liuvatar (@axelribbon) • Hey

NFT degen

Stats

Following: 180
Followers: 90

Publications

Q1 ECI came in a touch firmer than expected, while March headline and core PCE inflation largely in line. Personal income and spending for March a bit higher than expected. Final Michigan consumer sentiment (and inflation expectations) little changed from initial reading. Data fit with widely expected 25 bp rate hike from the Fed next week. Pretty quiet from a headline perspective. Some focus on Reuters report that regulators working with banks to help put a rescue package together for FRC, though CNBC said most likely scenario was receivership. Politico said White House does not feel pressure to come to the bargaining table on debt ceiling following Republican passage of their bill. Fed's report on SVB collapse recommended stronger bank supervision and regulation.
AMZN beat with better AWS growth, though flagged a 500 bp slowdown in AWS growth in April. XOM beat with downstream the tailwind. CVX also beat, though FCF disappointed. TMUS missed on subs. INTC beat but takeaways focused on low bar and still difficult fundamental backdrop. MDLZ beat and raised and flagged broad-based demand in both developed and emerging markets. AMGN missed on Otezla and Enbrel. CL latest consumer staple name to beat and raise. COF hit by higher provisions and faster credit normalization. FSLR missed on top and bottom line. NET down big on worsening sales cycles. ~PINS~ guidance underwhelmed. SNAP down big on weaker Q2 guidance and investment cycle concerns. NWL flagged weaker discretionary spending.
US equities higher Friday following a big Thursday rally. Major indexes mostly higher for the week. Energy, media/cable, autos, transports, travel & leisure, chemicals, paper/packaging, homebuilders, semis, HDDs, networking and select regional banks outperformed. Big tech trailed the tape with AMZN a drag. Steel, precious metals, beverages, utilities among the other laggards. Treasuries stronger across the curve with yields on track to end the week lower. Dollar index up 0.1% with post-BoJ yen weakness the big story in FX. Gold ended fractionally higher. Bitcoin futures off 1.7%. WTI crude settled up 2.7% but logged a weekly decline. o Earnings continued to dominate the headlines. With over 50% of the S&P 500 having now reported, key earnings metrics still running above their one-year averages and corporate commentary still seems more supportive of a soft-landing scenario. However, not many other bullish talking points (though this dynamic has also come with a contrarian/FOMO spin). Debt ceiling stalemate (and potential for spending cuts out of Washington), dampened macro surprise momentum, recession signaling from deep curve inversion, collapsing money supply growth and tightening lending standards, margin contraction/reversion risk, higher-for-longer Fed, and bulled up systematic fund positioning still the big bearish talking points.
friday recap <<< >>> U.S. Market Recap: Dow +0.80%, S&P 500 +0.83%, Nasdaq +0.69%, Russell 2000 +1.01%
Among today's earnings, PG beat across all key segments and raised FY organic-growth guidance. HCA beat and raised with analysts positive on better volumes and controlled compensation expenses. CSX beat despite difficult macro backdrop with takeaways positive on pricing power, cost control and improved network fluidity. Street positive on meaningful margin expansion at PPG while company also flagged easing supply chain pressures. KNX missed, cut FY guidance, and noted truckload demand has remained weak through April. ALV highlighted sales growth but saw softer OM. VMI beat and raised with focus on strong irrigation results. OZK beat with lending a bright spot. CNXN negatively preannounced, noting weak macro backdrop led its customers to exercise greater caution and selectivity with their short-term IT investment plans.
Not a lot in the headlines today. April US global flash PMIs came in ahead of consensus for both services and manufacturing. Release noted sharp increase in output, stronger demand conditions, and uptick in new orders. In addition, prices saw sharpest increase since last September. Bloomberg reported McCarthy does not have the Republican votes to pass his debt ceiling plan; had been thoughts a vote could be scheduled for next week but that is uncertain. Elsewhere, Fed's latest balance sheet update showed that discount window and BTFP loans ticked higher. Money market funds saw third biggest outflow on record. Lot of headlines about White House plans to limit investment in key parts of China's economy by US businesses. Consumer confidence, new home sales, durable goods orders, initial claims and Q1 GDP some of the highlights on the economic calendar next week.
