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- 2、Alibaba has reduced its stake in Xiaopeng Motors, decreasing its ownership from 12.49% to 9.24%. Additionally, in the case of Quick-Go Taxi, the stake has decreased from 10.09% to 9.88%. This move suggests a comprehensive divestment in these investments by Alibaba.
3、South Korea has raised the capital gains tax threshold for major shareholders from 1 billion Korean won to 5 billion Korean won. Upon hearing this news, I was reminded that many capitalist countries impose capital gains taxes on stock investments. Earlier, an American friend mentioned to me how she envied Chinese stock investors for not having capital gains tax, finding the annual tax filing process in the United States cumbersome. I responded by saying that even if Chinese stock investors had this tax, the majority would likely not have the opportunity to declare it.
4、In order to hedge against negative market sentiment, Gree Electric Appliances Inc. of Zhuhai has announced a projected net profit of 27 to 29.3 billion yuan for the year 2023, representing a year-on-year growth of 10% to 19%. Additionally, the company responded to market concerns by stating that its increased stake in GREE Titanium is a concrete action in response to low-carbon sustainable development, demonstrating firm confidence in the sustained improvement of China's new energy development. This strategic communication artfully shifts the narrative, implying that those opposing Gree's acquisition are expressing doubt in the positive trajectory of China's new energy sector.
- 1、Recently, in addition to the rumors about Alibaba selling off Ele.me, there are also reports that they are considering selling Hema (Freshippo) and merging Youku into Alibaba Pictures. While some of these reports have been debunked, and others remain unclear, a clear trend emerges – Alibaba seems to be realizing the importance of streamlining its operations. The focus appears to be on consolidating around core businesses like e-commerce and cloud services. In my opinion, this strategic shift is long overdue. Many Chinese internet companies have historically expanded horizontally into various sectors after achieving success in one or two core businesses, aiming to capture as much market share and profit as possible.
2、The Jiyun Index (Euro) futures have experienced three consecutive days of limit-up, with a 30% increase. I hadn't noticed this futures contract before, but it seems like a useful tool for larger businesses engaged in foreign trade to hedge risks. However, smaller businesses might not be aware of or use such instruments and often navigate their operations based on current conditions. In other news, the United States is planning to assemble a multinational peacekeeping force, but the process will take some time. In the short term, many commercial ships are avoiding the Red Sea as Houthi militants are indiscriminately attacking any vessel passing through.
3、The LPR (Loan Prime Rate) for December has been released and remains unchanged. The one-year LPR is at 3.45%, while the five-year LPR stands at 4.2%. These rates, when due next year, will be used to calculate updated mortgage rates. There is a possibility of further reductions in the future, but they may not materialize in time for next year.
- 1、Incheon, South Korea, is providing an incentive of 100 million Korean won (equivalent to 550,000 Chinese yuan) for each newborn as part of efforts to encourage childbirth. It is possible that in the future, we might also adopt similar population incentive policies. Observing the effectiveness of South Korea's approach could provide insights for our own considerations. If even an incentive of 550,000 yuan does not encourage people to have children, it may pose challenges for our population policies.
2、Kuaishou has initiated a 2.5 billion Hong Kong dollar share buyback plan. In fact, Kuaishou's operational performance has been quite positive in recent years. If it were a U.S. company in the American stock market, the stock price would likely have soared. However, in the Hong Kong stock market, Kuaishou's stock is only half of its IPO price.
3、Meituan's stock has dropped below 80 Hong Kong dollars, reportedly due to online rumors suggesting that Douyin (TikTok) is inquiring about acquiring Ele.me, a food delivery platform owned by Alibaba. Alibaba is currently streamlining its operations, actively selling equity in various investment projects, and selling Ele.me aligns with their recent actions. Despite an internal source from Douyin stating there is no plan to acquire Ele.me, the credibility of this isolated denial remains uncertain.
- 1、Before the market opened today, there were widespread rumors that the core product of Luzhou Laojiao, Guojiao 1573, had reduced its price from 980 to 930, triggering a significant drop in the stock price. Later, the company responded, stating that the settlement price of 980 remained unchanged; they simply restructured the distribution of some backend profits. In layman's terms, after dealers initially sold the product for 980, the company used to allocate 50 yuan in profit to them. Now, to assist dealers in receiving payments promptly and encourage sales, the company is giving them the 50 yuan as soon as they take delivery. For the listed company, the overall profit hasn't decreased, but the cash flow is now more favorable towards the dealers.
2、Today, the three major stock exchanges made adjustments to the constituents of a large number of indices, including the SSE 50, SSE 180, SSE 380, STAR 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, CSI 1000, and other mainstream indices. There's no need for excessive interpretation; the adjustment of constituent stocks occurs once per quarter, specifically on the next trading day after the second Friday of March, June, September, and December.
3、Poly Developments and Holdings Group plans to repurchase 1 to 2 billion yuan worth of stocks, and additionally, major shareholders plan to increase their holdings by 250 to 500 million yuan, with a price cap of 15.19 yuan. This upper limit is 58% higher than today's closing price, indicating a need for stock protection. Poly is currently one of the real estate companies with the safest financial condition. However, it is still vulnerable to the relentless selling pressure from institutions. In the current market environment, discussions about real estate stocks have become a topic many investors are reluctant to engage in.
