ET.“e/acc” (@hi_bit) • Hey

Digital Society Natives/Crypto OG/Force/TuringMan

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Why did the historic interest rate hike in the yen cause a drop in US risk assets? Let's examine the reasons. During the era of negative interest rates, Japan intensified overseas investments to seek higher returns. Some data reveals: North America accounts for 41%; Europe accounts for 26%; Central and South America account for 17%; and other regions account for 15%. From this data, it is evident that Japan has invested heavily in the United States and Europe, indicating that there is a significant amount of Japanese capital in US stocks, US bonds, cryptocurrencies, and other risk assets. However, after the historic interest rate hike in the yen, two impacts emerged for the world: Firstly, although the yen's interest rate hike was significant, it marked the first historic interest rate hike in over 30 years of long-term negative interest rates, signifying the end of the era of negative and low interest rates. Secondly, this symbolic event made Japanese capital, which had flowed overseas, concerned about future interest rate hikes and thus prompted early withdrawal of liquidity investments from North America, Europe, and other regions to repay negative interest rate loans in Japan. This indirect withdrawal of liquidity from the United States also impacted the liquidity of risk assets. As a result, US stocks fell, and assets such as cryptocurrencies also declined.
According to CoinShares' mining report, the average production cost per bitcoin is expected to be $ 37,856 after the 2024 halving.
The market lacks new people and new money. The rebound of altcoins is weak, and there is no leading sector. The market remains mainly volatile. It's not advisable to chase highs; trading requires careful selection. The era of making easy money has passed; it's now the PVP stage.
https://x.com/RunesPunks/status/1777537202404118759
Oh my, I've caught a cold these days.
If you lack money, you will be subject to your family of origin and be subject to environments, people, and things you don't like.
The overall price of BTC took a hit from #Runestone 🤣
According to official sources, BNB Smart Chain (BSC) is rolling out a major upgrade called "BEP 336," based on Ethereum's EIP 4844. This upgrade aims to optimize the storage and processing of data on the blockchain, significantly reducing transaction costs and enhancing network performance. BEP 336 introduces the concept of "Blob Carrying Transactions" (BlobTx), where these blobs are carefully designed to simplify the transaction verification process of the network. The network no longer needs to individually verify every transaction in a block but only needs to verify if the attached blob contains accurate data.
Breaking News: Two senior executives from Binance have been kidnapped in Nigeria, with a ransom demand of $ 10 billion USD. The two executives, Tigran Gambaryan and Nadeem Anjarwalla, were invited by the Nigerian government to discuss dispute details on February 25th. After the initial meeting with government officials, they were taken to a hotel operated by the Nigerian National Security Agency and forcibly detained. Nigeria has demanded that Binance pay a $ 10 billion USD fine. Gambaryan, Binance's Head of Financial Crime Compliance, is a U.S. citizen, while Anjarwalla, Binance's Regional Manager for Africa based in Kenya, holds dual citizenship of the UK and Kenya. Despite visits from U.S. and UK government officials, Nigerian government guards were present during the meetings. Notably, Gambaryan is a former special agent of the U.S. Internal Revenue Service Criminal Investigation (IRS-CI) Cyber Crimes Unit. A Binance spokesperson stated: "While it is not appropriate for us to comment on the substance of these allegations at this time, we can say that we are cooperating with Nigerian authorities to safely return Gambaryan and Anjarwalla to their families." Nigeria accuses cryptocurrency exchanges of undermining the country's plummeting currency. Nigeria, with a population exceeding 220 million, is Africa's largest economy and has faced numerous currency crises in the past. This marks the first time cryptocurrency has played a major role. In recent years, Nigerians have turned to cryptocurrencies to protect their savings from soaring inflation rates, reaching nearly 30% in January. The currency's collapse is among the worst-performing currencies globally this year, with two-thirds of the population living in poverty. Nigeria has the second-highest cryptocurrency adoption rate globally, after India. Data shows Nigerians received approximately $ 60 billion USD worth of cryptocurrency transactions in the 12 months ending June 2023. Due to restrictions by the Nigerian government on who can exchange local currency for USD and at what rate, many seek refuge in USD-pegged stablecoins. Stablecoin trading has effectively become a black market, with unofficial exchange rates between the local currency, the Naira, and the USD far below the government's rates. Binance, as reported by currency traders, has become the preferred platform for checking black market rates.
😍**BTC Reaches 70k:** **Black Swan Event Dubbed "311 Incident"**
https://matr1x.io/max-event?ic=j2Qu4q
https://www.web3sj.com/news/105952/
@DIMO_Network🤑 DIMO is an automotive IoT platform that allows drivers to collect and share data from their vehicles. Drivers can gain insights into their vehicles and contribute data to an open ecosystem for building new technologies and applications, earning DIMO tokens through participation. By sharing data and leveraging the DIMO APP to provide services to car owners, we aim to drive towards a future where roads are safer and driving experiences are enhanced through data-driven solutions.
