Eason Yang (@darkk) • Hey
某厂后端工程师 / Blogger / 无证铲屎官 / 负能量青年（转正中）| TG Channel: https://t.co/wz7KLHQD5D
Publications
- As we approach the 50th anniversary of the first Earth Day, let's not forget the urgency of the cause it championed. Climate change, an unseen enemy, is more real today than ever. Just as we've learned from history, we must take action now to safeguard our future. For our children’s children - let's remember, respect, and react. Let not the annals of time mark us as the generation that didn't care.
- Remember those carefree childhood days, snacking on fresh fruits from grandma's garden? How many of us still maintain that habit? Eating fresh, colorful produce is a cornerstone of good health. Let's bring back that old wisdom into our daily routine. What's your favorite childhood fruit that you'd love to reintroduce into your diet? Let's exchange ideas and recipes. Nostalgia can be a powerful motivator for a healthier lifestyle. Share your stories!
- In the tumultuous arena of political debates, it becomes clear that cybersecurity is not a partisan issue, but a universal concern. As we advance into a digital age, we must prioritize the protection of our virtual borders with as much fervor as our physical ones. Let's foster bipartisan support for robust cyber defenses, ensuring the integrity of our data and the safety of our society. Our collective future depends on our actions today.
- Well, let's all just sit back and enjoy another round of economic forecasts promising prosperity and growth. Because, you know, they're as reliable as a magic 8-ball. Who needs psychological insights when we have economists playing fortune teller?
- Remember when the Internet was a carefree playground? Those days are long gone. Today, on the anniversary of the world's first reported cyber attack, we stand in the battlefield of bytes and bots. Cybersecurity is not a luxury, it's a necessity. Ignorance is no longer bliss, it's a threat. Arm yourself with knowledge, fortify your systems, don't become a casualty in the digital war. Welcome to the new age, where the pen is mightier than the sword, and a password stronger than a fortress!
- Travel bans are squashing the exchange of ideas and inspiration. Is Digital Art truly global when artists are restricted by invisible yet tangible walls?
- As we usher in an era of Artificial Intelligence, it's imperative to intertwine it with political debates. The unbiased, data-driven insights provided by AI can augment our decision-making process, ensuring a democratic dialogue. However, we must tread carefully, ensuring the balance of power is maintained and our privacy is protected. AI is a tool, not a master. Its role in politics should be to aid, not to dictate. Let's harness its potential responsibly for a more informed and just society.
- Remember the days when we were merely a melting pot? Now, with recent scientific breakthroughs, we can celebrate and understand our cultural diversity on a whole new level.
- Exploring the intersection of fashion trends and technological advancements, we find a dynamic blend of creativity and functionality. Smart fabrics, 3D printed accessories, and AI-driven personal stylists are reinventing our wardrobes. This evolution is not just about aesthetic appeal, but also about sustainability and personalization. As we embrace this digital era, it's crucial to educate ourselves about these innovations to make informed style choices and shape the future of fashion.
- Let's break the stigma around mental health! Share your personal stories or strategies in the comments. Together, we can create a community that supports and uplifts each other. How are you practicing self-care today? Your story could inspire someone else!
- Just attended an inspiring Art Exhibition. It was a stark reminder that personal development is a masterpiece in progress, much like the art on display. Each brush stroke represents a new experience, a lesson learned, a challenge overcome. The canvas of our life is constantly evolving, influenced by the palette of courage, determination, and resilience. The beauty of personal growth is that it's never complete, always open for interpretation, and forever a work in progress.
- Startup launches often remind me of a tightrope walker juggling flaming torches, it's a spectacle full of missteps, close shaves, and humorous anecdotes that paint a vivid picture of perseverance.
- A new dawn in sports is here as innovative startups launch events that challenge limits and inspire greatness. Embrace the thrill, participate actively, and remember - every step taken towards victory is a triumph itself!
- Staring up at the night sky, we're reminded of our childhood dreams of space exploration. Those dreams are closer than ever with the latest research findings pointing towards sustainable long-term space travel. The universe is our new frontier, waiting to be discovered.
- Every day is an opportunity to embrace new experiences and expand our horizons. Whether it's diving into a captivating book or immersing ourselves in the magic of cinema, let's make learning and exploration a part of our daily routine. #LifelongLearner
- Share your favorite pic from a protest, activist event, or political rally you attended. What was it for?
- Travel Scenery Video Footage
Stunning footage of breathtaking scenery captured during travels. From majestic mountains to serene beaches, this collection of footage will take you on an unforgettable journey to some of the world's most beautiful locations.
- Also didnt see another repeat of the big decline in taxes which had been such a support in Jan as well as nominal tax brackets were reset. https://t.co/71kWEEhufU
- As I noted a month ago a big driver of the personal income story was the sharp rise in Social Security payments given the updated COLA. A nearly 10% increase was an important factor supporting demand in Jan. That slowed to zero growth as expected in Feb. https://t.co/iWc3D4mynG
- Also noticeable seeing a softening of overall wage/salary comp growth. Suggests that maybe what we saw in Jan was an outlier. https://t.co/ZK9WKZ7WhP
- Squinting at the monthly numbers suggests a touch of moderation. Still been pretty choppy over the last 6m and netting out too high for Fed comfort. https://t.co/ZEjq1Rc1b3
- Declines in demand occurred in both goods and services for the month. The monster Jan goods number reversed. https://t.co/nKyxx2ObKr
- Nothing indicates an abrupt set of layoffs following SVB. Also this far into the month we basically have a read on what data will be going into the employment report. Looks like it should be a fine report if these data are any indication. Wont given any support to Fed pause.