4、This morning, a U.S. F-16 fighter jet crashed after taking off from a mountain base. The pilot successfully ejected, and the aircraft sank in the waters of the Yellow Sea. Against the backdrop of a significant market downturn in the early trading session, some individuals have been circulating speculative connections, suggesting a potential link to China. It's quite perplexing to witness such wise remarks. There is no logical reason for us to actively engage in attacking U.S. military aircraft.
- 1、Tencent's major shareholder, Prosus, continues to reduce its holdings by 513,500 shares of Tencent stock, bringing its ownership percentage down to 24.99%. In the Hong Kong stock market, changes around whole number thresholds are usually disclosed. While 513,500 shares might not seem like a significant amount, just under 200 million in value, the real concern lies in the fact that Prosus, a South African entity, has been selling for a year and a half and still holds 25% of the stock. In total, they have sold nearly 4%. At the current pace, it would take at least six more years for them to completely divest their holdings. The market is feeling the pressure, and there doesn't seem to be any major institution willing to catch the substantial selling from Prosus.
2、Tencent is set to launch a heavyweight project, "Star of Yuanmeng," next Friday, with an investment of 1.4 billion. Some media sources suggest that this game is positioned to succeed "Honor of Kings" (王者荣耀), but such statements seem uninformed. A brief look at "Star of Yuanmeng" reveals it to be a party-style game, akin to "Animal Party" on Steam, and is fundamentally different from MOBA games. Nevertheless, it's reported that "Star of Yuanmeng" has already garnered over 20 million pre-orders, indicating significant expectations for this highly-anticipated project.
3、Apple plans to produce over 50 million iPhones in India, accounting for a quarter of its total production. This move is likely to take away a portion of domestic orders in China, which poses a challenge for the Apple supply chain. Additionally, the Reserve Bank of India has raised its GDP growth forecast for 2024 from 6.5% to 7%, reminiscent of the rapid upward development we experienced twenty years ago with youthful vitality.
4、There's a recent hot topic on Snowball, where Duan Yongping expressed optimism about Alibaba and mentioned selling some put options with a strike price of $ 70. A put option is not a stock; it's an option contract that gives the holder the right to sell the underlying asset at a specified strike price within a certain period. In simpler terms, it could be seen as a way of expressing confidence in the stock and potentially buying at a lower price. After all, Alibaba's current price is $ 72, making the exercise of the option quite probable.
- 1、Zhou Shiping, the founder of Red Collar Group, has been sentenced to life imprisonment in the first instance. The verdict stated that he illegally absorbed deposits from 480,000 individuals, involving a total amount of 109 billion yuan. Additionally, he was found guilty of illegally using funds and engaging in fundraising fraud, amounting to 20.4 billion yuan. Red Collar Group was a prominent name in the P2P lending industry around seven to eight years ago, considered a top-tier platform. My wife had invested a couple of hundred yuan in the platform during that time, fortunately exiting before the platform's issues came to light. Zhou Shiping was perceived as a leading figure in the industry, known for his straightforward style. He even acquired an A-share company (Shennan Holding, now delisted), attempting to package Red Collar for an IPO—an endeavor deemed unfeasible.
2、Lithium carbonate futures collectively hit the daily limit up. Currently, it seems to be a technical rebound from oversold conditions, and whether there is a reversal needs further observation. Individual investors in commodity futures cannot participate in physical delivery. Therefore, by the end of the month, one month before the contract expires, individual investors are required to forcibly close their positions. From my observations, it often happens that retail investors are forced to close their positions at the end of the month, and the price rebounds in the next month. This is a mechanism that uses rules to exploit individual investors. That's why I don't engage in commodity futures trading; I only trade stock index futures, where at least retail investors can participate in cash settlement.
3、The concept of artificial intelligence has been experiencing new developments recently, leading to a resurgence in related sectors in the A-share market. One is Pika, which was mentioned last night, focusing on generating videos from text. The other is Google's latest release, the Gemini model, both becoming focal points in the global tech community. Traditional text-based conversations or image recognition alone no longer capture people's interest. The emerging narrative is centered around AI creating videos for you. However, it falls a bit short of my expectations. The videos generated by the free versions currently available resemble more of a slide-show-like texture rather than a polished video. It will likely take another 6-12 months of iterations before garnering responses like, "Hey, not bad!" from the general audience.
- 1、The chairman of BYD has proposed a share buyback of 200 million yuan. When I first saw this news, my initial reaction was to count the number of zeros, as subconsciously, I felt that for a company of BYD's scale, a buyback of 2 billion would be considered normal. However, after confirming that it was indeed 200 million, I don't have much to comment. Moreover, this 200 million buyback is prioritized for employee stock ownership and executive incentives, not specifically for maintaining stock prices. It seems more like a side move to purchase some shares for internal incentive programs. In that context, 200 million is not a small figure.
