crypto_charly (@cryptocharly) • Hey
0xcryptocharly.eth
ORB: https://orb.ac/link/PqnH
Publications
- @lens/yoginth and @lens/hey team is in beast mode
- Great Art!
Go follow @lens/acidburn
- Some of my art <3 `https://opensea.io/assets/matic/0x2953399124f0cbb46d2cbacd8a89cf0599974963/58033683631060243451262004794658753036670376480721940318774970796391907983361`
- Don't miss the oportunity, we're still eligible for a Space id Airdrop! LFG!!🚀
https://space.id/voyage/season-2?inviter=0xcryptocharly.arb
- $ARB PRICE SCENARIOS 🦅🔵
Investor price* → Market Cap 85M - ARB $0.07
Pessimistic → Market Cap 360M - ARB $0.30
Moderate → Market Cap 780M - ARB $0.65
Optimistic → Market Cap 1.4B - ARB null.20
Ecstatic 🎉 → Market Cap 3.0B - ARB $2.50
@Arbitrum Thread 🧵 - Let's estimate 🧠
$ARB is launching in 6 days
Snapshot Date: Feb 6th 2023
Many active DeFi got this airdrop (12% of the total supply)
How much could $ARB be worth a few days after launch?
1/18
Arbitrum One is the biggest Ethereum Layer2 blockchain in the space, by TVL and market share
• Market share: 55%
• TVL: $3.7B
2/18
Today we will roughly try to estimate $ARB price valuation a few days after launch - after the dust settles. By using:
• Total & initial circulating supply
• Market Benchmarks
• Percentage airdropped
3/18
TOKENOMICS
• Team & Advisors: 26.94%
• Investors: 17.53%
• Treasury: 42.78%
• Airdrop to users: 11.62%
• Airdrop to Arbitrum DAOs: 1.13%
4/18
TOKEN SUPPLY
• Total supply: 10B tokens (10,000,000,000)
• Circulating supply on 1st day: roughly 1.2B (1,200,000,000)
~12% of total supply
User airdrop is immediately unlocked. It's safe to assume that Airdrop to Arbitrum DAOs will not enter the market right away
5/18
AIRDROP CRITERIA
• Conducting transactions during 2-9 distinct months
• Transaction frequency & interaction (4-100)
• Arbitrum Nova activity: 3-10 transactions
• Bridging to Arbitrum & Arbitrum Nova
• Transaction value: $10k-$250k
• Providing liquidity: $10k-$250k
6/18
🔗 Check your eligibility here: arbitrum.foundation
🚨 Careful with scam links, always get your link from @Arbitrum twitter
Now, let's try to make scenarios for $ARB's price 👇
7/18
FDV AND MARKET CAP MEANING
• Fully Diluted Valuation (FDV) = total supply * token price
• Market cap = circulating supply * token price
With $ARB numbers:
FDV = 10B * token price
Market cap = 1.2B * token price
Token price = ❓
8/18
SPECULATING INVESTOR'S PRICE
According to Crunchbase, Offchain Labs raised 120M.
Investors are getting ~17% of the token supply, which is around 1.7B tokens.
If they bought 1.7B tokens for $120M, then that's around $0.07 per ARB. Pure speculation 👀
9/18
The best benchmarks for $ARB are Optimism and Polygon, but we can also work with other chains. Let's compare:
• Polygon $MATIC
• Optimism $OP
• Fantom $FTM
• Solana $SOL
10/18
Optimism $OP - the 2nd biggest Ethereum L2
• TVL: $950 million (DefiLlama)
• FDV: $10.8 billion
• Market cap: $800 million
If $ARB had this FDV, its price would be ~null.08
11/18
Polygon $MATIC
• TVL: null.05 billion
• FDV: $11.8 billion
• Market cap: $10.7 billion
If $ARB had this FDV, its price would be ~null.18
12/18
Fantom $FTM
• TVL: $445 million
• FDV: null.4 billion
• Market cap: null.2 billion
If $ARB had this FDV, its price would be ~$0.14
13/18
Solana $SOL
• TVL: $245 million
• Market cap: $7.7 billion
• FDV: $10.9 billion
If $ARB had this FDV, its price would be ~null.09
14/18
Summarizing:
• $ARB with the FDV of $OP: null.08
• $ARB with the FDV of $MATIC: null.18
• $ARB with the FDV of $FTM: $0.14
• $ARB with the FDV of $SOL: null.09
15/18
If the market prices ARB at the same level as OP and MATIC (~10B FDV) then token price could be ~null.00
In contrast, for ARB price to be $3.00, its FDV needs to be 3 times the size of OP's.
