Adrian (@adriandy) • Hey
Mountaineer & Explorer
Publications
- Climbing days...
- England, Germany & Italy looking sub par...Scotland's name on the trophy!!
- 😁I post to do zkSync bridge txn to overkill others
trick👇
🌉Use only official bridge
⌚6-9AM IST
⛽less than $3
🫠Other bridges like Layerswap, orbiter will charge $2-2.5fee
😉So if u bridge from official bridge during 15 gwei u pay same but from ETH⛓️
💙Like
🔁RT
👀Proof
https://twitter.com/CryptoTeluguO/status/1695261432689168622
- Back in BCN, I love this city!!!
- Coffee time.
- I've been labelled a social introvert! Who would have thought! :)
- Climbing day, climb, espresso, chat, espresso, chat, climb.
- Shit to get done today!
- Memories....can't wait for winter!
- Bilbao is buzzing, El Tour starts here. #ElTour2023
- Ensaimadas in Barcelona. IYKYK
- Run down towards the Museum of the Future, lovely day.
- Trail running through Wadi Haqab, warm but lovely in the shade.
- Days are made for this.
- Wadi Ghalilah, mountains looking stunning although temps are rising.
- Be careful where you sit or sleep...🙂
- On the Starbucks sachets for todays hike. Sometimes you got to take what you can!!
- Woh Village
Village hike down into Wadi Litibah
- Hebs Village - UAE
Hebs Village hike in Ras Al Khaimah, UAE
- Going for the relaxed Friday mode. 🙂
- Nightfall came in quickly, head torch to finish up. Breezy and mild temps. #RAK #UAE
- Hiking in the late afternoon, grab anytime to be in the mountains! #RAK #UAE
- Camping in Al Sanat village.
- $ARB PRICE SCENARIOS 🦅🔵
Investor price* → Market Cap 85M - ARB $0.07
Pessimistic → Market Cap 360M - ARB $0.30
Moderate → Market Cap 780M - ARB $0.65
Optimistic → Market Cap 1.4B - ARB null.20
Ecstatic 🎉 → Market Cap 3.0B - ARB $2.50
@Arbitrum Thread 🧵 - Let's estimate 🧠
$ARB is launching in 6 days
Snapshot Date: Feb 6th 2023
Many active DeFi got this airdrop (12% of the total supply)
How much could $ARB be worth a few days after launch?
1/18
Arbitrum One is the biggest Ethereum Layer2 blockchain in the space, by TVL and market share
• Market share: 55%
• TVL: $3.7B
2/18
Today we will roughly try to estimate $ARB price valuation a few days after launch - after the dust settles. By using:
• Total & initial circulating supply
• Market Benchmarks
• Percentage airdropped
3/18
TOKENOMICS
• Team & Advisors: 26.94%
• Investors: 17.53%
• Treasury: 42.78%
• Airdrop to users: 11.62%
• Airdrop to Arbitrum DAOs: 1.13%
4/18
TOKEN SUPPLY
• Total supply: 10B tokens (10,000,000,000)
• Circulating supply on 1st day: roughly 1.2B (1,200,000,000)
~12% of total supply
User airdrop is immediately unlocked. It's safe to assume that Airdrop to Arbitrum DAOs will not enter the market right away
5/18
AIRDROP CRITERIA
• Conducting transactions during 2-9 distinct months
• Transaction frequency & interaction (4-100)
• Arbitrum Nova activity: 3-10 transactions
• Bridging to Arbitrum & Arbitrum Nova
• Transaction value: $10k-$250k
• Providing liquidity: $10k-$250k
6/18
🔗 Check your eligibility here: arbitrum.foundation
🚨 Careful with scam links, always get your link from @Arbitrum twitter
Now, let's try to make scenarios for $ARB's price 👇
7/18
FDV AND MARKET CAP MEANING
• Fully Diluted Valuation (FDV) = total supply * token price
• Market cap = circulating supply * token price
With $ARB numbers:
FDV = 10B * token price
Market cap = 1.2B * token price
Token price = ❓
8/18
SPECULATING INVESTOR'S PRICE
According to Crunchbase, Offchain Labs raised 120M.