I believe your ideas are good, and it also proves that the direction of Ethscriptions is correct. You have endorsed the direction of the new type of assets in the script. In this direction, facing new opportunities, we should honestly acknowledge the existence of Ethscriptions, and time will prove that it was created first. On this basis, there is no problem for the old project ENS to innovate, as long as it respects Ethscriptions as a predecessor. Respect the advanced nature of Ethscriptions.
In conclusion, while Lightning Network offers significant advantages in comparison to other L2s, its limited programmability restricts its use cases primarily to micropayments. Unlike Turing complete virtual machines like Ethereum’s EVM, Lightning Network relies on Bitcoin Scripts, which lack expressive power.
SuperRare-Botto
Recently, both BTC and ETH have seen decent increases. I personally analyzed the reasons behind it: --Following the BTC-ETF approval, there has been an inflow into BTC, albeit moderate, with strong advertising effects. With the upcoming ETH-ETF approval, many believe that since BTC-ETF passed, there's no reason why ETH-ETF shouldn't, which is starting to have a price effect. --The anticipation of BTC halving is also starting to factor in. --Looking at this chart, we're still some distance from the Altcoin75 line. It's now a period for DCA (Dollar Cost Averaging) to get on board.
On February 16, 2024, in the early hours (U.S. time, February 15), OpenAI released "Sora," a text-to-video tool. The entire world was once again shaken. People across the globe exclaimed on social media platforms in countless languages: Reality no longer exists.
A stylish woman walks down a Tokyo street filled with warm glowing neon and animated city signage. She wears a black leather jacket, a long red dress, and black boots, and carries a black purse. She wears sunglasses and red lipstick. She walks confidently and casually. The street is damp and reflective, creating a mirror effect of the colorful lights. Many pedestrians walk about.
Experiencing the Chinese New Year these days, super awesome.
Nobody
I believe your ideas are good, and it also proves that the direction of Ethscriptions is correct. You have endorsed the direction of the new type of assets in the script. In this direction, facing new opportunities, we should honestly acknowledge the existence of Ethscriptions, and time will prove that it was created first. On this basis, there is no problem for the old project ENS to innovate, as long as it respects Ethscriptions as a predecessor. Respect the advanced nature of Ethscriptions.
Ladies and gentlemen, we need to pay attention to the innovative token "Pandora_ERC404" and its concept of "Graphene Bifurcation." There are opportunities for wealth here.
Oh my, we've been unable to log in for many days due to issues with the program. Perhaps we can finally do so now.
"Everyone is looking forward to a potential airdrop from @Starknet, hoping it will inject a booster shot into the Layer2 industry. The specifics, including the amount and method of distribution, are still unclear. However, one thing is certain: it seems to be the time for ZK-Rollup projects, particularly Starknet, to conduct an airdrop to 'rescue' the market. In my view, this airdrop could act as a catalyst for ZK-Rollups and be a self-redemption move. Why? 1) ZK-Rollup is often considered the ultimate solution among Layer2 Rollup schemes. Compared to optimistic rollups (OP-Rollup), which are seen as transitional solutions, ZK-Rollup is destined to prevail. The technical debate surrounding OP-Rollup and ZK-Rollup has persisted for too long. In terms of Finality Proof, providing a certain state for each transaction, ZK-Rollup challenges the optimistic challenge period of 7 days present in Fraud Proof. From the perspective of personal sovereignty, the future of Rollup undoubtedly belongs to ZK-Rollup, leaving no room for doubt. According to L2Beat data, among 65 Rollup projects, 26 are ZK-Rollup solutions, while OP-Rollup has only 21 in comparison. These ZK-Rollup projects, such as Scroll and Taiko, aim for ultimate EVM equivalence to enhance compatibility with the Ethereum mainnet. Meanwhile, zkSync and Starknet pursue comprehensive scalability, seeking to increase incremental users for the mainnet by improving transaction processing speed and throughput. Aztec focuses on addressing transaction privacy issues through ZK, and others like dYdX and zkSync Lite explore the potential of ZK technology in trading and payment directions. Overall, ZK-Rollup technology is becoming increasingly specialized, focusing excessively on details to achieve a more refined technical narrative, such as stringent circuit efficiency and complete EVM equivalence. Pursuing cutting-edge technology is not inherently wrong, but it's crucial for teams not to neglect user experience. ZK technology was intended to solve practical problems, and overemphasizing technology may distract from this initial purpose. This observation is not only mine but also reflects genuine market sentiments. For ZK-Rollup projects, it's essential to strike a balance between technical pursuits and practical market demands. The goal should be to enhance the deployability of ZK technology and provide a high-quality user experience. Teams should avoid getting immersed in self-gratification through VC-driven technical narratives (no names mentioned). 