kansh (@kansh) • Hey
kansh (@kansh) • Hey
Publications
- GM Lens Frens!
- Today marks our 1 Year Anniversary of making friends onchain 🎂!
Thank you to everyone who has made the first year of Lens Protocol so special and groundbreaking. Lens has brought together builders, creators, communities, and friends, all while in beta.
There's so much planned for the second year ahead, and we can't wait to continue to grow with all of you.
Who did you become frens with on Lens?
🎨 by @nftsushi.lens and all collect proceeds go directly to the artist.
- Asia is home to 1.7 billion gamers and contributes over $72 billion in annual gaming revenue making it a critical market according to DappRadar.
[Asia’s current gaming domination ‘crucial’ for Web3 games: DappRadar](https://cointelegraph.com/news/asia-s-current-gaming-domination-crucial-for-web3-games-dappradar)
Asia is home to 1.7 billion gamers and contributes over $72 billion in annual gaming revenue making it a critical market according to DappRadar.
- gm
- $ARB PRICE SCENARIOS 🦅🔵
Investor price* → Market Cap 85M - ARB $0.07
Pessimistic → Market Cap 360M - ARB $0.30
Moderate → Market Cap 780M - ARB $0.65
Optimistic → Market Cap 1.4B - ARB null.20
Ecstatic 🎉 → Market Cap 3.0B - ARB $2.50
@Arbitrum Thread 🧵 - Let's estimate 🧠
$ARB is launching in 6 days
Snapshot Date: Feb 6th 2023
Many active DeFi got this airdrop (12% of the total supply)
How much could $ARB be worth a few days after launch?
1/18
Arbitrum One is the biggest Ethereum Layer2 blockchain in the space, by TVL and market share
• Market share: 55%
• TVL: $3.7B
2/18
Today we will roughly try to estimate $ARB price valuation a few days after launch - after the dust settles. By using:
• Total & initial circulating supply
• Market Benchmarks
• Percentage airdropped
3/18
TOKENOMICS
• Team & Advisors: 26.94%
• Investors: 17.53%
• Treasury: 42.78%
• Airdrop to users: 11.62%
• Airdrop to Arbitrum DAOs: 1.13%
4/18
TOKEN SUPPLY
• Total supply: 10B tokens (10,000,000,000)
• Circulating supply on 1st day: roughly 1.2B (1,200,000,000)
~12% of total supply
User airdrop is immediately unlocked. It's safe to assume that Airdrop to Arbitrum DAOs will not enter the market right away
5/18
AIRDROP CRITERIA
• Conducting transactions during 2-9 distinct months
• Transaction frequency & interaction (4-100)
• Arbitrum Nova activity: 3-10 transactions
• Bridging to Arbitrum & Arbitrum Nova
• Transaction value: $10k-$250k
• Providing liquidity: $10k-$250k
6/18
🔗 Check your eligibility here: arbitrum.foundation
🚨 Careful with scam links, always get your link from @Arbitrum twitter
Now, let's try to make scenarios for $ARB's price 👇
7/18
FDV AND MARKET CAP MEANING
• Fully Diluted Valuation (FDV) = total supply * token price
• Market cap = circulating supply * token price
With $ARB numbers:
FDV = 10B * token price
Market cap = 1.2B * token price
Token price = ❓
8/18
SPECULATING INVESTOR'S PRICE
According to Crunchbase, Offchain Labs raised 120M.
Investors are getting ~17% of the token supply, which is around 1.7B tokens.
If they bought 1.7B tokens for $120M, then that's around $0.07 per ARB. Pure speculation 👀
9/18
The best benchmarks for $ARB are Optimism and Polygon, but we can also work with other chains. Let's compare:
• Polygon $MATIC
• Optimism $OP
• Fantom $FTM
• Solana $SOL
10/18
Optimism $OP - the 2nd biggest Ethereum L2
• TVL: $950 million (DefiLlama)
• FDV: $10.8 billion
• Market cap: $800 million
If $ARB had this FDV, its price would be ~null.08
11/18
Polygon $MATIC
• TVL: null.05 billion
• FDV: $11.8 billion
• Market cap: $10.7 billion
If $ARB had this FDV, its price would be ~null.18
12/18
Fantom $FTM
• TVL: $445 million
• FDV: null.4 billion
• Market cap: null.2 billion
If $ARB had this FDV, its price would be ~$0.14
13/18
Solana $SOL
• TVL: $245 million
• Market cap: $7.7 billion
• FDV: $10.9 billion
If $ARB had this FDV, its price would be ~null.09
14/18
Summarizing:
• $ARB with the FDV of $OP: null.08
• $ARB with the FDV of $MATIC: null.18
• $ARB with the FDV of $FTM: $0.14
• $ARB with the FDV of $SOL: null.09
15/18
If the market prices ARB at the same level as OP and MATIC (~10B FDV) then token price could be ~null.00
In contrast, for ARB price to be $3.00, its FDV needs to be 3 times the size of OP's.
Yes, Arbitrum has two times Optimism's TVL, but I don't know if that is enough.
16/18
PRICE SCENARIOS
Pessimistic → Market Cap 360M - ARB $0.30
Moderate → Market Cap 780M - ARB $0.65
Optimistic → Market Cap 1.4B - ARB null.20
Ecstatic 🎉 → Market Cap 3.0B - ARB $2.50
17/18
The first hours of trading will probably be a mess, so expect volatility.
These numbers are just a price iteration and comparison to what's already out there. I don't expect them to make sense the first day of trading.
