Harry Ho (@godofwealth) • Hey
You have to be young and dumb before you become old and wise.
Early $BONSAI supporters!
Publications
- Happy Mother’s Day to all the moms out there!
- The market is yet again exposing the weaklings who pretend to be mentally strong on sunny days but crumble during times of darkness and uncertainty rather than capitalizing from it. Not us. Not ever.
- BTC dipped 15% and most retail investors already rage quit.
Fascinating behaviour.
- The plan for the month of May:
\- #BTCUSD shakeout below 60k
-liquidity grab
-fast V reversal , big short liquidation
-Ethbtc and Eth start the run
-BTC D showing pico top
- should have point from early day!
- I just voted "80 badges" on "EtherScore Reputation Tiers - Diamond Tier" https://snapshot.org/#/etherscoredao.eth/proposal/0x49e77aefc977ee840f623137da1a88251e5a4b81fe80a569244961398aa9e5b9 #SnapshotVote
- 🙀🪴 This cat is making a classic GIVEWAY with $BONSAI!
I will do it manually and, as a classic giveaway, you need to do these things to participate:
☛ Follow @zurfsocial
☛ Comment your address, where you want your 5k $bonsai!
☛ Mirror and Like this post (Quote counts)
⚠️ Closing at 30th Mar 11:59PM (GMT-5).
That's it, let's go! 🥳
- $USD Monthly
A wick over the top of the channel, or even to the yellow line is fine.
A monthlybody close over either = Volatility in Risk
- Bitcoin Bulls challenge now is to climb over the small red line. 🧗♀️
It represents the ETF Wick high & coincides w/the .618 Fib.
Bulls also need to break the downslope resistance on the RSI.
Note how the 2nd $ 48K top has coincided resistance.
- Maybe it’s time for $Alts to go. Let’s hope so… I’d like to get this “show on the road” before the $SPX decides to crap the bed. $TOTAL2 Monthly MACD is the focus.
- BREAKING: #BITCOIN reclaims the $ 44,000 Level. #BTC is poised to achieve the highest weekly candle close of the cycle thus far.
- If $BTC breaks it, we head to $ 57K in short order. If we fail, look to the 200SMA as your next move (small red line).
Back to work for this guy.
Appreciate you, love you, and I’m here to help. That’s all.
- BREAKING:
China places new trading restrictions on domestic and foreign investors as the CSI 1000 index hits a 30% loss YTD. New restrictions include:
1. Limiting investors' ability to short Hong Kong stocks
2. Some investors told that they are not allowed to sell their positions
3. Some quant funds are completely banned from placing sell orders
4. Other quants funds banned from cutting leveraged positions China's market has officially lost $ 7 TRILLION in value over the last 3 years.
Is China in a recession?
- Regardless of what the Bulls suggest, we have yet to backtest the original point of breakout from our prior Bull impulse that sent us to the top of our price channel.
As for my own opinion: until we get a daily close OVER $ 45.1K, I remain suspicious of any bounces. As for $Alts, the story remains.
- Crypto narratives change quickly.
SocialFi hype soared in Aug-Sept, then faded away.
ETF hype hit its peak just two weeks ago.
Now, the dominant narratives are AI, ETF, GameFi, L2 & ZK.
- Price continues to waffle around the 50SMA, & it continues w/a lack of conviction to break over $ 45K even on a BIG UP DAY for stocks. Note the RSI channel as well.
- BREAKING:
#Bitcoin continues to maintain the same price levels since December, putting in yet another higher low, despite the growing bearish sentiment. Skeptics and bears continue to get it wrong.
#BTC The trend is your friend.
- Powell disappointed the markets today.
Why?
The markets didn’t like the “rate cut timeline”.
That said, I think The Fed will be forced to cut in March.
In the meantime, I think equity markets needed to “cool off” here, & this might be just the excuse it needs to do so.
That is all for now.
- Bullish!
Grayscale's BTC selling is on the decline.
Today, only around 6.2K BTC ($ 270M) were sent out of GBTC, which is a 28% decrease compared to yesterday.
- This is big!
The FED's Balance Sheet is getting ready to potentially expand again.
You can see when it contracts it does it orderly, not touching the red line, once it crosses it it prints ( BRRRRR)
It's about to cross it this week, we might be on the verge of quantitative tightening QT pausing, and about to QE
WALCL chart
- $BTC WEEKLY CLOSE ANALYSIS 🧐
- Price is now back inside of the weekly Keltner channel
- Histogram continues to print lower bars
- RSI still heading lower w/a true bear cross
- Bounce possible at 21SMA (middle line of KC)
- MACD not giving a bear cross as of yet.
Bulls have a shot, but $ 45K is the ceiling
- I’m out of $BTC, I still own many of my $Alts.
I’m gambling on the latter.
- $BTC Update (Daily)
Bounces notwithstanding, $BTC is heavy.
$ 32K remains my base case before anything truly constructive can happen.
Might take a while, might happen fast.
Time I can’t determine, but I can look at a chart and let you know that this isn’t bullish.