Yes, Arbitrum has two times Optimism's TVL, but I don't know if that is enough.
16/18
PRICE SCENARIOS
Pessimistic → Market Cap 360M - ARB $0.30
Moderate → Market Cap 780M - ARB $0.65
Optimistic → Market Cap 1.4B - ARB null.20
Ecstatic 🎉 → Market Cap 3.0B - ARB $2.50
17/18
The first hours of trading will probably be a mess, so expect volatility.
These numbers are just a price iteration and comparison to what's already out there. I don't expect them to make sense the first day of trading.
18/18
LIQUIDITY
Remember Optimism partnered with Wintermute for liquidity on $OP launch; we should wait to see how Arbitrum does it. I think they will surely take care of initial liquidity.
At which price would you sell $ARB?
⚡️ Join me on Telegram for lightning-fast alpha notifications: https://t.me/OlimpioAlpha
👥 Also, lots of DeFi and Airdrop talk is going on inside Earndrop's server, join here: https://earndrop.io/discord
- Explotó la competencia 🍋Lemon x Lens!
LFG! 🚀
Thanks @aaveaave team and @stani.lens for making this possible!
Lets launch our communities into web3!
- De Gea pintadisimo 🎨
- ORB es espectacular, y es más que necesaria una app que te permita aprovechar lens desde mobile para lograr la adopción que necesita el protocolo. Ahora, sí o sí faltaría mejorar:
- Integración con collects pagos
- Mejoras en performance/velocidad de carga de posts, feed, media, etc
Fuera de eso, espectacular ORB
- Ameen hints Tornado Cash sequel
https://twitter.com/ameensol/status/1629942658008514560
- $ZZ airdrop data 🪂
Today ZigZag released their airdrop information. Over 110,000 addresses qualify to claim $ZZ
Airdrop date: on or before Feb 28, that's 4 days from now.
Airdrop breakdown how to check if you can claim 🧵👇
1/10
Airdrop information
• Total addresses airdropped: after all airdrops around 110,000 addresses
• Total ZZ airdropped: after all airdrops around 35,000,000 ZZ (35% of supply)
2/10
Airdrop information
There are 7 possible ways to be eligible to this airdrop.
1. Trader airdrop
2. Gitcoin donor
3. Atlendis LP
4. MM bot airdrop
5. Discord Member
6. POAP holder
7. IDO participant
Let's break this down:
TRADER AIRDROP (1/7)
Criteria:
• 300 ZZ/address
• 1-month activity (1st & last swap 30 days apart)
• 4 unique days with swaps
Early adopter bonus:
• 300+ ZZ if 1st swap before 1 Dec 21
• 100+ ZZ if 1st swap before 1 Jan 22
🔗 search your wallet: https://zigzag-data-2.s3.amazonaws.com/trader_eligible_addresses.csv
GITCOIN DONOR (2/7)
Criteria:
2 ZZ for every USD donated (3 USD minimum)
🔗 search your wallet: https://zigzag-data-2.s3.amazonaws.com/gitcoin_eligible.csv
ATLENDIS LP (3/7)
Criteria:
500 ZZ per depositor (5 USD minimum)
🔗 search your wallet: https://zigzag-data-2.s3.amazonaws.com/atlendis_eligible_addresses.csv
MM BOT AIRDROP (4/7)
* This airdrop was already distributed. It was the first one.
Criteria:
ZZ based on amount of trades
🔗 search your wallet: https://docs.zigzag.exchange/zigzag-exchange/airdrops/mm-bot-airdrop
Check your wallet in https://zkscan.io/, airdrop already distributed.
DISCORD MEMBER AIRDROP (5/7)
Criteria:
ZZ based on Member role (1000 ZZ to Og, 750 ZZ to Senior, 500 ZZ to Member)
🔗 search your wallet: coming soon
POAP HOLDERS (6/7)
Criteria:
300 ZZ per POAP holder (https://poap.gallery/event/27697)
🔗 search your wallet: https://3059672253-files.gitbook.io/~/files/v0/b/gitbook-x-prod.appspot.com/o/spaces%2FvfgwOIiMma9VlJTwj0yt%2Fuploads%2FC7n2Ct9GFsxFaT4e8yXB%2FZigZag%20Exchange%20Lantern%20Festival%20Trivia.csv?alt=media&token=de2f2e43-5131-4fae-b791-4288ac784e6c
IDO PARTICIPANT (7/7)
Criteria:
3 ZZ for every ZZ purchased (1 ZZ minimum)
🔗 search your wallet: https://zigzag-data-2.s3.amazonaws.com/ido_eligible.csv
10/10
Airdrop will be claimed on or before February 28th, according to messages in their discord.