2、Today, ByteDance has initiated a buyback of internal company stocks at a price of $ 160 per share. With an estimated valuation of $ 268 billion, this buyback has already surpassed Alibaba's valuation. It's worth noting that ByteDance is not yet publicly listed, and its valuation may continue to fluctuate until its eventual initial public offering (IPO). However, this buyback demonstrates ByteDance's confidence in its own value. Comparisons with industry giants like Alibaba and Tencent highlight ByteDance's competitive position in the technology sector.
3、Today, the gaming and media sector showed strong activity, primarily driven by the overseas success of the Pika software, the project started by the second daughter of the immigrant boss mentioned a few days ago. Pika differs from previous AI apps in that it supports video generation from text input or images combined with text input. Currently in beta, the entire system is built on Discord, which is inaccessible from within China due to the blocking of Discord by the national firewall.
4、The latest mystical phenomenon in the A-share market involves the collapse of the "Mahjong Concept." This concept revolves around creating a new sector comprised of listed companies whose names include the characters for East, West, South, North, Red, Green, White (resembling the suits in Mahjong tiles). Similar to the previous "Dragon Phoenix Auspicious" trend, this approach disregards rationality, eschews data analysis, and is driven by speculative consensus. Despite a promising performance earlier in the day, a sudden sell-off ensued after 1:30 PM, causing stocks that were trading at their daily limit-up to plummet to the limit-down before the market closed.
- 1、Noah Wealth and JD.com are embroiled in a heated dispute on social media over a 3.5 billion yuan matter. The incident originated when a company, a few years back, falsely claimed to have outstanding receivables from JD.com. This company went to the extent of forging JD.com's official seals and even had individuals impersonate JD.com employees, orchestrating a conspiracy to deceive Noah Wealth into granting them a loan. Noah's due diligence was insufficient, failing to detect the deception. Furthermore, some of its employees were involved in bribery, collaborating in the fraud, and have since been tried and imprisoned. This has resulted in a bad debt of 3.5 billion yuan. Unable to bear such a significant financial blow, Noah Wealth has taken legal action against JD.com, seeking compensation. JD.com's response implies, "You made a foolish mistake; the loss is yours to bear. Don't blame us." The entire incident is inherently dramatic, and if a director were to turn it into a comedy film, it would undoubtedly be quite entertaining.
2、The number of elementary school students in South Korea continues to hit new lows, with only around 350,000 new births annually. At this rate, by the year 2100, the country's population may be less than half of its current size. Such a decline in population could have profound and far-reaching implications for South Korea's society and economy, impacting various sectors including chaebols (large family-owned business conglomerates) as the demographic landscape undergoes significant changes.
3、Today, many people are discussing the news of someone winning the first prize with 50,000 tickets. In simple terms, an individual spent 100,000 yuan to purchase 50,000 tickets with the same number and won the first prize. It's worth noting that this first prize is not the one with a jackpot of 5 million; the amount is lower, with each ticket yielding 4,475 yuan. The total winnings from the 50,000 tickets add up to over 200 million yuan. Additionally, due to the relatively low amount per ticket, no taxes need to be paid, and the winner can take home the entire sum.
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2、Tesla's Cybertruck has officially started deliveries, becoming the global industrial focal point of this weekend. According to media reports, there are three versions available, with a base price of $ 60,990 (approximately ¥440,000), a fully equipped version priced at $ 100,000, equivalent to over ¥700,000.
3、I'd like to share a candlestick chart with you – the decline has been quite remarkable. Over the past three months, it has dropped from 240,000 to 100,000 as of this Friday. This chart represents the trend of the main contract in lithium carbonate futures.
4、Gold prices are approaching historical highs. Back when the renminbi depreciated mid-year, I recommended allocating some investments to gold. Now that the U.S. has reached the peak of interest rate hikes, there is a widespread expectation among institutions that the Federal Reserve will cut rates in May next year. Furthermore, the consensus is for a total decrease of 1.25% throughout 2024, tapering off to an annual rate of 4% by the end of the year. Bitcoin has been consistently rising lately, surging from 17,000 at the beginning of the year to 40,000 now. Chinese investors may want to consider substituting gold for some of their current holdings.
First and foremost, a significant development is that Guoxin Investment has initiated investments in the CSI Guoxin Central Enterprises Technology Index ETF. This isn't a pending purchase; rather, it was executed last Friday. On that day, two thematic funds focused on central enterprise technology experienced substantial volatility in trading volumes, as evident in the screenshot I've provided, showing volumes approximately 7-8 times higher than usual.
5、Morgan Stanley has lowered its target price for Alibaba to $ 90, signaling a cautious outlook for the company, which has been on a continuous downward trajectory. The days of Jack Ma's exuberance on the Shanghai stage seem like a distant memory, merely three years ago, showcasing the rapid rise and fall in the landscape of the internet industry. One of Alibaba's major challenges is the absence of an absolute moat. While Tencent may not compete effectively with Douyin (TikTok), its stronghold in communication and social networking remains unassailable. Alibaba's once seemingly formidable empire in e-commerce appears more fragile, as competitors such as JD.com, Douyin, and Pinduoduo all have the potential to make significant inroads in this domain.