- $BTC Close = Bounce now “in play”
Candle closed over 100SMA
This is accompanied by a LTF 4-hour RSI bullish divergence. If you’re trading em’, these are decent set ups for a quick buck. Resistance level has already been given.
But, if you don’t want to search for it, it’s $ 43K (50 SMA)
- In spite of new ATH’s, Hedge funds are back to shorting again.
One could look at this two ways:
1) the bullish angle is it adds more fuel to the fire (short covering).
2) Or, the bearish angle is they see something the retail trader doesn’t.
One thing is for sure, they shorted into the 3rd quarter correction and covered into November. If you’ll remember the last rally from Oct-Dec was quite impressive.
Make of this what you will.
Source: Goldman Sachs
- As long as $ 40,181 and $ 40,600 are maintained, Bulls have a shot at a bounce. BUT!!! If they are lost, look to the $ 38K area for a better shot at a more meaningful bounce. My own thinking is that regardless of any near term bounce, the ultimate direction for $BTC is for a retest to the original point of breakout at a minimum.
- $OTHERS MONTHLY
While I’m not a “Fractal Guy”, I find the two cycles below very similar.
Both have similar tops, similar bottoms, & both had mid cycle rallies in between their respective Lows & HL’s (yellow arrows)
The prior cycle also had a MONTHLY correction before
- It’s all VERY correlated!
There is a reason we follow Fed reserves, Repo markets, & rates like a hawk on this feed.
Remember, the window of opportunity has been open, and is still open.
But it only lasts for a short while!
NASDAQ vs. Fed Reserves
Source: Refinitiv
- If this is your first run, or even if it's your second and you feel like panic selling...
Below is how many times BTC dumped 10% or more during the last bull run.
My advice. If you are feeling the panic, walk away from your charts.
- $SPX4682
4682 = Prior swing low
A loss of 4682 (green line) opens the door to a deeper correction to the 4400-4600 area (this coincides w/the 50/200SMA range).
Also of note is the ugly MACD (see) and the double top rejection after an ascending bearish triangle break.
- Late '22: Anger/Depression.
Early '23: Disbelief.
It's January 2024 and moonboys consensus claiming we're @ Disbelief stage. They're as well saying: "In the upcoming bull market!"...
It's been Up-only since early 2023, and whales are nowadays heavily shillin' their bags. We are much higher than "Disbelief"
- After major market events, sideways price action is often the likely outcome.
The human brain tends to think in extremes as a survival mechanism.
It's important to remember that market stability/sideways action is more common than the extremes.
- That’s a very bad looking Shooting Star weekly candle I should say
Source: on pic
- One last post,
I added to my $Alts today
So, take it for what it’s worth…
- Bitcoin Daily Chart | Trend Line
$ 42,000 is the Critical Zone.
The trend is still inBullish territory.
- keep an eyes on this!🙃
- I think market full sends here
- funding neutral
- all ETF leverage apes stopped out
- normies start fomoing tomorrow
- Are you prepare for this?
- #BITCOINDAILY RSI BREAKOUT
If #BTC repeated the RSI breakout
it would land us at $ 52,500
- $BTC.D Weekly
Three possibilities with the recent P.A reclaiming a long standing broken trend line
1) We are forming a H&S, and price fails at yellow line (54%).
2) Price double tops at prior wick high (55.26%), or
3) Dominance makes a run for a new swing high. The levels with a possible new swing high range from 56-60% (.5 to .618 Fib)
The last being most impactful for short term price action amongst the Alt space.
- According to the Halving Cycles Theory, new ATHs scheduled after November 28th, 2024
- $BTC Monthly
Break "The Wall", $BTC makes a new ATH.
Fail at "The Wall" & the $BTC Rally dies.
Its that simple!
-But be mindful of your oscillators
- What's your side you choose?
NFA but this is view from John Bollinger (BB band indicator)
- $BTC never dropped below the upper band on the Keltner Channel. As long as this is maintained, Bulls still have the upper hand.
- The $BTC price did close over the level to gain (red line). This, as volume was quite robust.
For the remainder of the week, I would still keep an eye on our “red line level”.
Still Long my $Alts
$BTC DAILY
- Bitcoin needs to reestablish $ 45K as a support.
The last thing Bulls want is a “wick” breach with no candle body close over that key level.
Tomorrow’s close will be key.
I’ll be watching. 👀
Next BIG resistance = $ 48.5K
- We have spot $BTC ETF's, a $BTC halving, a raging US stock market and a US Presidential election all coming right up in 2024 ... it's going to be crazy
- did:3:kjzl6cwe1jw14bgvf1fy8t3m44jk3ancq5eb0y223noaclvghufh0oorfmoa0l5
- "Money doesn't buy happiness" is said by everyone who never had any significant amount of money...
Money buys freedom. Freedom to do things that make us happier. Money can buy Time (in several indirect ways) which is our most precious asset. With time and a clear mind, you can work on reaching your mind's full potential
- Today we’ve had a 3rd tap of our trend line.
A break below it sends $BTC to its Daily 50SMA, and potentially lower. Keep your eyes on it.