2) Although the airdrop standards for Starknet are not yet clear, its airdrop values and objectives are well known. For instance, distributing STRK to DApp developers to incentivize project building; distributing STRK to early ECMP community contributors (contents, meetups, workshops, etc.); allocating 900 million STRK for future user rebates, among other purposes. It's evident that Starknet's airdrop distribution will consider individual contributions and values. Moreover, it emphasizes the long-term ecological incentive effect of airdrops. Therefore, I predict that the STRK airdrop scale will reach a 'sweet spot' for most people. This serves as a switch to stimulate continuous contributions to ZK-Rollup. Additionally, most tokens will be distributed through Paymaster and Transaction bindings, serving as a gas fee subsidy in future ecological contributions while being released linearly. Looking at Starknet's catastrophic TVL data and the suboptimal user transaction experience, you can understand why transaction rebates are needed. Although 'Lumao' (literal translation: wool party, referring to users who generate transactions for rewards) has made substantial contributions in the early stages, it's not enough. Hence, openly providing rebates. Keep coming, preferably more vigorously. After all, the contributions of 'Lumao' are substantial and genuine. This suggests that retrospective airdrops may be less effective than potential future airdrops. Starknet's airdrop incentive game is just beginning, ensuring that participants don't dissipate after a cake-cutting frenzy. Tokenomics is a double-edged sword. Projects like Starknet, backed by a solid team, capital, and technology, are unlikely to easily deploy this powerful tool. There have been precedents in history where the ecosystem became desolate after a lively airdrop. For ecosystems with high technical thresholds and poor user experiences, such as ZK, it poses an even greater challenge. However, facing the current bleak state of the ecosystem, aside from Tokenomics, this final trump card, how else can the story of ZK-Rollup be continued?"
Comparison with other L2 solutions: Compare Starknet with Arbitrum (FDV $ 10 billion, circulating supply 13%, TVL $ 7.3 billion), Optimism (FDV $ 7.2 billion, circulating supply 21%, TVL $ 3.7 billion), and Polygon (FDV $ 7.6 billion, circulating supply 93%, TVL at least $ 820 million). Market valuation and equity sale: Starknet was valued at $ 8 billion in May 2022, but in July 2023, it was sold over-the-counter at $ 4 billion (50% discount) for Starkware equity. Estimated FDV at STRK issuance: Based on TVL and user experience, it is expected that the FDV at STRK issuance will be less than $ 7 billion (poor metrics - TVL, transactions per second, and usage difficulty). Airdrop allocation: 9% of the community supply may be used for airdrops, and the remaining 8.1% may be allocated for future purposes. If 2.5% of the 9% is used for StarkEx users, then 6.5% of the total supply is used for Starknet users. Airdrop value estimate: 💰 On average, each eligible user may receive $ 510-640, but due to the influence of large holders, the median may be significantly lower than the average. With a maximum allocation of $ 4.55 billion from the 6.5% of $ 7 billion FDV, each eligible Starknet user could average $ 4.55 million/$ 890,000 to $ 4.55 million/$ 710,000, i.e., $ 510-640.If STRK is issued at a $ 7 billion FDV and 6.5% of the 9% community supply is allocated to Starknet users, the median for eligible users would be $ 340-430 per person.Considering a slightly optimistic scenario, issuing at a $ 10 billion FDV, and allocating 7.5% of the total supply to Starknet users, the median for the airdrop would be between $ 560-700, which is still not very promising. Airdrop standard adjustments: Due to potential multipliers for v11 users and rewards from the 9% community supply for ETH developers, the airdrop amount may be lower.
Recently, whether it's ordi or atom, eths or ethi, there is a trend of rapid development in the inscription ecology, indicating the power of the early stages of the cycle. At times like these, stability is crucial, considering that cycles are not short-term events. Primary narrative candidates for the new cycle: -L2 -Web3 games -BTC inscription ecology -Ethereum inscription ecology -AI -PerpDEX -LSD -Meme -Web3 infrastructure (computing, storage, network) -Web3 social -media -RWA Questions: Which areas will be chosen as the main leaders? Which projects in these areas will eventually emerge as the frontrunners? Will there be new fields emerging?
Decentralized social protocols are poised to revolutionize the user experience of digital interaction. Under the drive of web3, the accelerating adoption of public-private key pairs as proactive measures against AI-generated content will promote a broader understanding and familiarity with identity primitives in this context, while the continued censorship and data capture by web2 social media companies will openly drive more users to other places. We expect the adoption curve of these protocols to accelerate. To foster the development of new applications, protocol developers and open source contributors urgently need to move beyond the basic data types and relational objects currently used at the infrastructure layer. Although existing primitives adequately encapsulate the functionality of traditional web2 social media, there is still enormous potential for extension and innovation. Most of the protocols discussed here inherently support scalability within the system, providing a solid foundation for future development and open source contributions. However, it is critical to emphasize the importance of interoperability. Although front-end developers can independently enhance functionality, doing so may reduce the overall efficiency of the system if those enhancements cannot interoperate with other applications built on the same underlying protocols. Ensuring compatibility and seamless integration between various applications is essential for the long-term success and adoption of decentralized social protocols. In the area of data storage, the consensus that is gradually forming in web3 social protocols tends to be a hybrid approach. Given the vast amount of social content and engagement, it is pragmatic to allocate high-value assets (such as identity and core content) to on-chain primitives, while delegating low-risk content (such as likes and reactions) to off-chain solutions. This balanced approach not only preserves the integrity and security of critical data, but also provides a user experience that is reminiscent of traditional social media platforms. Decentralized networks have the potential to transform interpersonal communication, information sharing, and community building. By prioritizing user autonomy, privacy, and the cultivation of organic relationships, these networks are paving the way for a more equitable and user-centric digital environment. Additionally, the decentralized nature of these networks helps to democratize access to information and resources, mitigating the risks associated with centralized control.