- 1、The national centralized procurement of artificial intraocular lenses has been completed, with both domestic and foreign enterprises actively reducing prices. The overall reduction is around 50-60%. Although this reduction is still significant, the current procurement landscape is not as alarming as the initial rounds, where prices saw drastic drops of 80-90%. At that time, media coverage was supportive of the aggressive price reductions.
However, adopting an across-the-board price reduction strategy poses challenges. Even with additional costs in the pharmaceutical sales process, it is unlikely for pharmaceutical enterprises to accept reductions of 80-90%. The rule of winner takes all in the bidding process used at that time could have forced pharmaceutical companies to cut costs excessively, ultimately leading to negative consequences for the industry's development. Striking a balance between price reductions and the sustainable development of the industry is a critical consideration in the current procurement scenario.
2、Today, the stock of Xinyada (信雅达) hit the limit-up, but the reason behind it seems somewhat unconventional. It's not because the company itself has shown exceptional performance, but rather due to the fact that Chairman Guo Huaqiang's second daughter, Guo Wenjing, is a rising entrepreneurial star in the United States. She founded Pika, the currently popular artificial intelligence app in the U.S.
This connection might sound noteworthy, but in reality, Chairman Guo Huaqiang has long since immigrated, and his daughter Guo Wenjing was born and raised in the United States, holding American citizenship. With such a background, it's improbable for her to return to China for development or inject Pika into a Chinese A-share shell. It raises questions about what the shareholders of Xinyada might be expecting in this situation.
3、The expected bond trading data in the United States suggests that the Federal Reserve is likely to implement its first interest rate cut of 25 basis points in May next year. It's noteworthy that the Chinese yuan has appreciated by over 2% against the U.S. dollar. However, it's important to be cautious in attributing this solely to the yuan's strength. Rather, it is influenced by the U.S. dollar index, which experienced a 3.2% decline in November, leading to a global rise in currencies against the U.S. dollar. The yuan's relatively modest increase is a part of this broader trend.
This also explains why the yuan's exchange rate has risen, yet foreign enthusiasm for buying A-shares remains subdued. When the U.S. dollar begins to depreciate, there is a widespread demand for a loose rebound in global capital markets. Hence, there may not be a compelling reason for foreign investors to focus exclusively on buying A-shares in this scenario.
4、The passing of Henry Kissinger evokes deep reflections. In my childhood, whenever his name was mentioned on television, it was always accompanied by a fixed descriptor: "old friend of the Chinese people." One of his most significant contributions to China was his instrumental role in facilitating the historic Sino-U.S. rapprochement during the 1970s, including President Richard Nixon's groundbreaking visit to China. Consequently, the general impression Chinese people have of Kissinger is positive.
However, as exposure to more information occurred, a nuanced understanding of him emerged. He revealed himself to be a highly complex individual, driven primarily by the pursuit of American interests and employing distinctive strategies. It happened that during that specific period, the interests of China and the United States coincided, portraying to us a benign and astute side of Kissinger.
5、Today, the PMI for this month was announced at 49.4, below the expansion-contraction threshold, and slightly lower than last month's 49.5. The data appears reliable, as both positive and negative aspects are reported, and the trend aligns with another PMI dataset published by Caixin.
- 1、Today, Didi experienced a system crash that lasted for over 12 hours, with anticipated losses of millions of orders and a transaction value of 4 billion yuan. While this amount may not be a significant financial setback for Didi, a major malfunction at the T0 level poses a massive impact on companies providing daily services. The crucial aspect is the potential loss of customers who, during that specific timeframe, sought to hail a ride but were unable to access services. These customers may be compelled to download and use emergency services from competing platforms. The reverse flow of users to rival platforms could result in losses on the scale of tens of billions.
2、Pinduoduo's third-quarter revenue reached 688 billion yuan, a remarkable 94% increase, far surpassing the market's expected 548 billion yuan. Earnings per share stood at 11.6 yuan, exceeding the anticipated 8.8 yuan, with a net profit of 17 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 37%. These figures, although denominated in Chinese Yuan, are impressive. Despite the internet industry facing a downturn and widespread consumer reticence, Pinduoduo seems unaffected, delivering explosive financial performance. In pre-market trading tonight, the stock is currently up by 15%.
3、The U.S. short-selling firm, Grizzly, has released a short report alleging that the artificial intelligence company, SenseTime, is most intelligent in exaggerating its revenue. SenseTime has not officially acknowledged these claims, and its stock price has only dropped by 4.8%, which is relatively moderate considering the circumstances.
4、There have been some developments in the Zhongzhi Group matter. Several affiliated wealth management companies have already remitted all annual salary and bonus income, including those of former employees. Subsequently, it is highly likely that commission refunds will be initiated. Additionally, when investors are refunded, deductions will be made for any previously received early-stage profits.
- 1、Maotai's ex-factory price has been raised by 20% over the past month, but the secondary market price for Feitian Maotai has hardly increased. Unlike the situation in 2018 when the ex-factory price rose by 20% and the market price followed with a 10% increase, this time the price hike seems a bit inexplicable. With sluggish consumption this year and Maotai sales in the market being just average, the sudden increase gives the impression of being policy-driven rather than being driven by supply and demand. Fortunately, the ones affected by this are the vested interests of dealers. Over the years, they have made a considerable profit alongside Maotai. It seems reasonable for them to contribute a bit during challenging times.
