Bayram (@bayka) • Hey
Product guy and systems thinker. Founder of App in the Air, building Wingman (flight delays prediction market https://wingman.wtf) now and sharing lessons
Publications
- 🧠 **Frameworks Over Hacks**
One of the foundational thinking frameworks I swear by is the BJ Fogg's Behavior Model (https://behaviormodel.org/). If you aren’t familiar, it states that for any behavior to manifest, three critical elements must converge simultaneously: Motivation, Ability, and a Prompt. When a behavior does not occur, at least one of those three elements is missing.
Now, why does this matter for startups or any product team? Simply put, it's an incredibly insightful lens through which to view user behavior. If a user isn’t engaging in a desired action within your product, there's a high probability that one of these three elements is amiss. Here's a cool twist—you can even make up for a lack of one element with the others. Low motivation? Make the action easier, and boom, problem solved.
But more broadly, I'm a huge advocate for using frameworks to guide our thinking and decision-making. Why? Because while growth hacks or specific tactics may provide short-term spikes, frameworks empower us with a structured way to think, adapt, and innovate consistently. They allow us to assimilate lessons from various domains, be it another product's successes or failures, and apply them in our unique contexts.
In future posts, I'll spill the beans on some of the hits and misses we've had using this model in Wingman 📊
- **Benchmarking**
Benchmarking is not just a tool; it's a revelation. A good friend of mine often says, 'Information appears when you compare,' and I can't agree more. In the world of web3, where we are building and innovating at a breakneck pace, understanding where we stand is vital. It's not about competition; it's about learning, improving, and growing together.
At this early stage of the market, our focus must be on growing the market itself, not merely competing within it. We're all part of a rising tide that can lift all boats.
Here's a snapshot from Wingman that I believe many web3 founders may find interesting. Our current conversion rate from visiting the app to connecting the wallet is about 2.2%. This simple number, when put in context, can be a mirror reflecting our strengths and areas for improvement.
Are you tracking similar metrics? I'd love to hear from fellow builders in the community. Let's compare, let's learn, and let's make web3 a more transparent and collaborative space. Share your data, and let's grow together!
- **From Simplicity to Complexity**
Building a product can be a dizzying journey through complexity, but there's a systems law that serves as a grounding principle: All complex systems that work evolved from simpler systems that worked. If you aspire to build a complex system, start with simplicity and refine over time.
In the rush to innovate, it's tempting to analyze competitors' products in their current, advanced state. But attempting to improve on all of their features can be a futile endeavor. What's valuable is peering back into the past to uncover the initial, more straightforward versions of those products.
When we were building Wingman, we didn't just try to outdo our competitors' current capabilities; we took the time to explore the Wayback Machine, product launch videos, and founder interviews to understand their evolution. This exploration of simpler systems offered some insights into what worked initially and how it could be evolved.
Regardless, do not forget the law and keep it simple at the start, then refine according to both quantitative and qualitative feedback from your users.
- **Pretotyping**
I'd like to introduce you to a concept called pretotyping. This isn't a typo; pretotyping is a set of tools, techniques, and tactics that help validate product ideas quickly, objectively, and accurately. Before spending time and resources on a fully-fledged prototype, pretotyping ensures you are building "The Right It" before you build "It" right.
Pretotyping was originally developed at Google in 2010 and since then has been tested, refined, taught, and put into practice with great success in hundreds of projects and organizations. Curious? Check out "The Right It" book by Albert Savoia for various techniques, or watch this great video (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3sUozPcH4fY)where Albert himself explains the idea.
Let me share a real-life example from Wingman to illustrate the concept. Our designer had an idea to showcase real dynamic markets on Wingman's landing page, with the goal of gauging interest and nudging the visitor to make their first prediction. However, developing this feature would take time. So, we opted for an experiment: we simply showed a static screenshot of a real market to see if it would have the same effect.
We tried this approach on both our landing page and Twitter ads. The results? The Twitter ads with the real market screenshot had a 3.5x higher CTR than our previous banner. (See examples in the comments; landing page results are still in progress.)
This exercise in pretotyping allowed us to test an idea with minimal investment and learn valuable insights that will guide our next steps. By displaying a snapshot of the real market, we were able to achieve our goal of sparking interest and encouraging visitors to make that exciting first prediction without spending extensive resources on development.
- web3 Community is Awesome
We held a team retrospective today, two weeks post-launch, to reflect on our journey and lessons learned. One takeaway that really stood out, and pleasantly surprised us, is the immense support we've received from the web3 community.
You (web3 community) been exceptionally receptive and warm to our new product and ideas. We had fears that we might face criticism around the concept of prediction markets, or worse, receive no feedback at all. Instead, we've received overwhelmingly positive feedback and encouragement to keep building. The support even includes endorsements from top influencers in the web3 community!
A pro tip for other web3 startups: Consider launching your product on launchcaster.xyz rather than ProductHunt. It's tailored to web3 with features like launch NFT support and seamless integration with farcaster and lens.
P.S. I'd much appreciate your support for our product on launchcaster (https://www.launchcaster.xyz/wingman/64ca9b00213c19cfce9acf19) - every upvote and/or launch NFT mint matters!
- Just kicking off my journey in the world of web3 apps, I've decided to document and share my insights and lessons learned. Sharing one of them here, click on the link below for more:
https://t.me/web3_growth
**Errors in Errors o__O**
Let's talk today about an often-overlooked aspect of app development: error messages. We recently received feedback from Vahe, one of our Wingman users, about difficulties locating his flight. The root of the issue was our temporary limitation of only allowing predictions for flights scheduled within the next three days. The error message, "No flight found," didn't accurately reflect this constraint nor suggest a remedy. Obviously, that frustrated him.
This was not an isolated incident. Our designer discovered similar struggles during a replay of a user session from one of our users in Spain. Error messages may not be the focal point when developing an MVP, but they can significantly disrupt the user journey and conversion funnel if not handled correctly.
Acknowledging this, we delved into NN Group's guidelines (https://www.nngroup.com/articles/error-message-guidelines/) for crafting effective error messages. We're now in the process of revising our error messages to be more clear, specific, and actionable. Expect improvements soon :)
NB: not all error messages have equal impact. Focus on those that hinder users from achieving key objectives in your product's current stage. For us, right now, that's users making their first prediction.
Bonus question:
See the screenshot in Comments section and advise how to apply guidelines mentioned above to the "flight not found" issue. For instance, visibility & efficiency guidelines
- oh wow, "see the feed through" - this is a cool feature! o__O
- Wingman - flight delays prediction market
Wingman is a revolutionary flight delay prediction platform designed to transform idle airport waiting time into an opportunity for potential profit. With Wingman, the frustration of flight delays becomes a chance for reward and engagement.
- Hey there!
I'm Bayram, a seasoned web2 entrepreneur currently transitioning to the web3 landscape.
My current project is Wingman, a flight delays prediction market, which went live on Polygon PoS last week. Additionally, I've made it to the top 10 finalists at ETHGlobal Waterloo with our decentralized eBay hack.
Excited to learn and to share my journey with all of you.