralized and centralized worlds by launching a Layer 2. It’s been their vision for long to attract users with a sleek UI and a compliant philosophy, but always with true crypto as their north star. Base is a leap forward in this direction: an Optimims- based, Ethereum-secured Layer 2 where degens can go wild and institutionals can be safe.
The week’s been positive in a few other aspects. The regulatory landscape has shown us that there are other ways to approach crypto, and many other projects can be proud of their progress: Arbitrum, Uniswap, and ourselves! We’re pushing the launch of Notable Pepes on Ethereum.
Read it here, and remember you can collect a free NFT by sharing the newsletter on Lens or Twitter (and tagging us, so that we don't miss you!)
https://carbono.substack.com/p/52-blue-da-ba-dee
- We kick off our latest Carbono Insights issue with the latest enforcement moves by the SEc, but we’re not short on massive trends in crypto lately.
We start by outlining the four latest regulatory moves by the SEC (Kraken and staking, Binance and Paxos and stablecoins, custody, and Do Kwon’s prosecution).
But we also update readers on the latest around macro crypto narratives (bitcoin is a liquidity play) LSDs (decentralization matters), L2s (zero-knowledge rollups warm-up), royalty wars in NFT marketplaces.
And last but not least, we share more great news about Botto: we recently had the chance to welcome Variant Fund to our family of Bottonians.
Remember, you can earn an NFT by sharing this newsletter. Ask me how!
https://carbono.substack.com/p/51-the-sec-summer
- Carbono Insights #50 is out. when we finished writing it, we didn't know yet about BUSD sunsetting, but we were already talking about Gensler's mighty hammer. It looks like the US is taking an intransigent stance against crypto. Brace yourselves
Apart from regulatory pressure and the possible CPI setback of today, things remain exciting in crypto, if you ask me. AI tokens, NFT sales, RWA...there are many reasons to be optimistic.
https://carbono.substack.com/p/50-gary-genslers-big-hammer
- January is over, and, who would’ve thought, this has been bitcoin’s best beginning of the year since 2013? Things are getting hectic in crypto again, with projects pumping for good reasons, weak reasons, unclear reasons, or even wrong reasons. Remember to DYOR.
In Carbono Insights #49 we write about token hikes, bitcoin NFTs, sensible airdrops, criticism from an investment legend, boring but potentially life-changing technical details, and more.
https://carbono.substack.com/p/49-beware-of-the-bull
- Carbono Insights #48 is out. The last issue in the month of January has brought us 30% raises. Crypto is up,… but we can’t tell if this is good or bad.
The correlation between crypto and traditional markets has done nothing but increase. A stronger economy might be a reason for the Fed to ease up on interest rate hikes or, on the contrary, to push them a little further without the fear of pushing the economy into recession.
We don’t quite know what to make of this rise yet, but we do know some things we like and don’t: we like the immersion of Real World Assets in crypto, and we don’t like Aptos. We think that by now, we should know better. We like what we’re learning about Shanghai, seeing NFT collections moving to more scalable pastures, and hearing what asset managers think about crypto.
https://carbono.substack.com/p/48-bad-news-is-good-news-or-the-opposite
- Does anybody REALLY understand how withdrawals are going to work after Shanghai?
I keep reading confusing stuff...
- To those still out there reading newsletters about crypto, we’re happy to announce that the most interesting developments in the last week have finally got back to being about engineering and finance.
There’s still some drama, with Genesis announcing bankruptcy and the DoJ closing an unknown exchange, but most of what’s interesting these days has to do with Liquid Staking Derivatives, Layer 2s, on-chain metrics, and roadmaps.
To be honest, it feels great to be back speaking about this.
https://carbono.substack.com/p/47-developers-at-work
- Carbono Insights #46 is out.
In our latest issue, we dare to be optimistic.
We don't want to minimize the challenges ahead (we actually write about the HR drama after the layoffs in Coinbase, Consensys, and Crypto.com), but the fact that the latest crises have not moved the needle in terms of price indicates that most sellers have left the room.
In the meantime, tech is delivering (with Shanghai moving at cruise speed), and the industry is taking steps toward a more trusted relationship with TradFI (Circle's reserves and Ondo's tokenized assets).
We mint a commemorative NFT for every issue. For this occasion, we asked Dall-E to draw “an empty business district on a foggy day in Turner style" to represent the quiet, gloomy moment crypto is going through. The AI painted that red dot in the building in the background. We like to think that's the room where engineers and entrepreneurs build for the next wave of adoption and trust.
https://carbono.substack.com/p/47-some-bottom-signals
- Only time will tell if this was the best idea in the middle of a bull market, but we've started to publish our Carbono Insights newsletter every week instead of every two weeks.
CI #45 is our second issue in 2023. I'll start sharing them here, hoping to find frens to discuss with about our writings.
In CI#45 we wanted to keep it constructive, so we speak about the most exciting corner of crypto lately, liquid staking and Liquid Staking Derivatives on Ethereum.
https://carbono.substack.com/p/45-liquid-staking-derivatives-optimism
We also wrote an explainer for noobies, if someone needs a softer landing
https://medium.com/carbonocom/intro-to-liquid-staking-derivatives-1103b4637975
We also wrote about the not-so-flattering parts of crypto these days. The ongoing drama at DCG, the bak run on Silvergate (with a rather troubling message from institutional), and the tremors in Huobi of the shrinking VC stats.
I hope you read it, like it, and discuss it!
- Finally here!