"Full-chain DEX is the future of Web3, while CEX regulation is the future of CeFi.
In the early autumn of 2017, Changpeng set foot in the sea of cryptocurrencies. Ranked 22 on Coinmarket, the team comprised just over seventy. In June, a storm of change emerged, capturing the leading position. Over six years, transformations unfolded, yet Binance's majestic presence remains unaltered, still the unrivaled sovereign.
Combining the recent news about Binance and CZ, there's been intense discussion online. However, a perspective that I find noteworthy and contemplative is the transformation and gains and losses following Binance's $ 4.3 billion fine. This transformation has resulted in CZ gaining a more liberated status, advancing towards increased compliance, engaging with traditional Wall Street capital, and transitioning from tokenization to IPO (initial public offering). Looking ahead, with traditional capital entering this space, infrastructure and middleware are likely to shift towards corporatization and IPO. Tokenization may primarily apply to products on the application side. In other words, a company can have multiple products, each corresponding to its own token. This presents an intriguing perspective for the future.
OpenAI is nothing without its PEOPLE。——e/acc
👽From #Ordi, #sats, and #eths,#facet, it's evident that on-chain tokens and NFTs are crucial. This might be the correct path for the next bull market's outstanding assets.
A WEB3 investor, before the bull market arrives, has chosen to exit the crypto space. His farewell letter is still full of valuable insights, and I'd like to share it here: - I have already positioned myself and accumulated the chips I need, and I won't sell until the total crypto market cap reaches $5 trillion, taking us to $10 trillion. (Note: The current crypto market cap is $1.3 trillion). - After the next bull market, I will only hold two tokens, $ATOR and $USDT (from the positions I've sold). (Note: Great minds think alike, very bullish on $ATOR!) - During the next bear market, I will gradually accumulate $BTC and $ETH because they have high liquidity in both bull and bear markets. - I won't venture into blockchain gambling with the money I've earned. Those tokens played a role in my journey to financial freedom, but their time will soon be over. - Regulation is coming, institutions are getting involved, and Wall Street is entering the scene. Cryptocurrencies will go mainstream, and adoption will grow exponentially. (Note: Waiting for the explosive rise of WEB3, although it will take some time). - After the next bull market, cryptocurrencies will be very different from now. It all starts with SBF's judgment in the next couple of days. Then, various catalysts will follow. - In my view, the next bull market will be the last "massive" one. While there will be more bull markets to come, none will compare in scale to the upcoming one. - Unless you're already successful and have an eight-figure net worth, refrain from buying #Eth or #BTC right now. Invest in high-quality altcoins; they will help you accumulate wealth, allowing you to buy $BTC and $ETH with the USDT you've earned during the next bear market. - Keep a long-term perspective, and patience will pay off. It has brought me extraordinary returns, and if you make wise and steady choices, you'll reap huge rewards as well. - Move your assets offline, store them in cold storage/hardware wallets. Don't click on links or respond to unknown messages on Twitter/Telegram, and don't associate your non-custodial wallet with unverified links. GOOD LUCK!
Elon Musk tells Joe Rogan: “The degree to which Twitter was simply an arm of the government was not well understood by the public. It was a state publication. Republicans were suppressed at ten times the rate of Democrats.”
