MrBoard (@mrboard) • Hey

Early to Rugz, late to LP.

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I just voted "Against" on "AIP-1: Arbitrum Improvement Proposal Framework" https://snapshot.org/#/arbitrumfoundation.eth/proposal/0x3be7368a662d1cf12fa4da768d626edbc013be0dc7b994fef2e24d9a54e4033a #snapshotlabs
Let's GHOOOOOOO! We are live on Testnet! 👻 gho.xyz Stay up to date on all things GHO here (and grab the genesis edition collect!)
Create together, earn together 🌿 Creators can now split revenue earned from Collects. Share earnings with as many as 5 creators. With custom percentage splits. Collects is among the most popular features on Lens. We recently added the option to set limited quantities and/or time limits to collectible posts. We’re excited to offer new ways for collectors to support creators, and for creators to monetize with Collects. Learn how to implement the Multi recipient Fee Collect Module in our dev docs: https://docs.lens.xyz/docs/create-post-typed-data#multirecipientfeecollectmodule Start using Splits today on @buttrfly.lens , @lenster.lens & @lenstube.lens - with more soon to come!
$ARB PRICE SCENARIOS 🦅🔵 Investor price* → Market Cap 85M - ARB $0.07 Pessimistic → Market Cap 360M - ARB $0.30 Moderate → Market Cap 780M - ARB $0.65 Optimistic → Market Cap 1.4B - ARB null.20 Ecstatic 🎉 → Market Cap 3.0B - ARB $2.50 @Arbitrum Thread 🧵 - Let's estimate 🧠 $ARB is launching in 6 days Snapshot Date: Feb 6th 2023 Many active DeFi got this airdrop (12% of the total supply) How much could $ARB be worth a few days after launch? 1/18 Arbitrum One is the biggest Ethereum Layer2 blockchain in the space, by TVL and market share • Market share: 55% • TVL: $3.7B 2/18 Today we will roughly try to estimate $ARB price valuation a few days after launch - after the dust settles. By using: • Total & initial circulating supply • Market Benchmarks • Percentage airdropped 3/18 TOKENOMICS • Team & Advisors: 26.94% • Investors: 17.53% • Treasury: 42.78% • Airdrop to users: 11.62% • Airdrop to Arbitrum DAOs: 1.13% 4/18 TOKEN SUPPLY • Total supply: 10B tokens (10,000,000,000) • Circulating supply on 1st day: roughly 1.2B (1,200,000,000) ~12% of total supply User airdrop is immediately unlocked. It's safe to assume that Airdrop to Arbitrum DAOs will not enter the market right away 5/18 AIRDROP CRITERIA • Conducting transactions during 2-9 distinct months • Transaction frequency & interaction (4-100) • Arbitrum Nova activity: 3-10 transactions • Bridging to Arbitrum & Arbitrum Nova • Transaction value: $10k-$250k • Providing liquidity: $10k-$250k 6/18 🔗 Check your eligibility here: arbitrum.foundation 🚨 Careful with scam links, always get your link from @Arbitrum twitter Now, let's try to make scenarios for $ARB's price 👇 7/18 FDV AND MARKET CAP MEANING • Fully Diluted Valuation (FDV) = total supply * token price • Market cap = circulating supply * token price With $ARB numbers: FDV = 10B * token price Market cap = 1.2B * token price Token price = ❓ 8/18 SPECULATING INVESTOR'S PRICE According to Crunchbase, Offchain Labs raised 120M. Investors are getting ~17% of the token supply, which is around 1.7B tokens. If they bought 1.7B tokens for $120M, then that's around $0.07 per ARB. Pure speculation 👀 9/18 The best benchmarks for $ARB are Optimism and Polygon, but we can also work with other chains. Let's compare: • Polygon $MATIC • Optimism $OP • Fantom $FTM • Solana $SOL 10/18 Optimism $OP - the 2nd biggest Ethereum L2 • TVL: $950 million (DefiLlama) • FDV: $10.8 billion • Market cap: $800 million If $ARB had this FDV, its price would be ~null.08 11/18 Polygon $MATIC • TVL: null.05 billion • FDV: $11.8 billion • Market cap: $10.7 billion If $ARB had this FDV, its price would be ~null.18 12/18 Fantom $FTM • TVL: $445 million • FDV: null.4 billion • Market cap: null.2 billion If $ARB had this FDV, its price would be ~$0.14 13/18 Solana $SOL • TVL: $245 million • Market cap: $7.7 billion • FDV: $10.9 billion If $ARB had this FDV, its price would be ~null.09 14/18 Summarizing: • $ARB with the FDV of $OP: null.08 • $ARB with the FDV of $MATIC: null.18 • $ARB with the FDV of $FTM: $0.14 • $ARB with the FDV of $SOL: null.09 15/18 If the market prices ARB at the same level as OP and MATIC (~10B FDV) then token price could be ~null.00 In contrast, for ARB price to be $3.00, its FDV needs to be 3 times the size of OP's. Yes, Arbitrum has two times Optimism's TVL, but I don't know if that is enough. 16/18 PRICE SCENARIOS Pessimistic → Market Cap 360M - ARB $0.30 Moderate → Market Cap 780M - ARB $0.65 Optimistic → Market Cap 1.4B - ARB null.20 Ecstatic 🎉 → Market Cap 3.0B - ARB $2.50 17/18 The first hours of trading will probably be a mess, so expect volatility. These numbers are just a price iteration and comparison to what's already out there. I don't expect them to make sense the first day of trading. 18/18 LIQUIDITY Remember Optimism partnered with Wintermute for liquidity on $OP launch; we should wait to see how Arbitrum does it. I think they will surely take care of initial liquidity. At which price would you sell $ARB? ⚡️ Join me on Telegram for lightning-fast alpha notifications: https://t.me/OlimpioAlpha 👥 Also, lots of DeFi and Airdrop talk is going on inside Earndrop's server, join here: https://earndrop.io/discord