Investors are getting ~17% of the token supply, which is around 1.7B tokens.
If they bought 1.7B tokens for $120M, then that's around $0.07 per ARB. Pure speculation 👀
9/18
The best benchmarks for $ARB are Optimism and Polygon, but we can also work with other chains. Let's compare:
• Polygon $MATIC
• Optimism $OP
• Fantom $FTM
• Solana $SOL
10/18
Optimism $OP - the 2nd biggest Ethereum L2
• TVL: $950 million (DefiLlama)
• FDV: $10.8 billion
• Market cap: $800 million
If $ARB had this FDV, its price would be ~null.08
11/18
Polygon $MATIC
• TVL: null.05 billion
• FDV: $11.8 billion
• Market cap: $10.7 billion
If $ARB had this FDV, its price would be ~null.18
12/18
Fantom $FTM
• TVL: $445 million
• FDV: null.4 billion
• Market cap: null.2 billion
If $ARB had this FDV, its price would be ~$0.14
13/18
Solana $SOL
• TVL: $245 million
• Market cap: $7.7 billion
• FDV: $10.9 billion
If $ARB had this FDV, its price would be ~null.09
14/18
Summarizing:
• $ARB with the FDV of $OP: null.08
• $ARB with the FDV of $MATIC: null.18
• $ARB with the FDV of $FTM: $0.14
• $ARB with the FDV of $SOL: null.09
15/18
If the market prices ARB at the same level as OP and MATIC (~10B FDV) then token price could be ~null.00
In contrast, for ARB price to be $3.00, its FDV needs to be 3 times the size of OP's.
Yes, Arbitrum has two times Optimism's TVL, but I don't know if that is enough.
16/18
PRICE SCENARIOS
Pessimistic → Market Cap 360M - ARB $0.30
Moderate → Market Cap 780M - ARB $0.65
Optimistic → Market Cap 1.4B - ARB null.20
Ecstatic 🎉 → Market Cap 3.0B - ARB $2.50
17/18
The first hours of trading will probably be a mess, so expect volatility.
These numbers are just a price iteration and comparison to what's already out there. I don't expect them to make sense the first day of trading.
18/18
LIQUIDITY
Remember Optimism partnered with Wintermute for liquidity on $OP launch; we should wait to see how Arbitrum does it. I think they will surely take care of initial liquidity.
At which price would you sell $ARB?
⚡️ Join me on Telegram for lightning-fast alpha notifications: https://t.me/OlimpioAlpha
👥 Also, lots of DeFi and Airdrop talk is going on inside Earndrop's server, join here: https://earndrop.io/discord
- Some impressive wadi rock formations, you don't want to be stuck in here when the rains come. #RAK #UAE
- Here's what I found in the official documents,
Where the collection and MIRRORS have the greatest weight,
So people follow each other, collect and forward likes,
You're going to have a huge increase in weight.
Leave your LENS and let's start with interpass!
- Jebel Jais via Wadi Litibah. #RAK #UAE
- Hebs village path. #UAE #RAK
- Winter is not over, take the chance while you can.
- Some great ledge walking at Leopard Canyon in the UAE. #RAK #Hiking #mountains #UAE
- Getting warmer by the day, winter is definitely over in the UAE!! #mountains #Hiking #UAE #RAK
- They may be small but they pack a punch!! #Scorpion #UAE
- Some days someone just leaves you a clue to the way.
- Back into the mountains at the weekend for some wadi exploring. #RAK #UAE #Dubai #Mountains #Hiking #Wadi
- Snow showers passing through, early morning gorgeous skiing weather. #Snow #Ski #Scotland #mountains
- Gorgeous sunrise over Wadi Ghalilah. #RAK #Mountains #Sunrise #UAE
- Route up to Jebel Jais through Woh village in Ras Al Khaimah. #RAK #UAE #Mountains