Market continued to deal with a lot of moving pieces and conflicting signals. Fed seemingly the biggest area of debate with hawkish Fedspeak reiterating the higher-for-longer mantra while market expecting a quick pivot in 2H. Soft landing supported by strong labor market, consumer resilience and housing rebound. However, hard landing underpinned by magnitude and velocity of the tightening cycle. Tight corporate bond spreads a signal for the soft landing camp. Also some focus on slow post-pandemic credit normalization. Deep curve inversion, collapsing money supply growth, contractionary ISM manufacturing readings and leading indicators the key signals for the hard landing camp. Earnings another area of debate as growth expected to resume in Q3, while the more bearish strategists see 10-20% downside risk to consensus estimates. Some 180 S&P constituents scheduled to report next week.
US equities finished slightly higher in somewhat choppy and directionless Friday trading. Dow, S&P, and Nasdaq finished lower for the week. Sectors were mixed but, once again, fairly bunched. HPCs (PG), hospitals (HCA), pharma, biotech, telecom, restaurants, and travel/tourism were some of the outperformers. Big tech mostly lower but AMZN had a good day. Banks, global miners, industrial metals, building materials, auto parts, semis, energy, insurance, chemicals, A&D and China tech were among the weaker spots. Treasuries weaker across the curve, with yields ending up for the week. Dollar was a bit weaker on the yen and euro crosses. Gold ended down 1.4%, back below $2,000/oz. Bitcoin futures were down 3.6%. WTI crude settled up 0.6% but still posted a 5.8% decline this week.
friday recap <<< >>> U.S. Market Recap: Dow +0.07%, S&P 500 +0.09%, Nasdaq +0.11%, Russell 2000 +0.10%
Busy day of corporate updates. TSLA cut Model 3 and Model Y prices for second time this month ahead of earnings after the close today. NFLX Q2 guidance light on delayed rollout of paid sharing though company remained upbeat on monetization initiatives. ABT beat on Medical Devices strength. MS missed on GMW margins and NII, but takeaways were mixed and stock ended higher. UAL guided EPS up for Q2 and talked up strong demand environment. CDW negatively preannounced on heightened macro uncertainty. ASML beat but also flagged some signs of caution among customers. ISRG reported strongest procedure growth in a decade and raised FY guidance. TRV beat and raised. SNAP announced it has more than 3M paid subscribers. USB was helped by better PPNR and guide. SYF was a low-bar beneficiary and left guide unchanged. WAL was up big on better core results and signs of deposit flow stabilization.
Very little of note in today's headlines. House Speaker McCarthy unveiled budget bill to raise debt ceiling that includes $4.5T in total budget cuts, as well as capping budget growth a 1% per year. However, still uncertain whether the bill can get through House, while Senate Democrats have said any bill with spending cuts a non-starter. Not much new out of latest Fed Beige Book, which was consistent with recent economic releases showing slowing economic activity, disinflation, and easing labor-market conditions. A number of press articles noted that bank earnings show little signs of strain following March banking turmoil. Also some focus on FCI, which has recouped declines following banking crisis and has risen back to early March levels.
It was a very uneventful session with earnings the primary focus and little to adjust market perceptions of the Fed's rate path. Rates seemed to remain something of an overhang, with the big backup over over the last couple of weeks also a function of dialing back of near-term Fed pivot expectations, as well as easing banking sector stresses. However, banking also cited as bullish theme given low bar, better-than-feared results. Elsewhere, corporate updates/headlines mixed with some cautious takeaways surrounding some higher-profile growth names, more tech scrutiny. Also some pickup in attention on debt ceiling stalemate tail risks, with some firms flagging the potential for an earlier-than-expected deadline in June should tax receipts start to weaken. Curve inversion recession signaling, 10-20% downside risk to consensus EPS estimates, divergence between Fed and market on pivot expectations and valuation the other go-to bearish talking points.