Full airdrop data: https://docs.zigzag.exchange/zigzag-exchange/airdrops
⚡️
- 🌊🌊🌊🌊
Mode
- Group chats/ group feeds
- What is earnable proof of humanity and how should it work?
Proving you're human could be extremely rewarding, basing human verification on the idea of earnable proof of humanity points could revolutionize Lens Protocol. These innovative points allow you to earn credit for completing tasks attesting that you are more likely real person, and could potentially unlock a variety of benefits in the online world. In this article, you will discover how proof of humanity points can change the way we think about online security and verification, and how they could help you take control of your online identity. There is many sound ways to prove humanity if you are willing to dox yourself like the infamous world coin’s scan your eyeball for tokens, which attests to your unique humanity. However, it is important that we be able to prove humanity without such rigorous breaches of humanity. This is where earnable proof of humanity points come in. Earnable proof of humanity points do not guarantee that an online account is human, instead the amount of points attest to the amount of human like tasks the online entity has performed. Or better said, the likelihood that a profile is being operated by a human is shown by its humanity points. One quick easy and dirty way to make the biometric test available without doxing is to generate zk-proofs off chain attesting to the unique humanness of your data, however this can be gamed like all other methods. Although, it could confirm the operator is human, with only zk-proofs on-chain it cannot attest that you have not been attested on-chain before, so the zk-proofing should only reward a capped amount of proof of humanity points. Then, there is another method of earning proof of humanity points through public attestations of past actions. This method would reward a capped amount of points to addresses that demonstrated publicly a proof of potential humanity. Did you use Uniswap 3 times this year? + 300 humanity points. Did you deposit onto AAVE? +350 humanity points. Did you mint a paid collect on lens? +1000 humanity points and so on. Additionally, this concept of earnable proof of humanity by a points system gets rid of the all or none idea that an actor is either a bot or human due to the goal of differentiation because that differentiation does not allow or account for errors in the model. Instead, earnable proof of humanity points provides a spectrum of chances that an online actor is a human as opposed to being objectively human. Another good example of a way to earn humanity points would be pop-up-shop quests. These quests would pop-up at random times for random durations. The quests should be things that are not predictable and easily botted, but able to be done by a human with on-chain verification. While not a perfect example of decentralized on-chain verification the “OP Quests” were an exemplary showcase of how this could work. A really strong way to have consistently well done quests in awarding points is to incorporate human intelligence tests into the quests especially by using visual illusions. Using visual illusions help humans combat bots because the bots do not have the same perception of the stimulus. Take the Titchener illusion for example, if you show a photograph of two equally sized balls, but one is surrounded by smaller balls and the other surrounded by larger balls, the equally sized balls will no longer look equal in size. A computer would perceive that the balls are equally sized no matter what, so this sort of test would generate high quality humanity points. Furthermore, there is the more rigorous proof of humanity test processed by humans themselves. You could fund and operate a peer to peer Turing test on people to prove their humanity. In this test, there would be a tester that would pay an arbitrary fee, then they would communicate in text chat with assessors that discern whether you could be human and get paid if their assessment is within the majority of the assessor votes, but acutely slashed if their vote is against the majority of assessor opinions. The amount of variations that can be brought about by these type of tests illustrate that no matter what, there are seemingly infinite ways to assess and give humanity points, but whose humanity points should be considered valid? Well, social consensus via a DAO should decide this manner. Humanity points should be issued by individual actors, apps, and protocols and a DAO should weigh the merit of each type of points value, and cumulate it into an universal humanity point super score that can be used to unlock human gated services and content. Therefore, an earnable proof of humanity points system would be extremely useful when screening bots in order to propagate the majority of services and content to potential humans.
- DeFi continues to accelerate in LatAm 💪 Lemon Integrates Aave Protocol, bringing access to over 1.7M Users in Brazil and Argentina 🍋 + 👻 = ⚡️
By integrating Aave’s smart💡contracts, Lemon will be able to provide greater 👻 Transparency and 🔐 Security to its growing user base!
The Aave integration allows users to deposit their tokens into the protocol and earn seamlessly 👌 while enabling users to control their funds, and safely access DeFi solutions.
"We're excited 👻 that Aave was chosen as the first DeFi protocol to be integrated with Lemon. This integration unlocks opportunities that were previously not available to millions of users in LatAm . We look forward to growing DeFi access globally with partners 🤝 like Lemon.” @stani.lens .
Learn more: https://wiki.lemon.me/aave-aave-que-es-y-como-comprarla-en-lemon-cash/
- Llegó la tercera
🇦🇷⭐⭐⭐🇦🇷
- `Hello World`