2、Securities Daily Front Page Commentary: Crack down severely on creators of stock market "micro-essays," and the blows must be substantial.
I feel that this seems to be a case of putting the cart before the horse. The problem lies in the inefficiency of various channels for disclosing information, leading to information asymmetry. This information gap, in turn, gives rise to insider trading. It is because of this information gap that "micro-essays" in the stock market can spread widely. For instance, the news about Changan Automobile investing in Huawei, these "micro-essays" started circulating last Thursday at noon, but the official announcement was not made until the weekend.
3、BYD falls another 3.67%, evidently yesterday's clarification failed to restore market confidence. Today, lithium carbonate futures prices also hit the limit down again, signaling a growing skepticism in the market about the electric vehicle industry's prospects next year. Here, the term "走衰" doesn't necessarily predict a year-on-year decline tomorrow, but rather a slowdown in growth. It's worth noting that BYD's profits surged by 130% in the first three quarters, and even with such high expectations, the stock price hasn't risen. The pressure for the coming year is indeed substantial.
4、With the decline in birth rates, the trend of population aging is intensifying in South Korea. It is projected that by 2050, the youth population will decrease to half the level observed in 2020.
- 1、The country is set to initiate the third round of central pork reserve procurement within the year. While the pork sector has navigated through its most challenging period, it has yet to display a clear upward trend at the moment.
2、Beijing Chaoyang District police have confirmed the initiation of a criminal investigation into Wealth Company, an entity affiliated with the Zhongzhi Group, for suspected illegal activities. Criminal coercive measures have been taken against individuals such as Mr. Jie. There is an unwritten rule in the financial world that law enforcement authorities refrain from proactively arresting individuals involved in financial scandals as long as they can manage the situation. They tend to monitor the company's management, attempting to recover funds while simultaneously working to appease affected clients. Only when it becomes apparent that recovery is unattainable do the police intervene and make arrests, providing a degree of closure for the victims - indicating that the responsible individuals are in custody, and the remaining process involves liquidating
3、On Friday, BYD's stock price experienced a significant 5% decline, reaching a new low since March 2022. This drop is attributed to BYD's initiation of a new round of price cuts and promotions, with discounts ranging from ¥3,000 to ¥10,000 per vehicle. Considering that BYD's profit margin per vehicle is just over ¥10,000, maintaining such aggressive promotional efforts is expected to substantially impact the profit levels for the fourth quarter. Consequently, on Friday, there was a flurry of selling activities, with a substantial outflow of funds as investors sought to exit their positions.
4、In October, lottery sales in China reached ¥473 billion, reflecting a remarkable year-on-year growth of 59%. Amidst a general downturn in various industries this year, the lottery sector stands out as a high-performing outlier. The return rates for Chinese lotteries typically range between 50% and 60%, with scratch cards reaching up to 65%, and sports lotteries going even higher, up to 75%. Essentially, lotteries represent a classic example of a negative-sum game. However, their advantage lies in their significant volatility, providing an imaginative space for dreams and aspirations, particularly for those struggling at the lower end of the socioeconomic spectrum.
5、Pediatric respiratory diseases are rampant, and the influenza sector continues to show strength. Public pediatric hospitals in Beijing are under continuous pressure, struggling to cope with the demand. Our family experienced a round of illness recently, but fortunately, the symptoms in our two children quickly improved. However, the elderly in the family have been dealing with persistent and recurring health issues. In my case, despite a strong immune response, I only had a runny nose for two days without a fever, indicating that the immune system fought off the virus before it could cause more severe symptoms.
6、Changan Automobile has officially confirmed its investment in Huawei's Intelligent Systems Business Unit (BU) company, specifying that Changan's stake will not exceed 40%. This aligns with earlier rumors suggesting a 35% investment at a total valuation of 250 billion RMB. This situation highlights why various short essays on China's capital markets persist despite attempts to suppress them. Often, these writings are not baseless rumors but rather ahead-of-the-curve predictions. The overall financial media landscape in China tends to be sluggish, with some outlets focused on obtaining official licenses and serving higher authorities, indifferent to readers' needs. Private media, on the other hand, may be hesitant and cautious, resulting in delayed reporting.
7、Tesla is providing its employees with FSD v12, an autonomous driving system that relies on neural networks. Tomorrow, the related sectors may experience a surge in response. Additionally, Elon Musk tweeted that the next Starship launch is scheduled to take place in 3-4 weeks.
- 1、The family of the late Lee Teng-hui fell victim to financial fraud, suffering a loss of 124 million Chinese yuan (NT$ 550 million). Lee Teng-hui passed away three years ago, and the so-called family is essentially comprised of his descendants. The investment project promised an annualized return of 8%, and while payments were being made, they were considered legitimate business transactions. However, if the payments could not be fulfilled, it is now labeled as financial fraud, whether it genuinely falls into that category is not something I have delved into. In summary, their investment seems to have resulted in financial setbacks.