US equities were mixed in fairly quiet Wednesday trading, ending just off best levels. P&C insurers (TRV), exchanges (NDAQ), banks, airlines (UAL), utilities, credit cards, MedTech (ABT, ISRG) were some of the best groups. Managed care (ELV), refiners, E&Ps, streaming (NFLX), autos/EVs (TSLA, RIVN) were among the worst areas. Treasuries were weaker with the curve flattening. 2Y yield now up 25bp+ in past four sessions and 50bp since 24-Mar. Dollar was firmer vs yen and euro but a bit weaker on the sterling cross. Gold ended down 0.6% but off worst levels. Bitcoin futures were down 3.0% and back below the $30K level. WTI crude settled down 2.1%, ending back below $80/barrel.
wednesday recap <<< >>> U.S. Market Recap: Dow (0.23%), S&P 500 (0.01%), Nasdaq +0.03%, Russell 2000 +0.22%
In today's earnings, BAC beat on better revenues and a lower provision, while NCOs remained below pre-pandemic levels. JNJ beat and raised, though some focus on Stelara loss of exclusivity and talc overhangs. BK revenue a bit better and EPS in line, but fee income light. LMT beat with Missies/Fire Control a bright spot. GS earnings beat, but helped by provisions and revenue light. JBHT missed on operating income and takeaways noted downbeat tone of the conference call with management saying they are in a freight recession. Elsewhere, reports MSFT working on its own "Athena" AI chip. BABA helped by reports of weaker China regulatory crackdown. ~GSK~ to acquire BLU for $14.75/sh in cash in a deal valued at approx. $2B. FT said DELL focused on securing more components from outside China. NVEI hit by a short report. o Fed's Bullard said 50bp of additional tightening needed to get rates into adequately restrictive territory. However, Fed's Bostic said he is sticking with one more rate hike as his base case. March housing starts came in just above consensus but still lower m/m; building permits declined more than expected with a notable drop in multifamily permits. Big macro news overnight was the better-than-expected China Q1 GDP report and mixed March activity data with retail sales the big economic normalization beneficiary. Press reports continue to highlight CRE (office) troubles and cautious sell-side strategist takes. BofA April Global Fund Manager Survey most bearish of 2023 with a pickup in expectations for weaker growth and highest bond allocation since March 2009.
Not many catalysts behind today's price action, but the bull/bear debate continues. Recent support for risk assets chalked up to renewed soft-landing expectations, easing banking sector stresses, good start to Q1 earnings season and positioning/short covering. However, pickup in soft-landing expectations and dampened liquidity concerns in the banking sector have also been behind a meaningful backup in rates, a firming of May rate hike odds to near 90%, and forecasts of a year-end funds rate now over 4.60%. In addition, favorable earnings metrics partly a function of the extent to which the bar has been lowered and still a lot of concern about further margin compression/reversion and the potential for 10-20% downside to consensus EPS estimates. Valuation flagged as another overhang, particularly from an ERP perspective. Debt ceiling ultimately expected to get resolved but headlines likely to lean negative for the next few months.
US equities finished somewhat lower overall in uneventful Tuesday trading, with the S&P staying near the unchanged mark for the bulk of the session. No big directional drivers were in play as market waits for more earnings. Sector performance was very tightly bunched. Homebuilders, A&D (LMT), travel/tourism, industrial metals, moneycenter/custody banks, apparel were among the outperformers. Internets, REITs, pharma (JNJ), biotech, chemicals, regional banks, refiners were some of the laggards. Treasuries were mixed with the curve flattening. Followed another backup in yields on Monday. Dollar index was down 0.4% after gaining 0.5% in prior session. Gold finished up 0.6%. Bitcoin futures were up 2.9%, moving back above $30K. WTI crude settled up 0.6% in somewhat choppy trading after a 2% pullback to start the week.