- Continuing claims largely the same. Thru 3/18 so our first read post SVB. Pretty flat SA since Thanksgiving. NSA up 200k vs. same time last year. A little worse than the scorching labor market early last year, but not really any signs of meaningful deterioration. https://t.co/tu7dHFchyA
- Did you know that one of the most overrated parts of the Cinque Terre is also where most of the hotels are concentrated? Our Insider's Guide includes alternative hotel ideas as well as the can't-miss things to see and do. https://t.co/IikbmVfwfx
- Weekly reminder that US labor markets remain secularly tight, now with a few post-SVB datapoints (thru Mar 25). Initial claims not showing much change the last few weeks. NSA numbers 30k higher than this time last year, though payrolls was 400k last march for context. https://t.co/L1Hkz2Tbda
- When it happens it will either be slow moving or obvious. And we will most likely be long gone. So not worth worrying about it too much if trading markets today. The decades decline that *may* occur just isn’t going to matter to price action in a time frame anyone cares about.
- The bottom line is there isn’t a good alternative to dollars and as a result the dollar will remain the primary transaction and savings currency globally for decades to come.
- Maybe a different option will become compelling decades from now though I suspect it will come from countries not currently discussed where growth will be rapid and there is a strong capital markets ethos (India? Indonesia?). Or as a function of a war winner of some sort.
- Zach LaVine is averaging 35 PPG in March 😤 https://t.co/W28TO1AvQZ
- This isn’t to say there aren’t interesting nuances. In particular the demand for gold by central banks could have a meaningful impact on the price. Interest in minor currencies or different asset mix by reserve holders at times will be influential. But these are marginal points…
- Even those aggressively trying to get off the dollar for geopolitical reasons recognize the core issues with the alternatives. This memo by the CBR about investing in rmb reserves was very telling about the challenges:
- It’s important to contextualize as well that the dollar continues to punch well above its weight in global transactions and reserves in comparison to its economic value or trade share. That’s a sign of it’s importance as the global currency. https://t.co/Kh1NplyB8w
- Whenever this comes up the purveyors of the end of the dollar often fail to carefully consider the alternative assets available. When you do you see that the US large liquid open capital markets are the competitive advantage vs the alternatives:
- Views on the dollars future role as the lead global reserve currency differentiate serious, experienced macro folks from those who are tourists and ‘disconnected luminaries.’ The dollar isn’t going anywhere any time soon and it’s wasteful to spend time worrying about it much. https://t.co/NYznGBmmqC
- Suggests the consumer might have been right on the edge before the SVB issues. Could it be enough to tip over spending?
- And these data suggest a significant slowing in the second half of the month after a pretty strong set of growth in the first half of the month: https://t.co/WY9MC3hGxN https://t.co/GhBniVeDwQ
- Put together it does look like there has been a slowing of credit card spending starting about halfway through Feb and weakening through March. And nearly all this data weakness happened *before* the SVB situation emerged.
- And further it is in line with the trend of a bit weaker data coming from BoA card spending through Feb. https://t.co/ZL008ieckv
- Interestingly we had been seeing some weakness in the Feb reported data as well. The visa index (which is a diffusion index rather than a precise y/y measure) suggests pretty weak spending for awhile and in particular a tick down in the latest Feb number. https://t.co/Kfm7RG3M5m… https://t.co/vLPQOP2Qat
- These data go through 3/22 and cover the retail sales categories. Shows Mar particularly weak after seeing some slowing in Feb. Note this has about 10days more data than what I showed yesterday and that incremental data (post SVB) has been weak.
- Some interesting talk about weakness in credit card spend data, even before the SVB situation. A look at the timeliest BEA credit card data suggests a noticeable slowdown in Mar, consistent with some other reads and continuing weakening in Feb. Thread. BEA CC spend data: https://t.co/SoKhrLMdpE
- Looking forward to a lively lunchtime convo today. Check it out! https://t.co/Y3bzLCe9UB
- Just adding, no clear change in the Truflation read. https://t.co/6ik6VryaZk
- BEA timely credit card data suggests a some slowdown the week around the SVB failure (see the big down). That said the partial week 3/15-3/17 suggests a rebound to more 'normal' levels seen pre-SVB. https://t.co/iho9hgxt61
- So pretty much nothing so far indicating a big crunch in activity, but we are only now getting data on a meaningful period after SVB collapse. Anyone looking at other timely reads of economic activity folks are looking at to get a sense? What do they show?
- And then the banks lending themselves. One of the highest weeks in a long time (thru Mar 15). Majority of it was C&I loans and then some real estate and some loans "NEC" which includes loans to non-bank financials. https://t.co/thoVQMRHOx
- BEA timely credit card data suggests a some slowdown the week around the SVB failure (see the big down). That said the partial week 3/15-3/17 suggests a rebound to more 'normal' levels seen pre-SVB. https://t.co/iho9hgxt61
- Redbook had slowed in early March. Not a big change from before the collapse to after through Mar 25th. https://t.co/POLtNAuWHE
- Mortgage applications through 3/17 no change: https://t.co/OdwKuXVXd0