Economist (@economist) • Hey

Committing snippets of big picture ideas to the blockchain.

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#1 Stani Kulechov on $Lens Airdrop, Aave’s new stable coin $GHO and becoming a Dad #1 Stani Kulechov @stani.lens on $LENS Airdrop @lensprotocol , Aave @aaveaave.lens new stable coin $GHO and becoming a Dad. Collect one of only 25 of this NFT podcast collectible here!: https://chriscomrie.com/1-stani-kulechov-AEga Stani Kulechov is an innovator in the Web3/ Crypto space and Founder of Aave Protocol and Lens Protocol. In this collectible podcast episode we touch on things such as: - What is Lens Protocol (the decentralized social graph and identity layer) - $LENS Airdrop - What is GHO, Aave's new stable coin - Stani's most degen purchase - Why he's excited about becoming a Dad - Rapid fire questions! (including how he takes his coffee and his hockey history) Subscribe on Spotify: https://spotifyanchor-web.app.link/e/4DFVTdpb4zb 0:36 What is Lens Protocol? 3:13 Why is ownership such an important aspect? 6:03 What will it take for web3 social to succeed and how would you know when it has succeeded? 9:11 What has surprised you about building Lens protocol? 15:18 What is the vision for the Lens ecosystem beyond social media, and what potential opportunities exist for developers interested in building apps on Lens? 19:00 Wen $LENS airdrop? 21:46 What is GHO and why do we need another stable coin? 24:01 Is Balaji correct about Bitcoin going to nullm 25:16 Rapid fire questions 26:35 Most underrated Lens creator? 27:41 How to define social capital? 29:34 Stani’s hockey history 30:54 Most degen purchases 31:30 One thing not many people know about you 32:21 Becoming a Dad
**When will Treasury be unable to pay US government bills in 2023?** Currently predicted date is somewhere between mid-May and the start of June: https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/jy1454 **Why does this matter to us?** 1. Historically, debt ceiling showdowns have not led to Treasury defaults, but they offer valuable insights for predicting financial market impacts, even when an agreement is reached in time. 2. The Treasury’s measures to delay default affect market liquidity, with these impacts typically lasting beyond the deal itself. 3. In the lead-up to debt ceiling deadlines, the Treasury’s cash balances tend to drop, and then spike once an agreement is reached, draining market liquidity . 4. The way in which the debt ceiling is raised has significant consequences. For example, the 2011 S&P 500 decline resulted from a political agreement that included larger-than-anticipated spending cuts and growth downgrades. 5. The uncertainty surrounding debt ceiling negotiations is more pronounced than in previous instances (Chart III), and it cannot be overlooked since even successfully avoiding default can trigger outcomes with far-reaching and unforeseen consequences. 6. The ongoing debt ceiling negotiations may prompt the Federal Reserve to resume bond purchases, which could potentially pump up asset prices, but long-term effects are uncertain. See “Operation Twist” on one of the included charts. 7. Debt ceiling negotiations are more than just raising the spending limit. They also involve the budget process, spending cuts, and potential growth of market sectors.
**118,308 Users** How does decentralised social media like @lensprotocol scale beyond this number? Bonsai - L3 data availability scaling layer will allow for just that. Bonsai, Optimistic L3, boosts throughput & cuts costs while preserving user sovereignty. Expanding #Lens to a global scale. In closed beta, over 3.4M NFTs were created with average monetizing profile earning ~$50. Lens enables programmable monetization and token-gated access. From the start, Lens leveraged Data Availability (DA) layers to reduce on-chain storage costs. Content links to off-chain storage like Arweave, a decentralized network with 100+ nodes. Blockchains ensure trust, but on-chain data storage is costly & EVMs have limited txs/block. @0xpolygon.lens PoS has 2-sec blocks, but still faces latency & gas limit challenges. High-demand social experiences can reach 25k TPS. Scalability is crucial for Lens as a web3 social layer. Bonsai L3 overcomes blockspace limits, unlocking future growth. How? Bonsai, an Optimistic L3 solution, processes transactions off-chain for hyperscale & reduced costs: Bonsai keeps the core values of user ownership & control (creating data availability txs with proofs & info for cross-checking) while providing higher TPS, cost-effectiveness, and low latency, unattainable on EVM chains. Data stored on decentralized layers ensures user ownership & content control. The whole point being: even if part of Lens Ecosystem ceases to exist, data remains verifiable, accessible, and usable. Most exciting part? Bonsai L3 beta is live now!