tuesday recap <<< >>> U.S. Market Recap: Dow (0.03%), S&P 500 +0.09%, Nasdaq (0.04%), Russell 2000 (0.40%)
Retail sales declined more than expected in March. Fits with thoughts risk was to the downside given read-throughs from credit card spending data (some focus on lower tax refunds). However, some sense control-group sales not as bad as feared. Some focus on notable jump in year-ahead inflation expectations from UMich April consumer sentiment. Fedspeak was also on the radar . Fed Governor Waller and Atlanta's Bostic signaled support for 25bp hike in May, though Chicago's Goolsbee again said Fed should be mindful of not being too aggressive. Elsewhere, banks reduced borrowings from two Fed backstop lending facilities for a fourth straight week as liquidity pressures on the sector eased further following last month's bank collapses. Inflows to money market funds slowed but remained elevated. Republicans reportedly planning to unveil one-year debt ceiling expansion in exchange for spending concessions.
Disinflation traction remained the big positive for risk sentiment, with upside also chalked up to positioning dynamics. However, still a lot more bearish than bullish talking points. Despite the cooler inflation prints, bond yields still up for the week and Fed still expected to go another 25bp in May before (possibly) pausing. Also concerns about the big divergence between market and Fed on pivot expectations, with the market pricing in ~200bp in rate cuts over a roughly 18-month stretch starting in June. Earnings arguably the biggest source of downside risk for the market with some strategists expecting consensus estimates to fall another 10-20% on a softer macro backdrop and sticky wage pressures on margins.
US equities ended lower in Friday afternoon trading, though stocks came off worst levels from the early afternoon. Major indices still logged gains the week. Managed care (UNH), A&D (BA), insurers (HIG), industrial metals, oil services, media, REITs, utilities were among today's laggards. Moneycenter banks outperformed on better-than-feared earnings, though regionals were broadly weak. There were some pockets of relative strength in E&Ps, machinery, multis, road/rail, IBs, apparel, and auto suppliers. Treasuries came under meaningful bear-flattening pressure, adding to big yield increases for the week. Hawkish Fedspeak was flagged as a big overhang. Dollar index was up 0.6% and reversed much of its weekly pullback. Gold finished down 1.9%. Bitcoin futures were up 0.3%. WTI crude settled up 0.4% to notch a fourth-straight weekly gain.
friday recap <<< >>> U.S. Market Recap: Dow (0.42%), S&P 500 (0.21%), Nasdaq (0.35%), Russell 2000 (0.86%)
French antitrust authorities likely to take action against AAPL over app tracking policies. PYPL announced partnership with V on Visa+ payments platform. MRNA delayed flu vaccine after it didn't meet trial benchmarks. WBD to announce HBO Max and Discovery Plus bundle tomorrow. ACI beat but margins weak and flagged further labor, other cost pressures. KMX beat on top and bottom lines on stronger used vehicle gross profits. Trillium Capital suggested three largest GETY shareholders take company private. ADTN cut Q1 revenue guidance citing customer concerns over inventory stock. OPI to merge with DHC in all-stock deal. BX raised $30B for latest global real estate fund. WT reported AUM up over $3B in March.
Quiet on the macro front ahead of March CPI and FOMC minutes on Wednesday. When it comes to CPI, Street looking for another month of firmer core inflation with car prices flagged as an upside risk. Some discussion about some sequential moderation in shelter prices but still expected to remain fairly elevated. Focus of FOMC minutes will likely be on potential fallout from the banking sector turmoil. Chicago Fed's Goolsbee called for patience and prudence around further hikes given financial stability concerns. Nothing incremental from Fed's Williams. Recent headlines have focused on banking sector stabilization, credit crunch concerns, outsized short positioning, continued money market inflows and a pickup in expectations for another 25 bp rate hike from the Fed at the May meeting.
A fairly uneventful session with nothing really new from a thematic perspective ahead of some key near-term potential directional drivers. Positioning may be biggest positive for the bulls right now amid skepticism surrounding the late-Q1 bounce. In addition, soft-landing expectations have firmed back up following the recent negative macro surprise momentum with help from the favorable labor market rebalancing. Banking sector stabilization another bullish talking point. Also some focus on the extent to which the bar for Q1 earnings season has been lowered. Bears focused on hard-landing scenarios driven by the aggressiveness of the tightening cycle and signaled by deep curve inversion, collapsing money supply growth, tight lending standards and contractionary ISM manufacturing readings.