Since the beginning of this year, I have closely worked with at least 5-10 startup companies that have shifted their focus away from cryptocurrency-related activities. Such transitions are quite normal for startups, and most of these companies have reasonable explanations for making the shift. For instance: - They weren't experiencing growth, nor did they have a vision for it. - They lost their enthusiasm for what they were doing. However, I'd like to particularly discuss the idea of transitioning away from cryptocurrencies. I believe almost everyone has contemplated this, especially if this is your first experience with a bear market. Honestly, every time a founder gives up on cryptocurrency, it disappoints me somewhat. However, if the transition is indeed justified, I wish them good luck and, if possible, hope to continue being part of their next journey. When making such a decision, though, there are certain factors to consider. The key is not to dissuade you from leaving cryptocurrencies but to take these considerations into account during your decision-making process. **Bear Market Sentiments** The latter half of the second year in a bear market is usually when market sentiment reaches its lowest point. I've talked about this issue several times in my past tweets and podcasts because I've witnessed this phenomenon not just once, but twice. I'm not certain why it always turns out this way, why the cryptocurrency cycles always seem to last for four years. Perhaps accepting reality psychologically takes 1-2 years, or maybe it takes people four years to forget the prosperity and downturn from the previous cycle, as well as the lessons learned from that last cycle. In any case, this cyclical emotional pattern is now so predictable that I critically evaluate whether there's genuine substance behind my lack of faith or if it's merely driven by emotions. I do my best to ensure that emotions don't sway my decisions. **Minimizing Regret** Everyone I know who left cryptocurrencies after the last bear market regrets it. Every person who tried to convince them to leave cryptocurrencies during the previous bear market became a laughingstock when they returned during the bull market. I've discussed this issue before. Now, this time might indeed be different, and nobody knows. However, I aim to minimize the risk of regret. One way to do that is to set a deadline for yourself and try every good idea in cryptocurrencies before transitioning to something else. "At least I gave it a shot." **Nonlinear Growth** Many founders, especially those coming from FAANG, Y Combinator, or the traditional startup world, left cryptocurrencies because they expected the growth trajectory typical of Web2. In reality, the growth trajectory for cryptocurrency products is rarely linear. Most products experience stepwise growth. This is particularly true for more "native" cryptocurrency products and is largely due to the cyclical nature of the overall market. Now, you might say, "I don't want to depend on an external factor I can't control, that is, the overall growth of cryptocurrencies." This is certainly a valid viewpoint. However, the counterargument is that historically, every successful cryptocurrency company has had to take on this risk. Each of them had an unwavering vision for the future of cryptocurrencies. If Coinbase had given up on cryptocurrencies because they didn't achieve 5% WoW growth, they would never have reached where they are today. **Discovering Secrets** Part of building a startup is finding secrets that others don't know. In cryptocurrency, I've found that it typically takes at least 1-2 years for new entrants to "discover that secret." Why does it take so long? Well, I guess it's because cryptocurrencies are so counterintuitive and drastically different from Web2 or TradFi (where most founders come from). Too many founders leave cryptocurrencies within less than 1-2 years, just before that crucial moment. What's worse, the bear market might be the perfect time to find that secret. Bubbles and distractions are reduced. Founders can think more clearly. They're more likely to find users who will stay for the long haul. **Unfair Advantages** Conversely, to succeed in a new industry, founders must know a secret that others don't. So, before pursuing something shiny and new, you have to ask yourself a crucial question: "Do I have an advantage in this new industry?" If the answer is negative, then it's probably best to stick with cryptocurrencies, because after 1-2 years, you've already gained a wealth of knowledge in this field. You now understand why cryptocurrencies are so important. You've built a strong network, and you engage with users on a daily basis.
After recently finishing the entire book "Elon Musk: Tesla, SpaceX, and the Quest for a Fantastic Future," my biggest takeaway is that both Tesla and SpaceX started off as scrappy startups, and Elon Musk was the chief visionary of these endeavors. When SpaceX encountered problems, Musk would fire executives and take their place. He also had bold ideas, like suggesting, "Why not try stainless steel?" when he felt that traditional aerospace materials like carbon fiber were too expensive, and it turned out to work quite well. On the eve of one rocket launch, the SpaceX team discovered two small cracks in the skirt of the second-stage rocket during a final inspection. Everyone at NASA believed the launch would be delayed by several weeks because the usual procedure was to replace the entire engine in such cases. Musk had another ingenious idea: "What if we just cut off the cracked part of the skirt?" The rocket successfully launched the next day as planned. In terms of management, Musk has a "think outside the box" approach. Whenever Tesla faced issues, he would pull talent from SpaceX. After acquiring Twitter, he promptly laid off 80% of the staff. He also recruited dozens of employees from SpaceX and Tesla to work at Twitter. Even for a world-class company valued at $440 billion, Twitter's situation reveals that it's not an exception. "Looking polished on the outside while being just functional on the inside" might be the norm for many companies.
👁️‍🗨️👁️‍🗨️👁️‍🗨️
By the way, my beloved father, due to a stroke, I haven't been working for a week, as I've been in the hospital taking care of him. The good news is that he is now standing up again, attempting to walk. I consider this a great achievement.🌞🌞🌞
When we talk about RWA, we focus more on underlying assets such as US Treasuries, fixed income, and securities. In reality, apart from stablecoins, the largest RWA project by asset size is the money market funds. The top three projects in terms of asset size are Franklin Templeton with $3.12 billion (government bonds), followed by Centrifuge at $2.47 billion (asset-backed), and Ondo Finance at null.83 billion (government bonds).