2、Foreign media suggests that the recent turmoil at OpenAI may be due to a breakthrough in technology, with the development of an enhanced version of AI that could potentially surpass and dominate human intelligence. If the focus remains solely on commercialization, it may pose a threat to the safety of humanity. However, since this product has not yet been created, we cannot accurately gauge its capabilities. If, one day, AI goes out of control, leading to the collective demise of carbon-based life forms, there may be no remedy. At least, when silicon-based life forms venture out and colonize the Milky Way in the future, their history books might state that they were created by a group of foolish upright apes.
3、SpaceX plans to sell a portion of its stock in the primary market in December, with an estimated valuation of $ 150 billion. Achieving a valuation in the hundreds of billions before even going public suggests that launching rockets is a minor task for them.
4、Warren Buffett mentioned his will on Thanksgiving, stating that 99% of his wealth will be donated to a charitable trust after his death, with his three children as the trustees. Many people online speculate that this is a tax-avoidance strategy, underestimating the scale of the Oracle of Omaha. He has specified that within 10 years of his death, all this money will be donated, and his three children, as trustees, are not allowed to claim any management expenses.
- 1、Altman eventually returned to OpenAI, concluding the dramatic episode of boardroom conflicts. The board is likely to undergo significant changes, with the capital providers, having invested substantial amounts, expected to play a more active role. After all, as a pre-IPO company with a valuation in the billions, they won't allow external interference to disrupt proceedings.
2、Last night, a major event unfolded with Binance as its focal point. Binance's Zhao Changpeng reached an agreement with U.S. judicial authorities, admitting guilt and paying a fine of $ 4.3 billion. He voluntarily appeared in a Seattle courtroom in the United States to confess, facing money laundering charges. Despite being a Canadian citizen, Zhao had been operating a company in Dubai, United Arab Emirates, for the past four years and refrained from traveling freely due to fear of global pursuit by the United States.
3、SHEIN, a major player in China's cross-border e-commerce, plans to go public in the United States with an estimated valuation of up to $ 90 billion. SHEIN, founded by a post-80s entrepreneur from Shandong, initially started as an SEO (Search Engine Optimization) specialist for a foreign trade company. Recognizing the profitability of cross-border e-commerce, the entrepreneur sourced clothing from Guangdong, selling it to the United States. Over time, SHEIN has evolved into a highly regarded fashion retailer among American youth. In the A-share market, there are also concept stocks associated with SHEIN, as several Chinese companies provide operational services for SHEIN's supply chain.
4、Eight closed-end funds on the Beijing Stock Exchange are nearing maturity after a two-year investment period, with an average return rate of -17%, although there has been a recent uptick. Additionally, the number of registered accounts on the Beijing Stock Exchange has reached 6.26 million.
5、Shenzhen has lowered the down payment ratio for the second home to 40%. While this might have been considered significant news a few months ago, it now seems to be just a routine update. The continuous adjustments in favor of homebuyers each month and week make prospective buyers more inclined to wait. The real estate market has shifted from being constrained and pressured a few years ago to a more buyer-friendly environment.
6、The China National Seed Group has issued an apology letter to investors, disclosing that the group's book assets amount to approximately 200 billion, while the net liabilities, excluding guarantees, range from 420 to 460 billion.
- 1、Today, Bloomberg reported that there might be a contraction in credit scale domestically. However, this was quickly refuted at multiple levels, with official statements and institutions asserting that Bloomberg had "misinterpreted" the policy. Currently, maintaining the credit scale at the current level is considered the minimum requirement and a bottom line, and it "should not decrease."
2、Real estate has two positive developments: the successful overseas debt restructuring of Sunac China and regulatory authorities planning to formulate a whitelist of 50 real estate enterprises to facilitate credit relief. By the time you saw this news, the market had already experienced an uptick, but the real estate sector's bottoming out is far from over.
3、The latest report from Ernst & Young (EY) indicates that the financing amount for A-share IPOs this year will see a 40% year-on-year decrease. However, the Shanghai Stock Exchange (SSE) and the Shenzhen Stock Exchange (SZSE) still maintain their positions as the first and second in the world in terms of IPO financing.
4、The UK regulatory authority has approved the application of the Casgevy therapy developed using CRISPR gene editing technology. I'm not entirely sure about these terms myself, but I do know that the concept of gene editing will likely receive a boost tomorrow.
5、Douyu CEO Chen Shaojie has confirmed his arrest by the Chengdu police around November 16, 2023. The official reason for the arrest has not been received as of now. Given this situation, it may have a significant adverse impact on Douyu's reputation, business, and operational performance.
6、The Chinese yuan exchange rate continues to rise and has reached around 7.14. Today, northbound funds briefly net purchased 5 billion yuan, but in the afternoon, they pulled back, with a final net inflow of only 140 million yuan at the close. Previously, when discussing the shift in foreign investment sentiment towards A-shares, I considered three possible reasons: a depreciation of the yuan, a pessimistic outlook for A-shares, and other factors. Now, with the elimination of the currency exchange rate factor, if foreign capital continues to sell off even when A-shares are on the rise, then it must be due to other reasons.