US equities were mixed in Tuesday trading, though the S&P finished unchanged after giving back modest gains in a late afternoon slide. However, breadth still positive while equal-weight S&P outperformed cap-weighted index by over 60 bp. Cyclicals among best performers again with banks, household durables, homebuilders, machinery, electricals and multis, road and rails, PE, credit cards, energy, industrial metals, autos, retail among best performers. FANMAGs all lower, while semis, software, internets, IT equipment, insurance, grocers, bond proxies, and biotech also trailed. Treasuries mostly weaker with curve flattening after yields backed up on Monday. Dollar index down 0.4% on broad-based weakness. Gold finished up 0.8%. Bitcoin futures up 3.7% and over $30K for first time since June. WTI crude settled up 2.2% after falling more than 1% to start the week.
tuesday recap <<< >>> U.S. Market Recap: Dow +0.29%, S&P 500 (0.00%), Nasdaq (0.43%), Russell 2000 +0.80%
**🚨 ATTENTION: This is a celebration post with surprises for collectors, check conditions below** 👀🥳 **`100 - A Wizard Without a Shadow III`** Ink, watercolour and creative breakfast 10/04/2023, Berlin, Germany 🇩🇪 It is official: I have a tradition of creative breakfasts on Mondays. Today, J. joined me again, and dedicated her time to write some nice things that hopefully will see the public light soon 👀. We spent more than two hours, time in which I started to paint A Wizard Without a Shadow. This morning the weather was incredibly nice, a clear perfume of spring in the air, open sky, and lots of sunlight. That's why J. proposed to visit a place with an open terrace: the Kaffeebar Jacobi. What an amazing place! This café is located in the limit of a cemetery near Hermannplatz, but totally covered from the chaos of this spot of the city. The whole session was very pleasant, as people around us were also in a creative / pacific / slow mood either reading, writing or chatting. Next Monday I will do the last session of watercolours, and I will give for finished the drawing (hopefully!). In any case, it looks like this artwork is going to be well received: isn't even finished yet and L. already asked me for a copy yesterday at the market. But tell me dear reader, How many repetitions do you think we need to define a tradition? Do you like to enjoy a free time near a cemetery? Good night 🌚 . . . **🚨🚨 SUPER SPECIAL POST! 🚨🚨** Today's is a #CelebrationPost : **100 days of daily posts!** I feel super grateful with all the Lens community and I want to celebrate: **I will send a limited series copy print signed by me of "A Wizard Without a Shadow"** to those who collect this post 🫶🏻 This will also include **an NFT with the same serial number minted on main net**. Hurry up, only 24 hours to collect! #LMCC : 24 hours / Open Edition / 20 WM / 10% RF Thank you so much for being there, interacting and collecting my content during this time @stani.lens @arterlioz.lens @carstenpoetter.lens @jessyjeanne.lens @chaoticmonk.lens @mathematic.lens @letsfuckinggo.lens @yerba.lens @0x866.lens @36868.lens @gigakyle.lens @bradorbradley.lens @rickydata.lens @visualswithsam.lens @matte.lens @ryanfox.lens @cryptokoh.lens @nicogallardo.lens @punkess.lens @llaury.lens @vondra.lens @leiniercs.lens @potential.lens @98866.lens @mukenio.lens . . . #handmade #drawingoftheday #lufo #art #drawing #pen #berlin #germany #deutschland #ink #watercolour #travel #lenster #lens #lensport #lensta #GN #GM #breakfast #creativebreakfast #celebration #openedition
COST reported softer-than-expected March comp growth, putting more focus on concerns about a slowdown in spending. GOOGL CEO said company plans to add AI features to search engine. STZ beat and guided above, though beer margin guidance flagged as a disappointment. LEVI beat, highlighted meaningful progress on inventory and reaffirmed guidance, but also missed on GM and stock weaker. RPM guided below the Street, flagging increasingly cautious macro/ BBWI CFO stepping down in late July. Several regional banks, including WFC, caught upgrades at Raymond James.
