Duke Lukem (@dukelukem) • Hey
Here for the memes.
Publications
- Gm Zerion fam🫡
- Temperature Check/ Fever 💿 OUT NOW!
STREAM MY ALBUM "FEVER" ON ALL PLATFORMS! Link below!
https://feverszn.com/
- First meme built on @memester-xyz.lens
- 🚨LIVESTREAM🚨
ETH Staking Withdrawals are HERE 🔥
We're joined by:
- Justin Drake
- Anthony Sassano
What does this means for the market & what could it mean for you?? 🫵
Set a reminder to find out! ⏰
Show starts tomorrow (4/12) at 6am PT / 9am ET
👇👇
https://youtube.com/live/3yqTdZpBGF8
- Ray Dalio "Changing World Order" vibes from Lyn Alden in Will the dollar lose to China? by @bankless.lens #Lenstube
https://lenstube.xyz/watch/0x8b61-0xeb
- $ARB PRICE SCENARIOS 🦅🔵
Investor price* → Market Cap 85M - ARB $0.07
Pessimistic → Market Cap 360M - ARB $0.30
Moderate → Market Cap 780M - ARB $0.65
Optimistic → Market Cap 1.4B - ARB null.20
Ecstatic 🎉 → Market Cap 3.0B - ARB $2.50
@Arbitrum Thread 🧵 - Let's estimate 🧠
$ARB is launching in 6 days
Snapshot Date: Feb 6th 2023
Many active DeFi got this airdrop (12% of the total supply)
How much could $ARB be worth a few days after launch?
1/18
Arbitrum One is the biggest Ethereum Layer2 blockchain in the space, by TVL and market share
• Market share: 55%
• TVL: $3.7B
2/18
Today we will roughly try to estimate $ARB price valuation a few days after launch - after the dust settles. By using:
• Total & initial circulating supply
• Market Benchmarks
• Percentage airdropped
3/18
TOKENOMICS
• Team & Advisors: 26.94%
• Investors: 17.53%
• Treasury: 42.78%
• Airdrop to users: 11.62%
• Airdrop to Arbitrum DAOs: 1.13%
4/18
TOKEN SUPPLY
• Total supply: 10B tokens (10,000,000,000)
• Circulating supply on 1st day: roughly 1.2B (1,200,000,000)
~12% of total supply
User airdrop is immediately unlocked. It's safe to assume that Airdrop to Arbitrum DAOs will not enter the market right away
5/18
AIRDROP CRITERIA
• Conducting transactions during 2-9 distinct months
• Transaction frequency & interaction (4-100)
• Arbitrum Nova activity: 3-10 transactions
• Bridging to Arbitrum & Arbitrum Nova
• Transaction value: $10k-$250k
• Providing liquidity: $10k-$250k
6/18
🔗 Check your eligibility here: arbitrum.foundation
🚨 Careful with scam links, always get your link from @Arbitrum twitter
Now, let's try to make scenarios for $ARB's price 👇
7/18
FDV AND MARKET CAP MEANING
• Fully Diluted Valuation (FDV) = total supply * token price
• Market cap = circulating supply * token price
With $ARB numbers:
FDV = 10B * token price
Market cap = 1.2B * token price
Token price = ❓
8/18
SPECULATING INVESTOR'S PRICE
According to Crunchbase, Offchain Labs raised 120M.
Investors are getting ~17% of the token supply, which is around 1.7B tokens.
If they bought 1.7B tokens for $120M, then that's around $0.07 per ARB. Pure speculation 👀
9/18
The best benchmarks for $ARB are Optimism and Polygon, but we can also work with other chains. Let's compare:
• Polygon $MATIC
• Optimism $OP
• Fantom $FTM
• Solana $SOL
10/18
Optimism $OP - the 2nd biggest Ethereum L2
• TVL: $950 million (DefiLlama)
• FDV: $10.8 billion
• Market cap: $800 million
If $ARB had this FDV, its price would be ~null.08
11/18
Polygon $MATIC
• TVL: null.05 billion
• FDV: $11.8 billion
• Market cap: $10.7 billion
If $ARB had this FDV, its price would be ~null.18
12/18
Fantom $FTM
• TVL: $445 million
• FDV: null.4 billion
• Market cap: null.2 billion
If $ARB had this FDV, its price would be ~$0.14
13/18
Solana $SOL
• TVL: $245 million
• Market cap: $7.7 billion
• FDV: $10.9 billion
If $ARB had this FDV, its price would be ~null.09
14/18
Summarizing:
• $ARB with the FDV of $OP: null.08
• $ARB with the FDV of $MATIC: null.18
• $ARB with the FDV of $FTM: $0.14
• $ARB with the FDV of $SOL: null.09
15/18
If the market prices ARB at the same level as OP and MATIC (~10B FDV) then token price could be ~null.00
In contrast, for ARB price to be $3.00, its FDV needs to be 3 times the size of OP's.