**Slippery Situation: OPEC+'s Influence on Oil Prices Gets Murky** The recent OPEC+ decision to cut oil production has raised questions about its long-term impact on inflation and global economic growth. Although the move initially led to a 6% rally in Brent crude, market reactions suggest that traders and investors are growing increasingly skeptical about the influence of OPEC+ in the oil market. Higher oil prices, once considered favorable for stocks, are no longer perceived as such, with the relationship between oil and long-term inflation projections becoming more complex. In fact, the 10-year bond market breakevens and the oil price have been closely connected since the Global Financial Crisis (GFC). Interestingly, the recent OPEC+ announcement led to a 2.2 basis point drop in the 10-year breakeven rate, which now stands at 2.305%. This implies that the market remains convinced that inflation is under control. The market's response to OPEC+ action demonstrates a shift in perception, with traders doubting the ability of oil producers to sustain prices through supply limitations. Furthermore, the supply-driven spike in oil prices is different from a demand-driven one, with the former potentially leading to a downturn in growth. Analysts argue that the OPEC+ move is fundamentally defensive, responding to falling prices and revealing underlying bearish factors. This suggests that the group's role as a "price-responder" rather than a "price-maker" may be indicative of its waning influence in the oil market. In the context of an increasingly multipolar world, these insights underscore the complexity of global economic interactions and the challenges faced by nations in balancing fluctuating oil prices, growth, and inflation concerns.
**The Risk of a Commercial Real Estate Crisis: Banks' Solvency, Office Space Conundrum, and Economic Ripple Effects** The Commercial Real Estate (CRE) sector is under enormous pressure right now. If banks' solvency comes into question, the situation could take a turn for the worse, leading to a series of ripple effects on the broader economy. A key area of concern is commercial real estate lending, particularly by mid-sized banks, which have doubled their CRE lending since the global financial crisis. According to Chris Watling of Longview Economics, mid-sized banks ($10 billion to $250 billion in assets) have a null.3 trillion CRE loan book, while the largest banks ($250 billion+ in assets) have $738 billion. This means that the banks under the most pressure are also the most exposed. The pandemic has changed the way we work, with remote work and aversion to commuting becoming increasingly popular. As a result, the demand for office space is likely to decrease, leading to higher vacancy rates. This shift in office space usage is also evident in the stubbornly low subway traffic in cities like New York. For example, the Metropolitan Transportation Authority's subway traffic remains about a third below pre-pandemic levels. While this isn't yet a solvency crisis, the risk of it becoming one lies within the commercial property sector. As businesses continue to retrench and adapt to new working conditions, banks with significant exposure to CRE lending could face difficulties, potentially leading to a broader economic impact. Here are some of the potential consequences of a CRE crisis on the broader economy: - **Economic Slowdown Intensifies**: A CRE crisis can make the economic slowdown even worse. Remember the 2008 financial crisis? Property values tanked, people lost their jobs, and spending took a nosedive. - **More Financial Trouble for Banks**: When the CRE sector is in trouble, banks and financial institutions can feel the pain too. This could lead to a credit crunch and a deeper recession. - **Everybody Feels Less Wealthy**: When CRE values drop, businesses and investors feel less wealthy, which can lead to less confidence and investment. - **Governments Feel the Pinch**: A CRE crisis can hit government finances pretty hard, as seen during the 2008 financial crisis when governments around the world had to step in with stimulus measures and bailouts. - **Spillover Effects**: The CRE crisis can impact other parts of the economy too, leading to job losses and financial trouble across all sorts of industries. - **Tough Choices for Policymakers**: Central banks and policymakers can have a hard time dealing with a CRE crisis when they're also trying to fight inflation and rate hikes. In summary, the evolving work landscape and its effects on the CRE sector pose a significant risk to banks, particularly mid-sized banks with substantial exposure to commercial real estate lending. Policymakers and financial institutions must carefully monitor and address these risks to mitigate the potential consequences on the broader economy.