nitial claims came in higher than expected and there was a big upward revision to the prior week. Goldman Sachs had flagged the potential for a big jump in claims today as distortions to seasonal factors are corrected in the annual update. Challenger Layoffs jumped 15% m/m and over 300% y/y in March, with Q1 layoffs the most in three years. Pretty quiet elsewhere. Fed's Bullard said monetary policy can continue to pressure inflation and noted Q1 data have been stronger than he expected. House Speaker McCarthy said Wall Street should be concerned about the debt ceiling stalemate and continued to rule out a "clean" increase. More discussion in the financial press about the flood of cash to money-market funds, along with some related scrutiny surrounding the Fed's RRP.
Very uneventful session into the long holiday weekend. Market will have to wait until Monday to react to Friday's release of March nonfarm payrolls. Negative macro surprise momentum the big theme over the last few days, a dynamic evidenced by lower rate backdrop and cyclical factor underperformance with the pickup in hard-landing worries. However, equity market pullback follows a nice run-up in risk assets to end Q1 and there has been some semblance of a cushion from the rotation to defensives and OPEC-driven rally in energy. In addition, data have still largely fit with softer-landing scenarios. Similar dynamic has played out with corporate updates, though only a small sample size ahead of the flurry of Q1 earnings reports over the next few weeks.
US equities mostly higher Friday, reversing some early sluggishness. Mixed price action beneath the surface. Big tech, regional banks, airlines, rails, precious metals, biotech and pharma among the best performers. Energy, payments, credit cards, machinery, builders, apparel & accessories, softlines, chemicals, networking and semicap equipment the laggards. Treasuries mostly weaker with the curve bear flattening. Dollar better vs yen but weaker vs euro. Gold finished down 0.5% after nearing record highs earlier this week. Bitcoin futures down 0.1%. WTI crude settled up 0.1% to log a 6.6% weekly gain.
U.S. Market Recap: Dow +0.01%, S&P 500 +0.36%, Nasdaq +0.76%, Russell 2000 +0.13%
Not much corporate news as Q1 earnings previews start to roll in. AAPL reportedly eliminating a small number of positions within its corporate retail teams. WMT cutting more than 2K jobs at its e-commerce warehouses, though Bloomberg report noted impacted employees may find other roles at the company. MU said shipments and operations unaffected by cybersecurity review in China. TECK reportedly willing to consider offers from potential acquirers after it completes the spinoff its steelmaking coal business. WBD reportedly near deal for a new online TV series based on Harry Potter. EHC helped by positive takes on new CMS updates. AYI earnings beat but management cautious on slowing order rates and changing C&I lending environment. AI hit by short-seller report alleging accounting issues. LNN hit by weaker international project business and seasonal volume shifts.
February JOLTS job openings came in lower than estimates, falling below 10M for the first time since May-21. Treasuries rallied following the print given potential Fed implications as softer labor market trends add some validation to the market outlook for rate cuts (but also heighten growth concerns). March employment report to provide additional labor market insight on Friday, though market will be closed for holiday. Street looking for a 240K increase in nonfarm payrolls following a 311K gain in the prior month. Normal weather expected to contribute to the slowdown in payrolls growth, while previews flagged seasonality as supportive. Also some discussion about how the report likely won't reflect the impact from the recent banking turmoil.
Negative macro surprise momentum (ISM manufacturing, JOLTS, IP) was the big directional driver today and weighed heavily on some of the more cyclical pockets of the market. No reprieve from the sharply lower rate backdrop that helped risk sentiment near the end of Q1, particularly in terms of big tech and other growth plays. Fits with all the concerns about the recession signaling from yield curve inversion, along with the more recent scrutiny surrounding the collapse in money supply growth and tightening lending standards (which are only expected to tighten further in the wake of the recent bank turmoil). Growth fears also play into the earnings risk theme, particularly given skepticism about the resilience of 2H estimates.
