CrownPrince (@crownprince) • Hey
Hello world
Publications
- Enjoy Week #6
My favorite pieces of art for the 6th week of $enjoy tips
<https://gallery.so/agrislis/2gMKDVNwbJGbyVuIe3Gwc1wbLH6>
- Can anybody give me 5 matic?
- Gm☀️ Happy Sunday for all of you.😃
#nature #scenery #sunny
- Not bad
- Trump is sharing his thoughts about cryptocurrency https://twitter.com/Web3Brainiac/status/1642544849814450178?s=20
- Were you joking today? Tell me
- Gold or 💩?
- Have Lenster been working slowly last two day?
- https://www.renfieldmovie.com/videos/
- https://twitter.com/NFLALLDAY/status/1639059123961761793?s=20
- https://twitter.com/TechCrunch/status/1641133408242880513?s=20
- https://twitter.com/martian_wallet/status/1638643408943063041?s=20
- https://twitter.com/Casper_Network/status/1641130629424201767?s=20
- https://twitter.com/BetDEXLabs/status/1641131102487314437?s=20
- So the thousand-year-old oak burns
- https://twitter.com/arbitrum/status/1638889046964305922?s=20
- https://twitter.com/LensProtocol/status/1638981813904240640?s=20
- https://twitter.com/inside_r3/status/1637406834028867585?s=20
- https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/1637088001489551360?s=20
- https://twitter.com/arbitrum/status/1638889046964305922?s=20
- https://twitter.com/arbitrum/status/1638947628196188160?s=20
- https://twitter.com/SuiGlobal/status/1638978080218677248?s=20
- https://twitter.com/dydxfoundation/status/1638948098675187735?s=20
- https://twitter.com/adamscochran/status/1638974931873460253?s=20
- https://twitter.com/realfrankwilder/status/1638558411913850881?s=20
- WOW!! https://twitter.com/optimismFND/status/1638980367167401984?s=20
- https://twitter.com/Delphi_Digital/status/1638959634416566272?s=20
- https://twitter.com/TrustWallet/status/1638981148394004481?s=20
- https://twitter.com/HookedProtocol/status/1637391748883423234?s=20 Conagrats!
- https://twitter.com/TheBlock__/status/1637394722984525826?s=20
- https://twitter.com/weys7s/status/1637396112519618560?s=20
- Good fish
- Wassiegang Wassiegang
- This is Lenny
- https://twitter.com/trustfiorg/status/1637409875209666561?s=20
- $ARB PRICE SCENARIOS 🦅🔵
Investor price* → Market Cap 85M - ARB $0.07
Pessimistic → Market Cap 360M - ARB $0.30
Moderate → Market Cap 780M - ARB $0.65
Optimistic → Market Cap 1.4B - ARB null.20
Ecstatic 🎉 → Market Cap 3.0B - ARB $2.50
@Arbitrum Thread 🧵 - Let's estimate 🧠
$ARB is launching in 6 days
Snapshot Date: Feb 6th 2023
Many active DeFi got this airdrop (12% of the total supply)
How much could $ARB be worth a few days after launch?