18/18
LIQUIDITY
Remember Optimism partnered with Wintermute for liquidity on $OP launch; we should wait to see how Arbitrum does it. I think they will surely take care of initial liquidity.
At which price would you sell $ARB?
⚡️ Join me on Telegram for lightning-fast alpha notifications: https://t.me/OlimpioAlpha
👥 Also, lots of DeFi and Airdrop talk is going on inside Earndrop's server, join here: https://earndrop.io/discord
- Howdy lens frens
- Head to our booth at Eth Denver📍regenlandia, claim a POAP, and leave with more Lens knowledge and rare swag 🔥
- Lens BigQuery Public Dataset is Live 🔍
Read more about unlocking new possibilities in our blog
https://mirror.xyz/lensprotocol.eth/L-VyE549sOOdi4nBgos6XNAUgf3H1oErfkAtndU6RHY
Learn how it works in our developer docs
https://docs.lens.xyz/docs/public-big-query
- “I would love to see entrepreneurs building small use cases and iterating. Many ideas will fail but the point is to build fast, keep iterating and learning. Lens makes it easier and less risky to experiment.” @stani.lens at #ETHDenver
- gm gm #lens frens 🌿🌸
Support season is back, say hello to #Lenster on **Gitcoin GR15 round** 💚
https://gitcoin.co/grants/5007/lenster
All the contributions are given back to the community as a bounty 💸
🥁🥁🥁
Talking about bounty we are happy to announce our second bounty of **$10,000** 💸
**Wait waaattt!!!??**
Yes! We planned to build a **hybrid mobile app** for Lenster 📱
Designers and Devs stack our mail with your applications at yo@lenster.xyz 💌
- Let's build the future of web3 social at Eth Denver, with $25K in prizes up for grabs!
Register here https://app.buidlbox.io/guidl/lens-protocol
**Our bounties:**
***Best Lens Apps***
🥇 1st Prize - $7,000
🥈 2nd Prize - $5,000
🥉 3rd Prize - $3,000
***Integrations***
🏆 10 best Lens integrations - null,000 each
🤿 Dive into the Lens Social Graph with the new BigQuery public dataset, and think about creating a machine learning or data analytics tool for devs and creators to better understand their audience https://docs.lens.xyz/docs/public-big-query
🤍 Build new social experiences with mental health in mind, increase self-awareness of social media consumption, or improve the experience of collecting content.
🎶 Think how Token-gated drops on social media could help to empower both fans and artists, you could create a music experience helping collectors find new music.
🌆 Think about events and how people could network at conferences through Lens, consider the value of a person's attendance history, and imagine a world where tickets can be collected posts.
🎨 Explore ways to make content creation seamless for the Lens community. Build tools that empower content creators, and offer them unique features to take their content to the next level
🤝 Noodle on the idea of more brands entering web3, and think about ways to create a loyalty program for them on Lens and enable purchasing with a crypto wallet.
🫡 With more and more DAOs being created, explore how they could integrate token-gated voting or delegate profile actions to other wallets
Explore our new Lens Widgets, and integrate follow, share, and sign-in with Lens into your project or existing web3 front-end. https://github.com/lens-protocol/lens-widgets
Dev Docs https://docs.lens.xyz/docs
Hackathon Guide https://lens.xyz/hackathons
Keep this Lens integrations doc handy as it has some useful tutorials featured to help https://docs.lens.xyz/docs/integrating-lens
👩💻 Lens SDK details here 👉 https://github.com/lens-protocol/lens-sdk
📱 React Native Lens UI Kit (for mobile devs) https://github.com/lens-protocol/react-native-lens-ui-kit
🤝 Join our Lens Discord community to meet others building on Lens https://discord.gg/lensprotocol
Good luck, the team will be at our booth in MetaLand. Come show us what you are building to get some rare swag!
- New Lens intern video just dropped
Feat. @orbapp @phaver @lenstaxyz
- Gm everyone,like lenster,lets try Wav3s @wav3s
✅Make sure you have at least 20 followers(Prevent too many robots)
✅Follow (I set the follow to repost and get rewards)
✅Morror this post
✅like or reply this post((This is only an optional, if you do thank you very much))
🚀16.6WMRIC divided equally to first 166 people(0.1 for each)
- airdrop szn.
- Boom 💥 Airdrop 2 for the first 3K done ✅
This piece is Eternal Garden 3000 - a reminder that we are here to coordinate for flourishing futures for all 🌱
Let's keep the fun going, frens - next snapshot will be taken at 6,942 followers 🔥
- gm lens frens
- Using Midjourney AI for new pfp
- It’s GHO time! We are now live on Ethereum’s Goerli Testnet!
**GHO’s Codebase**
The GHO code is public and available on GitHub: https://github.com/aave/gho-core
**Bug Bounty**
Help us squash bugs! Follow the governance forum to learn more about bug bounties
https://governance.aave.com/t/gho-development-update-testnet-release/11631
**Next Steps**
- Get involved here: https://twitter.com/AaveAave/status/1623683916665360384
- Get started at gho.xyz and follow the GHO journey @gho.lens
- Thanks for all the love over the course of the last 24 hours. Just did airdrop 1 for the first 1,000 followers on Lens.
Let's make this interesting... Will be taking a snapshot of the first 3,000 - are you in, anon?
- Stoked on Square Enix x Polygon Partnership. LFG!
- GM anons, just another day of writing for me.
- Something is steaming...🥟 @dumpling.lens
- gm lens frens