US equities finished lower in Tuesday trading, ending not far from worst levels after an uneventful afternoon session. S&P declined after logging gains in seven of past eight sessions. Energy stocks pulled back after a big Monday rally. Industrial metals, machinery, building products, E&Cs, banks, chemicals lagged as well. FANMAGs were mixed. Exchanges, HPCs, MedTech, pharma, software, dollar stores, precious-metals miners were among the outperformers. Treasuries were firmer with the curve steepening. Dollar was weaker on the major crosses; sterling hit a 10-month high. Gold ended up 1.9%, finishing at second highest close of the year (and third-highest since Aug-20). Bitcoin futures were little changed. WTI crude ended up 0.4% after rallying 6.3% yesterday on the back of the surprise OPEC+ production cut.
U.S. Market Recap: Dow (0.59%), S&P 500 (0.58%), Nasdaq (0.52%), Russell 2000 (1.81%)
Not much corporate news, with the week likely to be quiet ahead of Q1 earnings season unofficially starting with the banks late next week. TSLA reported Q1 deliveries of 423K, largely in line with consensus, though also some discussion about recent trend of excess production over deliveries. GM reported Q1 sales up 18% y/y to ~600K, though stock ended lower. MCD reportedly closing US corporate offices this week as it notifies employees about layoffs as part of broader restructuring plan. Federal Trade Commission ordered ILMN to divest itself of Grail, citing competitive concerns. PPG raised EPS guidance on better volumes, prices. A lot of M&A headlines. LSI combining with EXR in $12.7B deal. OVV purchased additional Permian and Midland assets. EDR agreed to acquire WWE at an EV of $9.3B. Bloomberg reported APLS has attracted takeover interest.
US ISM manufacturing missed, lowest headline since May-20 with new orders down and employment component lowest since Jul-20. However, prices paid fell back below 50, which is expected to receive outsized scrutiny given Fed focus on inflation, through broader contractionary reading fits with the broader earnings and growth risks themes. Fairly quiet elsewhere from a headline perspective. Biggest piece of news over the weekend was the surprise OPEC+ production cut totaling over 1.6M bpd that will take effect in May through end of 2023. St Louis Fed's Bullard suggested the resulting higher oil prices could complicate the Fed's work on inflation. Press reports discussed how bearish sentiment and positioning seems to be providing a contrarian tailwind for stocks. Also more discussion about how battered bank stocks may be starting to look attractive, lower tax refunds, reinstated discounts on autos in response to higher loan costs and China recovery traction.
Investors navigated an uneventful session to kick off Q2, with not much expected ahead in the holiday-shortened week as the market waits on key catalysts including nonfarm payrolls (7-Apr) and March CPI (12-Apr). Major market narratives remain largely unchanged. Bullish talking points revolve around expectations for a Fed pivot, positive macro surprise momentum and related soft landing expectations, cost-cutting actions to cushion corporate profit margins, signs of improvement in housing, well-anchored inflation expectations, depressed positioning and sentiment indicators, and banking-sector stabilization. Bearish talking points revolve around a higher for longer Fed in response to sticky services inflation and a tight labor market, 10-20% downside risk to consensus earnings estimates, stretched valuation metrics, cyclical stock underperformance, CRE as the next shoe to drop from aggressive Fed tightening cycle, geopolitics, and de-globalization.
US equities finished mixed in Monday trading, but ended back near best levels after a midday slump. Fairly quiet price action followed last week's solid performance, with Friday trading also capping off March monthly and Q1 gains for the S&P and Nasdaq. Energy stocks rallied alongside crude. Managed care, drug stores, A&D, pharma, P&C insurers were some of the other outperformers. Laggards included EVs (TSLA), airlines, trucking, semis, software, MedTech, banks, asset managers, and China tech. Treasuries were firmer with a bit of curve steepening. Dollar was weaker on the major crosses. Gold finished up 0.7% after eking out a fifth consecutive weekly gain last week. Bitcoin futures were down 0.1% in directionless trading. WTI crude settled up 6.3% on the back of the surprise OPEC+ cut after a 9%+ rally last week.