1/18
Arbitrum One is the biggest Ethereum Layer2 blockchain in the space, by TVL and market share
• Market share: 55%
• TVL: $3.7B
2/18
Today we will roughly try to estimate $ARB price valuation a few days after launch - after the dust settles. By using:
• Total & initial circulating supply
• Market Benchmarks
• Percentage airdropped
3/18
TOKENOMICS
• Team & Advisors: 26.94%
• Investors: 17.53%
• Treasury: 42.78%
• Airdrop to users: 11.62%
• Airdrop to Arbitrum DAOs: 1.13%
4/18
TOKEN SUPPLY
• Total supply: 10B tokens (10,000,000,000)
• Circulating supply on 1st day: roughly 1.2B (1,200,000,000)
~12% of total supply
User airdrop is immediately unlocked. It's safe to assume that Airdrop to Arbitrum DAOs will not enter the market right away
5/18
AIRDROP CRITERIA
• Conducting transactions during 2-9 distinct months
• Transaction frequency & interaction (4-100)
• Arbitrum Nova activity: 3-10 transactions
• Bridging to Arbitrum & Arbitrum Nova
• Transaction value: $10k-$250k
• Providing liquidity: $10k-$250k
6/18
🔗 Check your eligibility here: arbitrum.foundation
🚨 Careful with scam links, always get your link from @Arbitrum twitter
Now, let's try to make scenarios for $ARB's price 👇
7/18
FDV AND MARKET CAP MEANING
• Fully Diluted Valuation (FDV) = total supply * token price
• Market cap = circulating supply * token price
With $ARB numbers:
FDV = 10B * token price
Market cap = 1.2B * token price
Token price = ❓
8/18
SPECULATING INVESTOR'S PRICE
According to Crunchbase, Offchain Labs raised 120M.
Investors are getting ~17% of the token supply, which is around 1.7B tokens.
If they bought 1.7B tokens for $120M, then that's around $0.07 per ARB. Pure speculation 👀
9/18
The best benchmarks for $ARB are Optimism and Polygon, but we can also work with other chains. Let's compare:
• Polygon $MATIC
• Optimism $OP
• Fantom $FTM
• Solana $SOL
10/18
Optimism $OP - the 2nd biggest Ethereum L2
• TVL: $950 million (DefiLlama)
• FDV: $10.8 billion
• Market cap: $800 million
If $ARB had this FDV, its price would be ~null.08
11/18
Polygon $MATIC
• TVL: null.05 billion
• FDV: $11.8 billion
• Market cap: $10.7 billion
If $ARB had this FDV, its price would be ~null.18
12/18
Fantom $FTM
• TVL: $445 million
• FDV: null.4 billion
• Market cap: null.2 billion
If $ARB had this FDV, its price would be ~$0.14
13/18
Solana $SOL
• TVL: $245 million
• Market cap: $7.7 billion
• FDV: $10.9 billion
If $ARB had this FDV, its price would be ~null.09
14/18
Summarizing:
• $ARB with the FDV of $OP: null.08
• $ARB with the FDV of $MATIC: null.18
• $ARB with the FDV of $FTM: $0.14
• $ARB with the FDV of $SOL: null.09
15/18
If the market prices ARB at the same level as OP and MATIC (~10B FDV) then token price could be ~null.00
In contrast, for ARB price to be $3.00, its FDV needs to be 3 times the size of OP's.
Yes, Arbitrum has two times Optimism's TVL, but I don't know if that is enough.
16/18
PRICE SCENARIOS
Pessimistic → Market Cap 360M - ARB $0.30
Moderate → Market Cap 780M - ARB $0.65
Optimistic → Market Cap 1.4B - ARB null.20
Ecstatic 🎉 → Market Cap 3.0B - ARB $2.50
17/18
The first hours of trading will probably be a mess, so expect volatility.
These numbers are just a price iteration and comparison to what's already out there. I don't expect them to make sense the first day of trading.
18/18
LIQUIDITY
Remember Optimism partnered with Wintermute for liquidity on $OP launch; we should wait to see how Arbitrum does it. I think they will surely take care of initial liquidity.
At which price would you sell $ARB?
⚡️ Join me on Telegram for lightning-fast alpha notifications: https://t.me/OlimpioAlpha
👥 Also, lots of DeFi and Airdrop talk is going on inside Earndrop's server, join here: https://earndrop.io/discord
- 100K Crystals! https://go.pacer.gg/CNCiuFC1gxb
- https://twitter.com/SynFuturesDefi/status/1637413377839333376?s=20
- https://twitter.com/CyberConnectHQ/status/1637404348237103104?s=20
- https://twitter.com/jchervinsky/status/1636356457770762245?s=20
- https://twitter.com/0xPolygon/status/1636474292572499968?s=20
- https://twitter.com/MessariCrypto/status/1636418348249657346?s=20
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