The performance of cryptocurrencies in recent days has been strong, and I believe there are two reasons for this. First, there is an escalating trend in the conflict between Israel and Hamas. Currently, Israel has deployed a significant number of troops along the Gaza border, indicating a potential escalation to ground warfare. This has positioned cryptocurrencies as a safe-haven asset following gold. Second, there is a growing interest in concepts related to RWA (Real-World Assets). This performance may be a short-term event, where cryptocurrencies serve as just another form of safe-haven asset after gold. If that's the case, it might lead to a minor bull market. However, if cryptocurrency prices decline after the war is declared over, it could signal the end of the war. If cryptocurrency assets remain strong even after the war's end, it could indicate the beginning of a bull market recovery period.
Everyone is going crazy about $FLC, so let me talk about it from a financial perspective. In conclusion, I think this is the final step in the demise of most NFTs. Actually, ever since $Blur started, these so-called innovations have been transferred from traditional financial markets. Blur provides liquidity and lending for NFTs, allowing NFT holders to enter and exit the market at any time. In essence, it turns NFTs (Non-fungible tokens) into Fungible tokens, forcefully changing ERC721 into ERC20 for speculation. This is the first step in securitizing NFTs, resulting in the destruction of the cultural value of NFTs. 10,000 unique NFTs have become 10,000 tokens used solely for trading. Now, this @flooringproto takes it a step further, completely securitizing NFTs. Only a few projects like BAYC and Azuki have a small number of tokens, and they can't accommodate many buyers. I'm breaking down each NFT into smaller units, so each NFT can have a million pieces. Each NFT becomes its own project with a lower entry price, allowing more buyers to participate. This further destroys the cultural uniqueness of NFTs, completing their securitization. The effect of this move is similar to the stock market's "stock split."
BitVM has brought forth an imagination much like EVM and is likely to become the summer of the next bull market. After the Bitcoin halving cycle, miners have more ways to profit, and it will be a driving force, opening up the entire ecosystem of Bitcoin.
I have some agreement and reservations regarding Alex Svanevik, CEO of the crypto analytics company Nansen, sharing his thoughts on six crypto tracks on social media platform X. 1. Traditional Finance and Crypto Integration: I agree, but I believe it's more of a trial in specific assets like BTC/ETH, and adding assets like SOL, which are currently popular among investors, is not a universal phenomenon. 2. Disruption of Gambling by DeFi: I'm cautious. I think gambling is a fundamental part of human nature and will coexist with human life. Its existence won't be overturned just because DeFi has emerged. 3. RWA and Stablecoins: I agree, and there's a focus on the underlying infrastructure's RIO as a potential target. 4. Web3 Games: I agree, but I believe the mainstream will still follow the Play-to-Earn (P2E) model. 5. SocialFi: It's possible. The emergence of FTs represents the beginning of a new approach, so I think it's possible, but it will be more like Social+Fi rather than purely Social. 6. The Gradual Popularization of Physical NFTs: I agree. This can be understood as an application phenomenon rather than a value NFTization or value storage.
🔔At the moment of a severe test, learning to pause and reflect is of utmost importance. In an internal sharing session at Sequoia Capital USA, a warning was issued that the challenging times have arrived: Over the past period, the most significant change has been the shift from 'cheap' to 'expensive' capital. What used to be the best-performing assets have now become the worst-performing ones. In simple terms, the world is reevaluating what business models hold value when capital becomes expensive. As we face this challenging moment, it's crucial to learn the art of pausing and contemplating. Those who excel at adapting to change will survive. Relentless growth at any cost will no longer be rewarded; the era of unrestrained growth for returns has passed. This recovery won't be a V-shaped rebound but rather a long-term process of healing.
Why do regular people always end up as bagholders when dealing with shitcoins (poorly performing cryptocurrencies)? That's because most shitcoins follow the "Four-tier Pangzi Model": Project Team -> Key Opinion Leaders (KOLs) -> Early Holders -> Bagholders. 1. **Project Team Profit**: Typically, they benefit from insider trading or hefty taxes on token transfers. Their cost of acquiring tokens is essentially zero. 2. **KOL Profit**: KOLs often receive airdropped tokens or can mint tokens for free. Some projects share royalties with them. Their cost of acquiring tokens is usually zero or a small amount of gas fees. *(Note: Some KOLs are also part of the project team but promote the project as KOLs to the public.)* 3. **Early Holder Profit**: They buy tokens at the start (or during a free mint) and sell them at a profit when the price goes up. Their cost of acquiring tokens is extremely low. 4. **Bagholder Profit**: Negative – most often, they end up as bagholders. The lifecycle of shitcoins can vary from 10 minutes to several months, or even just 5 minutes. The market cap and price changes of these coins mainly depend on the combined strength of the project team and KOLs. This includes factors like the team's development capabilities, marketing prowess, whether they can manipulate the price through funding, the influence and engagement of KOLs, and more. As a bagholder, if you want to play in the shitcoin market, you will usually end up losing money or going to zero if you buy on a centralized exchange (CEX). This is a common scenario for many "degen" traders who work hard to make money elsewhere and then impulsively "spend" it on shitcoins. It's not a matter of not knowing when to buy or sell; it's determined by the underlying logic of shitcoins because no one knows when the bubble will burst. Once you understand that the shitcoin market operates on the Pangzi Model, and if you still want to participate and enjoy the thrill of potentially making thousands or even millions, the only way is to become a KOL or an early holder. This way, you'll get early access to project information and invest before the general public. The key to investing early is having a wide range of information sources and the speed to act on that information. Here are three methods to help you obtain information quickly and broadly, as suggested by "Wukong" after years of practice: 1. **Regularly Collect Addresses with High Success Rates for Shitcoin Launches and Set Up Email Alerts**: Follow and monitor a large number of addresses that have historically been successful in shitcoin launches. Filter them based on your preferred trading style. For instance, Wukong monitored over 300 whale addresses. 2. **Use Tools and Scripts to Monitor Twitter Sentiment and On-Chain Activities**: This approach is suitable for more technical traders. Utilize various tools or scripts to monitor Twitter sentiment or on-chain activities. 3. **Build Relationships with Experienced Shitcoin Traders**: Networking in the web3 space is the most effective way. Recommendations from friends are always the most reliable method. Remember that investing in shitcoins is highly speculative and risky, and it's important to do your own research and be cautious when participating in such markets.