monday recap: U.S. Market Recap: Dow +0.98%, S&P 500 +0.37%, Nasdaq (0.27%), Russell 2000 (0.01%)
Very quiet news day. Weekly initial jobless claims saw yet another sub-200K print, fitting with the continued tight labor market theme. Fed's Collins said she could see some additional policy tightening before the Fed holds for the remainder of the year. Kashkari reiterated commitment to 2% inflation target, noting tweaks would damage Fed credibility. In corporate news, RH earnings missed with guidance weaker; company called out softness in the luxury home market. SMTC missed and guided below. OSH was up on waiting period expiration for CVS deal. WMG confirmed 4% workforce reduction. ROKU announced restructuring plan hitting ~6% of workforce. Financial press still focused on potential regulatory responses to recent banking turmoil. Reuters discussed market and economic fallout from tightening cycle. Bloomberg highlighted elevated stock-bond correlation. FT noted heightened focus on corporate profits as an inflation driver.
There was little in the way of a catalyst for today's trading. Investors in waiting mode ahead of PCE inflation (though should be largely de-risked) and month/quarter end tomorrow. Better risk sentiment surrounding US equities (S&P now up 7 of the last 9 sessions) chalked up to banking sector stabilization, Fed balance sheet re-expansion, big tech leadership, positioning, improving technicals, growth upgrades, expectations for renewed disinflation momentum and continued signs of consumer resilience. Fed pivot expectations continue to get a lot of attention though this also plays into heightened concerns about a credit crunch and additional collateral damage from the aggressive tightening cycle. Higher-for-longer Fed still a key component of the bearish narrative, along with the 10-20% downside risk to consensus earnings estimates.
US equities finished mostly higher in uneventful Thursday trading, dipping in the early afternoon but recovering into the close. S&P moved farther above the 4000 level. FANMAGs were mostly higher, with department stores, airlines, industrial metals, autos, software/hardware, cruiselines, and REITs outperforming. Oil services, building products, homebuilders, food, and credit cards lagged. Banks were mostly lower, with regionals now weaker WTD. Treasuries were mixed with the curve flattening. Dollar index was down 0.5%. Gold finished up 0.7%. Bitcoin futures were down 1.6%. WTI crude settled up 1.9%, near best levels.
thursday recap: - U.S. Market Recap: Dow +0.43%, S&P 500 +0.57%, Nasdaq +0.73%, Russell 2000 (0.18%)
March consumer confidence ahead of consensus with expectations component strong, though the labor-market differential narrowed amid weakening sense that jobs are plentiful. Richmond Fed manufacturing surprised to the upside with shipments a bright spot. Home prices down for a seventh straight month in January though decline a bit less than expected. Very quiet from a headline perspective. More reports about risks surrounding commercial real estate, with even high-end office buildings facing troubles. Also some discussion about how banking stocks look attractive following recent turmoil. End of student loan moratorium increasingly flagged as a potential consumer headwind. Debt ceiling back in the headlines after McCarthy expressed concern about lack of progress.
US equities were lower in very quiet Tuesday trading though finished just off best levels. Today's modest weakness came after stocks finished mostly higher on Monday. Social media, Internet, HDDs, semis among the laggards. Retail, apparel/accessories, cruiselines, chemicals, energy, machinery, China tech (BABA), airlines, drug distributors, and drug stores (WBA) outperformed. Treasuries weaker with some curve flattening following a big backup in yields on Monday. Dollar index down 0.4%. Gold ended up 1.0% after a 1.5% pullback on Monday. Bitcoin futures up 1.8%. WTI crude settled up 0.5% after rallying ~5% yesterday.
BABA up on plans to split into six business units. WBA beat on topline strength and reaffirmed guidance. MKC beat with margin improvement a bright spot and reaffirmed cost savings and FY23 guidance. LCID to cut 18% of headcount. PVH higher after it beat and guided above with takeaways focused on strength across brands and regions and margin expansion opportunities in FY23. SNX guided below the Street. AMC rallied after report AMZN a potential acquirer. LYFT boosted by news company's founders will shift to non-executive leadership roles and David Risher, who joined the company's board in July 2021, will become the new CEO and President. AAPL release of BNPL product hitting fintech names including AFRM.