FED dot plot from March 23, 2023 Summary of Economic Projections did not signal a pivot away from further increasing the interest rates. Instead, there is a small trend towards more hawkish hikes in 2023. December projections (orange) overlaid for ease of comparison. https://lenster.xyz/posts/0xa4a7-0x26
According to the market, today's FOMC meeting has an about 80% chance of a 25bp hike. If FED surprises us with no hike or a cut, it could cause a serious mess in the markets and set up the stage for systemic damage down the line. This meeting is a big deal because it will determine if the recent FED liquidity injection - reversing close to half of the QT efforts of the last 12 months - was just a one-time thing or a real dovish pivot. Cryptocurrency and Gold rallied this week because of the sudden increase in liquidity in the markets, as well as emergency BTFP implicitly allowing banks to take on more risk in an inflationary regime. This sets a bad precedent for future crises where massive money printing could become the norm, and monetary policy levers become increasingly ineffective at protecting the economy. The FED dots are currently the biggest question mark and will likely drive the next move in the markets. - If they follow market pricing and start forecasting cuts, we can expect that equities and crypto will continue to rally. - But if FED ignores potential systemic issues to come and relies on their ability to separate monetary controls from liquidity issue, we may see a premature top for this risk asset rally tomorrow.
According to the market, today's FOMC meeting has an about 80% chance of a 25bp hike. If FED surprises us with no hike or a cut, it could cause a serious mess in the markets and set up the stage for systemic damage down the line. This meeting is a big deal because it will determine if the recent FED liquidity injection - reversing close to half of the QT efforts of the last 12 months - was just a one-time thing or a real dovish pivot. Cryptocurrency and Gold rallied this week because of the sudden increase in liquidity in the markets, as well as emergency BTFP implicitly allowing banks to take on more risk in an inflationary regime. This sets a bad precedent for future crises where massive money printing could become the norm, and monetary policy levers become increasingly ineffective at protecting the economy. The FED dots are currently the biggest question mark and will likely drive the next move in the markets. - If they follow market pricing and start forecasting cuts, we can expect that equities and crypto will continue to rally. - But if FED ignores potential systemic issues to come and relies on their ability to separate monetary controls from liquidity issue, we may see a premature top for this risk asset rally tomorrow.
According to the market, today's FOMC meeting has an about 80% chance of a 25bp hike. If FED surprises us with no hike or a cut, it could cause a serious mess in the markets and set up the stage for systemic damage down the line. This meeting is a big deal because it will determine if the recent FED liquidity injection - reversing close to half of the QT efforts of the last 12 months - was just a one-time thing or a real dovish pivot. Cryptocurrency and Gold rallied this week because of the sudden increase in liquidity in the markets, as well as emergency BTFP implicitly allowing banks to take on more risk in an inflationary regime. This sets a bad precedent for future crises where massive money printing could become the norm, and monetary policy levers become increasingly ineffective at protecting the economy. The FED dots are currently the biggest question mark and will likely drive the next move in the markets. - If they follow market pricing and start forecasting cuts, we can expect that equities and crypto will continue to rally. - But if FED ignores potential systemic issues to come and relies on their ability to separate monetary controls from liquidity issue, we may see a premature top for this risk asset rally tomorrow.
