BCheque ◱ ◱ (@bcheque) • Hey
I write the BCheque Papers on NFTs & Crypto I 1700+ reading my NFT newsletter I Ex commercial lawyer
https://bcheque.substack.com/
Publications
- Gm team
The Snapshot takes a break for Easter Weekend
Hitting different shots today
The Snapshot will be back on Tuesday
Have a blessed long weekend
- It is difficult to keep on top of the modern market
So here is your Crypto and NFT market snapshot for Thursday 30 March
All news in 4 slides + with links
- It is difficult to keep on top of the modern market
So here is your Crypto and NFT market snapshot for Tuesday 28 March
All news in 4 slides
- Flipping communities
People who spend more time flipping communities than investing in relationships
- Built on @memester-xyz.lens
- Built on @memester-xyz.lens
- Built on @memester-xyz.lens
- Side hustles
The importance of side hustling
- NFT divorce
How to learn from your NFT divorces
- zkEVM summer coming?
- I have written 62 papers on NFTs and crypto for 62 weeks in a row
In January we crossed 1,200 subscribers
Now we have crossed 1,700 subscribers 🔥🔥🔥
https://bcheque.substack.com
- It is difficult to keep on top of the modern market
So here is your Crypto and NFT market snapshot for Monday 27 March
All news in 4 slides
- Two new Discord roles on Lenster guild 👀
https://guild.xyz/lenster
- @Scroll_ZKP
is an EVM compatible ZK rollup or in simpler terms a L2 solution aiming to scale Ethereum.
It is currently in pre-alpha and open for testing.
We covered scroll before, but it is a good idea to re-visit the protocol.
Navigate to: http://prealpha.scroll.io
Click on all "Add to MetaMask" buttons.
Head to the faucet to claim your test tokens: http://prealpha.scroll.io/faucet/
Navigate to the bridge: http://prealpha.scroll.io/bridge/
Transfer some of the test ETH (TSETH) to L2 Scroll.
After you bridged the tokens, you can head to: http://prealpha.scroll.io/swap/#/
Try the swap and pooling features.
ELIGIBILITY CRITERIA
There is no way of knowing for sure.
History suggests the following:
👉 Using the protocol repeatedly over multiple weeks
👉 Additional rewards for early birds and high volume
- 1/ DAILY AIRDROP STRATEGY #66
@dexguru
is among the oldest players in the modern DeFi space.
The dex aggregator has mentioned a $GURU token before.
You can just navigate to https://dex.guru and connect your wallet.
Use the platform to execute swaps.
Make sure to use the platform on L2 solutions as well.
Additionally, you can give a tip to Guru when making a transaction.
3/ ELIGIBILITY CRITERIA
There is no way of knowing for sure.
History suggests the following:
👉 Using the protocol repeatedly over multiple weeks
👉 Additional rewards for early birds and high volume
- 10k arb tokens collected
some sold
rest will delegate as think that will be worthwhile with all potential "L3" activity on arb
- $ARB PRICE SCENARIOS 🦅🔵
Investor price* → Market Cap 85M - ARB $0.07
Pessimistic → Market Cap 360M - ARB $0.30
Moderate → Market Cap 780M - ARB $0.65
Optimistic → Market Cap 1.4B - ARB null.20
Ecstatic 🎉 → Market Cap 3.0B - ARB $2.50
@Arbitrum Thread 🧵 - Let's estimate 🧠
$ARB is launching in 6 days
Snapshot Date: Feb 6th 2023
Many active DeFi got this airdrop (12% of the total supply)
How much could $ARB be worth a few days after launch?