- 1、LPR (Loan Prime Rate) has announced the interest rates for November, with both the 5-year (red line) and 1-year (blue line) terms remaining unchanged. With only two months left in the year, if there is no reduction next month, next year's mortgage rates will be limited to the benchmark rate of 4.2%.
2、The landscape of short dramas is changing rapidly lately. The market size for short dramas in 2022 was just under 20 billion, and now, it's expected to surpass 30 billion this year. A popular trend is the "投流" business model, where investors collaborate on a short drama and then independently promote it through platforms like Douyin (TikTok) with self-funded advertisements. If, for instance, an investor invests 1 million and the drama gains popularity, they could potentially recoup 1.1-1.2 million on the same day. However, it comes with risks, similar to stock trading. As mentioned before, the spending on advertising, which constitutes over 80% of the revenue, operates on a similar principle.
3、The Argentine presidential election has concluded with the victory of the far-right candidate Milei. While many domestic netizens might not be familiar with him, the nickname "Argentina's Trump" gives a general idea of his political stance. One of his most prominent campaign proposals is to abolish the Central Bank of Argentina and reform the country's currency due to the skyrocketing inflation in recent years. I present to you a monthly candlestick chart depicting the exchange rate of the US Dollar against the Argentine Peso.
- 1、Three ministries: Treat non-state-owned real estate enterprises equally and reasonably meet financing requirements. Do not withhold, withdraw, or reduce loans for real estate companies operating normally. This level of news is unlikely to have a significant impact on the current real estate sector.
2、There are online allegations that the short video platform Reelshort, which has expanded overseas, is suspected of buying rankings and engaging in fraud. The reason is that although it ranks first on the free app chart, its discussion and engagement on platforms like X and YouTube are relatively low. On X, there is almost no discussion with English accounts, and on YouTube, Reelshort's account has 280,000 subscribers, with most video views ranging from 3,000 to 6,000.
3、Alibaba's office responds to media attention, expressing unwavering confidence in Alibaba and stating that Jack Ma will continue to hold Alibaba stocks for the long term. The big boss has also started to speak clichés, perhaps similar to retail investors believing in the country's prosperity and practicing long-term investment in the Nasdaq.
4、CATL (Contemporary Amperex Technology Co. Ltd.) repurchased 188 million shares with a cost ranging between 179.53 and 181.16 yuan. This can be considered as the initiation of their buyback plan. Their repurchase program has an upper limit of 3 billion yuan, which, in the context of CATL's overall financial transactions, may not significantly influence the stock price. Given the prevalent trend of share repurchases this year, I don't anticipate a substantial impact on the stock's trajectory.
5、Teaflower Group's actual controller plans to transfer no more than 22.11% of the company's shares, signaling a move to pass the company on to a new owner after achieving certain goals.
6、TikTok is testing a paid short video feature, causing excitement and interest among over a dozen listed companies collaborating with TikTok. I am skeptical about the prospects of this move because the competition in the free short video space is already intense. It's challenging to imagine users willingly paying to watch videos on the predominantly entertainment-focused TikTok platform. Similar attempts have been made on platforms like WeChat public accounts, which introduced paid content features several years ago. However, very few have successfully monetized through this method.
- 1、The Alibaba stock is set to face a decline in the pre-market by nearly 10% as the Jack Ma family trust plans to reduce its holdings, involving funds exceeding $870 million. While I typically disapprove of entrepreneurs cashing out and leaving, I can understand Jack Ma's decision. After facing public scrutiny and criticism, he has settled in Japan, making occasional media appearances during leisure activities. Since stepping back from his role, Alibaba's performance has been on a downward trajectory, lacking significant strategic decisions and losing ground to competitors like Pinduoduo and Douyin in the e-commerce sector. Jack Ma once aimed for Alibaba to be a centennial enterprise, but I now question whether it will even survive a century, given the rapid evolution of the internet industry.
2、A major fire broke out in the office building of Yongju Coal Industry in Lvliang, Shanxi, resulting in 26 fatalities and 38 injuries. This incident has gained significant attention, with leaders giving explicit instructions, indicating that a thorough investigation and punishment of those responsible will follow. However, for the coal sector, this event might not be a negative catalyst. Historically, major accidents in coal mines lead to tightened regulations and, in the short term, increased coal prices.
3、The results of the ninth round of national centralized drug procurement are set to be announced tomorrow. The pharmaceutical sector, which has already weathered various challenges, seems less affected by such news. The industry has undergone a significant correction, and the revised rules for centralized procurement are now more moderate, avoiding the winner-takes-all dynamics seen in the initial stages.
4、The second launch of Starship by SpaceX is scheduled for 9:00 PM Beijing time tomorrow, with global live streaming available.
- 1、Musk's Starship has been confirmed for its second launch this Friday. The last attempt was in April of this year, and due to a poorly designed base, all 33 Raptor engines ignited simultaneously at liftoff. The resulting debris damaged several engines, leading to the mission's failure. This time, optimizations and adjustments have been made, and they are ready for another attempt.