- The US Banks borrowed **$152.85 billion** from the discount window in the week ended March 15 - Up from $4.58 billion the previous week. - The prior all-time high was **$111 billion reached during the 2008 financial crisis.**
Great piece by **Nathan Tankus**, the Research Director of the Modern Money Network. https://www.crisesnotes.com/every-complex-banking-issue-all-at-once-the-failure-of-silicon-valley-bank-in-one-brief-summary-and-five-quick-implications/
It's clear that everyone on @lensprotocol is excited about @uniswap.lens being around 🙂 https://lenster.xyz/posts/0x01b94b-0x01
gm! is this thing on? 🎙️
What happened at **Block 16460695** @stani.lens ? 👀 https://etherscan.io/block/16460695
With less than 2 hours left till TDD 58750000000000000000000 ( #TheMerge ), over 80.5k depositors collectively staked 13.6k Ethereum on Beacon Chain - that's US$21B committed to securing the PoS consensus moving forward. Here's what will change for Ethereum after the Merge 💡: - Ethereum will run on a Proof of Stake consensus instead of Proof of Work. - Network electricity consumption will decrease by 99.95%. - ETH token inflation rate will be 90% lower. - Retiring miners means no more US$21M daily sell pressure from block rewards - PoW miners usually operate at an equilibrium and need to sell their earnings to pay for operations. - Centralisation concerns will shift from regulatory pressure on miners located in easy-to-identify physical locations to regulating concentrated validators staked through registered financial institutions.
Hey @stani.lens I've purchased lensofficial.lens and sent it to your address. Please use it well. Shame to let it go to waste by being squatted on. Hash: 0x1f278338e2f68f7c9dacdcd28302b0edd9f61698f16f8a82e236bc875ac3ccb7
Everything went down for the first time in 2 years. Everything.
This is a great response to a recent trend of platforms allowing avoiding paying royalties to creators. Instead of saying "everyone is doing it, so we should too," Magic Eden takes a stance. "MetaShield identifies NFTs listed/traded on marketplaces that bypass creator royalties. Creators can “shield” or take actions as they see fit like updating metadata, flagging the NFT, or blurring the image. When an NFT that bypassed royalties is bought, it incurs a debt for the unpaid royalty that can be paid to “unshield” it. Shielding is not meant to punish buyers. It warns a potential buyer that they’re not honoring the creator royalty." https://help.magiceden.io/en/articles/6529421-how-do-i-repay-royalty-debts
If you liked worrying about OFAC, sanctions and censorship. You’re gonna love a centralised custodian pitching a key DeFi protocol to deposit a third (null.6B) of its *stability* reserve (PSM) into an off-chain service subject to U.S. jurisdiction. https://forum.makerdao.com/t/mipxx-coinbase-usdc-institutional-rewards/17703
henlo frens 👋 🥁🥁🥁 Optimistic posting is live on @lenster.lens Means you don't need to wait till the blockchain transaction get indexed 💨, your post will be added to your timeline instantly 📜 Optimistic commenting support coming soon™️
While PoW could in theory be more censorship resilient... I'm really looking forward to seeing pictures of U.S. Senators inspecting PoS nodes in thousands of households.
It's disheartening to see how we speed-ran the inevitable market dynamics leading to the "big guy" dealer stiffing creators on fair share of secondary sale revenues. NFTs were meant to solve this.
Maximum value extraction at NFT mint is like burnt espresso ☕️ It does not lead to optimal outcome for any project.
EthPaw : the original Proof of Woof Ethereum chain Hear me out 🧵 (1/🐾)
EIP-4844 Proto-Danksharding will be the trigger for a Rollup Season.
@ricklatona.lens the fear of not being able to delete a post is real. Although, may have some benefits to it.
Midjourney. Sign me up.
On dealing with widespread hacks: Advising people to disconnect sites in a browser wallet is as effective as suggesting that closing Amazon in your browser will prevent a thief from using the credit card they stole from you.
Proof of an Idea (for once I get around to writing it fully down): EM debt issues are a catalyst for new monetary models being adopted faster. There will be a race by central banks to buy up BTC to bolster their reserves with something that's less reliant on current monetary dependencies. This leads into nations owning more mining operations as means of protecting against other regions controlling the network. New form of deterrence arms race.
Bankrupt CeFi companies are paying off DeFi lenders such as @aaveaave.lens & @makerdao.lens first. The product-market fit for decentralised, personality-agnostic financial protocols has never been demonstrated clearer. Reliability in spite of current macro situation is a killer feature.
First post.