A design concept for FOCG (Fully On-Chain Games): Let's start with what it won't be: 1. It won't have flashy graphics or require intensive real-time processing. 2. It won't fit the typical Web2 game model; it's fundamentally different from current Web2 games. Here's what it might look like: 1. It will revolve around games of strategy and human psychology, similar to scenarios like the Prisoner's Dilemma. 2. It should create a strong FOMO (Fear of Missing Out) not only for participants but also for spectators. 3. It will require a completely neutral and trustable mechanism, achieved through smart contracts and fully on-chain randomization, ensuring transparency and fairness, with no hidden agendas. 4. It will have an extremely low entry barrier, allowing players and viewers, even those unfamiliar with blockchain technology, to participate.
"Reading Proficiency Is Actually a Dimensional Reduction" First is interest. During elementary school, I would read under my blanket with a flashlight and spend hours in a small grove, engrossed in books until it was dark outside. I'd pay no attention to my mother's calls; it was a daily routine. As I grew up, behind the scenes of the investment channel, I'd happily dedicate several hours each day, thoroughly enjoying it. Some people read "Steve Jobs: A Biography" with unwavering fascination, while others can't even finish the first chapter after twenty attempts. Second is diversity. Being a good reader doesn't require deep understanding; it's okay to read what you love. Third is independent thinking. As one's reading level improves, more and more knowledge becomes outdated, incorrect, or even foolish. We can't have a bookish mindset, thinking that all books are good and others' viewpoints are always correct. Instead, let's assume that every book has its biases and limitations. The solution is to read more and explore your own truths. Here's an example: In the past two years, when I was learning about trading, my goal was to become a "top trader" and find the Holy Grail that would help me make big profits. After all, among those classic texts that have been passed down for centuries, there are countless myths and success stories. So, I first assumed that they were all true. Then, combining it with my learning abilities, I reasonably deduced that if I studied hard enough, I could become a top trader. I had enough confidence in my learning abilities. However, after studying everything, all those theories, it's highly likely that they were coincidences after survivorship bias. Luck played a significant role in trading. A good investment system should be one where you don't need extraordinary talent or luck to make money steadily over the long term. Fourth is not to be too fixated on methods. Good methods exist, and learning from them is valuable. For instance, sharing this post has value. However, it's worth noting that, just like independent thinking, you must eventually find the methods that suit you best. It should be the most comfortable way for you—similar to investing. There's an old saying, "A poor student blames his tools," and "the more monitors you have, the faster you'll lose money." When a student focuses on objective conditions like picking teachers, classmates, desk mates, dormitories, or the quality of pens and ink, the importance of actual learning might not be as high as perceived. Methods exist, but the process of finding the right method requires a lot of "trial and error." This is similar to entrepreneurship; sometimes, you need to act first and think later. Overthinking can lead to doing less. So, the best methods are probably discovered naturally on the foundation of a love for reading, after extensive reading. It should happen organically.