Yes, Arbitrum has two times Optimism's TVL, but I don't know if that is enough.
16/18
PRICE SCENARIOS
Pessimistic → Market Cap 360M - ARB $0.30
Moderate → Market Cap 780M - ARB $0.65
Optimistic → Market Cap 1.4B - ARB null.20
Ecstatic 🎉 → Market Cap 3.0B - ARB $2.50
17/18
The first hours of trading will probably be a mess, so expect volatility.
These numbers are just a price iteration and comparison to what's already out there. I don't expect them to make sense the first day of trading.
18/18
LIQUIDITY
Remember Optimism partnered with Wintermute for liquidity on $OP launch; we should wait to see how Arbitrum does it. I think they will surely take care of initial liquidity.
At which price would you sell $ARB?
⚡️ Join me on Telegram for lightning-fast alpha notifications: https://t.me/OlimpioAlpha
👥 Also, lots of DeFi and Airdrop talk is going on inside Earndrop's server, join here: https://earndrop.io/discord
- Yo @olimpio.lens I’m looking to bring the quality of my Lens feed up to par with the content on crypto Twitter. Any account you recommend following?
- Music Monday 001
The first edition of our new column ⬇️
https://investinmusic.mirror.xyz/wyELafDf-p5RX5jtV2P9ck6_hsqYUcsosMoIfvGfLMU
- Proud to announce the @refraction.lens x @lensprotocol Artist Fellowship Collection. For this special drop, we've curated artworks from 8 amazing artists in the web3 space - with a focus on concepts of ownership, narrative and one’s identity on the blockchain.
@elliepritts.lens @dannydaze.lens @timsaccenti.lens @lindadounia.lens @fingacode.lens @p1xelfool.lens @jimmyedgar.lens @andrewthomashuang.lens
These works are collectible exclusively on @lensprotocol and mark the launch of our creative partnership with Lens on-chain. For this inaugural event, all editions will be accessibly priced for all audiences to enjoy. Anyone with a wallet can participate. Be sure to have some WMATIC ready to go in your wallet to collect!
Collect the works here: https://gallery.refractiondrops.com/
Learn more and hear from some of the participating artists on today's conversation at 2 PM EST https://twitter.com/i/spaces/1nAKErnlZWXGL?s=20
- Proud to announce the @refraction.lens x @lensprotocol Artist Fellowship Collection. For this special drop, we've curated artworks from 8 amazing artists in the web3 space - with a focus on concepts of ownership, narrative and one’s identity on the blockchain.
@elliepritts.lens @dannydaze.lens @timsaccenti.lens @lindadounia.lens @fingacode.lens @p1xelfool.lens @jimmyedgar.lens @andrewthomashuang.lens
These works are collectible exclusively on @lensprotocol and mark the launch of our creative partnership with Lens on-chain. For this inaugural event, all editions will be accessibly priced for all audiences to enjoy. Anyone with a wallet can participate. Be sure to have some WMATIC ready to go in your wallet to collect!
Collect the works here: https://gallery.refractiondrops.com/
Learn more and hear from some of the participating artists on today's conversation at 2 PM EST https://twitter.com/i/spaces/1nAKErnlZWXGL?s=20
- Gitcoin is evolving 🦋
Gitcoin Grants will continue to be a public good on which the web3 ecosystem can rely. Soon, though, we’ll also be launching a concurrent offering: Grants Protocol 🍃
https://go.gitcoin.co/blog/introduction-to-grants-protocol
- Bloom into a new era of social 🌿 What will you build?
- We’ve teamed up with Lens to provide better social experience and features on Zerion. 🌿
You can now search, follow, and send tokens or NFTs to a Lens profile (ex. stani.lens).
To celebrate, we’re giving away amazing prizes each week for our Zerion DNA holders:
→ 2 Zerion Genesis NFT Card (Common - gives you zero fees until March 26, 2023)
→ 2 Zerion Genesis NFT Card (Rare - gives you zero fees, forever)
→ 1 rAAVE tickets for DevCon' 22, Bogota
This is a 4-week campaign, so you have multiple chances to win!
🛂 How to participate:
1. Claim your Lens profile: claim.lens.xyz
2. Set your Lens pfp to your Zerion DNA. Learn how to get DNA: https://zerion.io/dna/
3. Follow Zerion on Lens: https://lenster.xyz/u/zerion.lens
4. Click “Collect” (4th button underneath this post) for 0.69 wMatic
5. You can “Mirror” this post (2nd button) and earn 4.5% commission on every referral collector attributable to you
We’ll randomly choose the winners who followed all the steps above correctly and announce them in the comments. 💬
Stay tuned for our next post!
@lensprotocol