1/18
Arbitrum One is the biggest Ethereum Layer2 blockchain in the space, by TVL and market share
• Market share: 55%
• TVL: $3.7B
2/18
Today we will roughly try to estimate $ARB price valuation a few days after launch - after the dust settles. By using:
• Total & initial circulating supply
• Market Benchmarks
• Percentage airdropped
3/18
TOKENOMICS
• Team & Advisors: 26.94%
• Investors: 17.53%
• Treasury: 42.78%
• Airdrop to users: 11.62%
• Airdrop to Arbitrum DAOs: 1.13%
4/18
TOKEN SUPPLY
• Total supply: 10B tokens (10,000,000,000)
• Circulating supply on 1st day: roughly 1.2B (1,200,000,000)
~12% of total supply
User airdrop is immediately unlocked. It's safe to assume that Airdrop to Arbitrum DAOs will not enter the market right away
5/18
AIRDROP CRITERIA
• Conducting transactions during 2-9 distinct months
• Transaction frequency & interaction (4-100)
• Arbitrum Nova activity: 3-10 transactions
• Bridging to Arbitrum & Arbitrum Nova
• Transaction value: $10k-$250k
• Providing liquidity: $10k-$250k
6/18
🔗 Check your eligibility here: arbitrum.foundation
🚨 Careful with scam links, always get your link from @Arbitrum twitter
Now, let's try to make scenarios for $ARB's price 👇
7/18
FDV AND MARKET CAP MEANING
• Fully Diluted Valuation (FDV) = total supply * token price
• Market cap = circulating supply * token price
With $ARB numbers:
FDV = 10B * token price
Market cap = 1.2B * token price
Token price = ❓
8/18
SPECULATING INVESTOR'S PRICE
According to Crunchbase, Offchain Labs raised 120M.
Investors are getting ~17% of the token supply, which is around 1.7B tokens.
If they bought 1.7B tokens for $120M, then that's around $0.07 per ARB. Pure speculation 👀
9/18
The best benchmarks for $ARB are Optimism and Polygon, but we can also work with other chains. Let's compare:
• Polygon $MATIC
• Optimism $OP
• Fantom $FTM
• Solana $SOL
10/18
Optimism $OP - the 2nd biggest Ethereum L2
• TVL: $950 million (DefiLlama)
• FDV: $10.8 billion
• Market cap: $800 million
If $ARB had this FDV, its price would be ~null.08
11/18
Polygon $MATIC
• TVL: null.05 billion
• FDV: $11.8 billion
• Market cap: $10.7 billion
If $ARB had this FDV, its price would be ~null.18
12/18
Fantom $FTM
• TVL: $445 million
• FDV: null.4 billion
• Market cap: null.2 billion
If $ARB had this FDV, its price would be ~$0.14
13/18
Solana $SOL
• TVL: $245 million
• Market cap: $7.7 billion
• FDV: $10.9 billion
If $ARB had this FDV, its price would be ~null.09
14/18
Summarizing:
• $ARB with the FDV of $OP: null.08
• $ARB with the FDV of $MATIC: null.18
• $ARB with the FDV of $FTM: $0.14
• $ARB with the FDV of $SOL: null.09
15/18
If the market prices ARB at the same level as OP and MATIC (~10B FDV) then token price could be ~null.00
In contrast, for ARB price to be $3.00, its FDV needs to be 3 times the size of OP's.
Yes, Arbitrum has two times Optimism's TVL, but I don't know if that is enough.
16/18
PRICE SCENARIOS
Pessimistic → Market Cap 360M - ARB $0.30
Moderate → Market Cap 780M - ARB $0.65
Optimistic → Market Cap 1.4B - ARB null.20
Ecstatic 🎉 → Market Cap 3.0B - ARB $2.50
17/18
The first hours of trading will probably be a mess, so expect volatility.
These numbers are just a price iteration and comparison to what's already out there. I don't expect them to make sense the first day of trading.
18/18
LIQUIDITY
Remember Optimism partnered with Wintermute for liquidity on $OP launch; we should wait to see how Arbitrum does it. I think they will surely take care of initial liquidity.
At which price would you sell $ARB?
⚡️ Join me on Telegram for lightning-fast alpha notifications: https://t.me/OlimpioAlpha
👥 Also, lots of DeFi and Airdrop talk is going on inside Earndrop's server, join here: https://earndrop.io/discord
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- First beer bought with Goerli G
- i wonder how collectability works here
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- #Yasai the time value of clout is greater than the time value of money
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