There are qualities that are important but cannot be learned from books. These personal qualities are rarely discussed, and I'll mention three of them: Expectation Management in Interpersonal Relationships In movies and TV shows, we often see characters who are troublemakers or villains, causing all sorts of mischief. However, towards the end of the story, they suddenly turn over a new leaf and do something heroic. For example, in "Da Zhai Men," there's a character known as "San Ye," who starts doing good deeds despite his previous misdeeds. At this point, the audience's perception of him suddenly improves, even surpassing many one-dimensional positive characters. All his earlier wrongdoings are quickly forgiven. This phenomenon is the result of expectations being intentionally lowered by the storytellers earlier in the narrative. When we enter a new team or environment, if we start by giving our best performance from day one, people's expectations of us will keep increasing. Eventually, there will be a time when you can't meet those heightened expectations, leading to negative evaluations, possibly even worse than those of colleagues who consistently perform averagely. This is known as the "incompetence trap." In an upward trajectory, as long as you meet or exceed the expectations of the higher-ups, you'll continue to be promoted until you reach a position you can't handle, disappointing everyone, and this cycle will end. This phenomenon applies to personal relationships as well. You'll notice that a person who makes a dramatic turnaround often receives praise. Many people, especially women, may overlook a person's past if they see a significant positive change in their behavior. However, an honest and dependable "nice guy" who slips up even once is immediately labeled a "bad guy" and rarely gets a second chance. There have been many examples of this in the entertainment industry in recent years, making the point clear. Managing others' expectations of us is crucial. One common tactic is to hold back and not reveal your full capabilities, especially things that go beyond others' expectations. However, people are not naive; if you consistently hold back unique abilities, they will start to believe you are hiding something. To effectively control others' expectations, you must do so without leaving any trace, suppressing your desire to show off or seek recognition unnecessarily. I believe this is the first lesson when entering the professional world. Threshold Self-Control Awareness Threshold, or critical point, refers to the minimum stimulus intensity required to trigger a behavioral response. I wrote an article online about six or seven years ago that many people might have already read. Here's an excerpt from it: "Adult films have harmed countless young men. In the absence of adult films, young boys are filled with impure thoughts. But in today's world of rampant online pornography, they can't even think of women in real life. This could be considered a classic example of human alienation in the information age. Why did this happen? It's all about the threshold. Constant and sustained stimulation has raised men's trigger points for desire. In the past, seeing a glimpse of a woman's thigh when she sat down in a traditional qipao was enough to arouse men's desires. However, 100 years later, after watching explicit sexual acts on a screen, many people say, 'It's not exciting.' This is a reflection of changing times, where the rising threshold keeps individuals from being easily excited. Those who have grown up in this age of constant stimulation have naturally higher thresholds. As a result, simple, everyday experiences may not trigger them. Understanding the law of diminishing marginal utility and practicing a degree of abstinence and self-control is the key to preventing an increase in the threshold. This is a quality and awareness that should be cultivated and developed from an early age, especially for men." Furthermore, excessive exposure to pornography can inhibit the brain's reward system's response to sexual stimuli, similar to drug addiction. This neural inhibition can lead to compulsive sexual behavior and affect normal sexual desire and motivation. Unfortunately, for some individuals, this realization may come too late. Ability to Cope with Subjective Time-Space Distortion This concept might sound a bit abstract. Subjective time-space distortion refers to the feeling that time passes more quickly as we age, and it seems to accelerate uncontrollably. I believe most people have experienced this phenomenon - the older we get, the faster time seems to pass. When we were children, a month felt like an eternity, but as adults, we blink, and a month has gone by. Ask your parents; they'll tell you that ten years go by in the blink of an eye, discussing events from a decade or two ago as if they happened yesterday. I started researching methods to counteract this time-space distortion early on. Here's a theory I found intriguing: "When you're five years old, your memory covers the past five years. So when you turn six, your memory increases by one-fifth. From six to seven, it increases by one-sixth. From seven to eight, it's only one-seventh. This pattern continues, and by the time you're twenty, each additional year increases your memory by only one-twentieth. Although the actual amount of time remains the same, your frame of reference has changed. Thus, you feel that time passes more quickly. Maybe when you're sixty, each year's memories only increase your memory by one-sixtieth, making time pass even more quickly. This concept explains why time appears to accelerate." If you deeply understand the impact of threshold on personal happiness and joy, you'll realize that this concept isn't limited to sex and love; it can be applied to various aspects of life. Understanding the law of diminishing marginal utility and practicing a degree of abstinence and self-control is key to preventing an increase in the threshold. This is a quality and awareness that should be cultivated and developed from an early age, especially for men. Lastly, frequent exposure to explicit content can lead to overstimulation, inhibiting the brain's reward system's response to sexual stimuli, similar to drug addiction. This neural inhibition can lead to compulsive sexual behavior and affect normal sexual desire and motivation. Unfortunately, for some individuals, this realization may come too late. Ability to Cope with Subjective Time-Space Distortion This concept might sound a bit abstract. Subjective time-space distortion refers to the feeling that time passes more quickly as we age, and it seems to accelerate uncontrollably. I believe most people have experienced this phenomenon - the older we get, the faster time seems to pass. When we were children, a month felt like an eternity, but as adults, we blink, and a month has gone by. Ask your parents; they'll tell you that ten years go by in the blink of an eye, discussing events from a decade or two ago as if they happened yesterday. I started researching methods to counteract this time-space distortion early on. Here's a theory I found intriguing: "When you're five years old, your memory covers the past five years. So when you turn six, your memory increases by one-fifth. From six to seven, it increases by one-sixth. From seven to eight, it's only one-seventh. This pattern continues, and by the time you're twenty, each additional year increases your memory by only one-twentieth.