2、Xiamen: Families with more than one child (second child and above) purchasing their second home will be recognized as their first. While this may seem like a benefit for families with multiple children, in reality, it might not be. We've discussed this before in the comment section; endeavors encouraged or guided by policies in China often end up being unprofitable. In such a competitive and regulated environment, opportunities with benefits tend to be scarce unless they involve monopolies or restrictions.
3、Xiaomi's car has appeared in the MIIT directory, and the design has been exposed by the media. What do you think of its appearance? I don't drive, and I'm not very attuned to car designs; it seems quite ordinary to me, lacking distinctive features.
- 1、The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) has revised the rules due to the reduction in holdings by Longji Green Energy. In essence, a company under the HighLight group holds a 6% stake, making it a significant shareholder subject to regulatory oversight for holdings above 5%. By utilizing the securities lending mechanism, they can lend out a portion of the shares, ensuring that the remaining holdings fall below 5% and circumvent the restrictions on share reductions.
2、Sinopec's major shareholder plans to increase holdings by 10-20 billion.
3、Overseas Free App Rankings: Topping the charts is Temu (the overseas version of Pinduoduo), while in second place is Reelshort (a Chinese short video platform expanding abroad). I was curious, so I asked my American friends to download Reelshort to see what's inside. Surprisingly, as soon as they entered, the recommended show titles had an internal flavor.
4、Suo Gang counterattacked against the accusation from Lu Jiazui regarding the toxic land, claiming that the risks were communicated before the sale and that Lu Jiazui messed up the development in violation of regulations. He stated that if they want to claim compensation, they should meet in court. Lu Jiazui responded today, promising to disclose more details in court, although the announcement did not provide specifics.
At the same time, Lu Jiazui proposed that major shareholders would increase their holdings by 1 to 2 billion shares to stabilize the plunging stock price. Lu Jiazui has experienced a 10% decline in the past two trading
5、Vanguard Navigator exits China, the world's second-largest public fund, and has also withdrawn its stake in the joint venture company with Ant.
- 2. The media interviewed insiders of Suzhou High tech Zone, stating that the 10.5 billion yuan toxic land dispute is not as serious as the pollution reported by the media, and is essentially caused by chain commercial disputes caused by the downturn in the real estate market. This statement sounds more reasonable. Yesterday I mentioned such a big business, and it's unbelievable not to do basic risk investigation in the early stage.
3. Today, Inspur Information closed the limit up due to rumors that Nvidia will improve its chips in response to the latest chip sales restrictions and create a "Chinese market only" model, with the natural goal of continuing to do business and make money. The launch date is currently uncertain, but it is expected to be mass-produced before January next year.
4. After the release of the new regulations on securities lending, the margin was increased from 50% to 100%, resulting in a decrease in the scale of online securities lending from 69.5 billion to 66.9 billion, a decrease of 2.6 billion. This amount of money has a similar effect on the overall market as riding a bike and farting. Recently, the temperature in Beijing has dropped sharply. If the pants are thicker, they can still be covered and warmed up for a while just after being released.
- 1、There's another story that may sound like a joke but is actually true. Lujiazui purchased a piece of land from Su Steel for development. Since it was previously an industrial site, it required disinfection. Su Steel said no problem, even got a local institution to test it, and it passed. They then began construction, and when it was almost complete, they had an inspection by a verification institution. They found that industrial pollution exceeded the limit by 50 times. Whoever lives there will be in great danger. Everything had to be torn down, and the land had to be disinfected again. Lujiazui was in trouble, they filed a lawsuit for a claim of 10.5 billion yuan, and the case has been accepted. I've already seen announcements related to this story in more than five WeChat groups today. I didn't expect a project of this magnitude to easily trust the other party and not have the land retested by their own institution. I don't believe they can recover a 10-billion-yuan loss through litigation. In the end, they will probably have to reach a compromise.
2、Today, several government ministries summoned a group of real estate companies for a meeting. Towards the end of the afternoon, there was another news report from Reuters, stating that, under higher-level guidance, Ping An is planning to step in and help out with the troubled situation of Country Garden. As soon as this news broke, Ping An's stock in the Hong Kong stock market dropped sharply by 4%, leading the decline. The reaction in mainland China was a bit delayed, with Ping An's A-shares only starting to drop about three to four minutes later.
3、Longi Green Energy has received an investigation notice from the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) due to alleged irregular reductions in holdings by its shareholder, HHLR. In essence, HHLR acquired 6% of shares from an existing shareholder, making it a major shareholder, and there are restrictions on reducing such holdings.
- Lenny is heading to Devconnect and @lens/ethglobal İstanbul
- 1、Wuliangye has denied internal discussions about raising prices. Following in the footsteps of Moutai is a challenging task, as Moutai has a unique pricing structure. Moutai's factory price is 969 yuan, its official retail price is 1,499 yuan, and its market price can go well above 2,500 yuan, which creates significant price differentials. In contrast, Wuliangye's factory price and market price differentials are not as significant, so even if it decides to increase prices by 20%, it may not be as well-received in the secondary market.
2、Launched by two former executives from Apple's design and engineering teams, the first wearable device, Ai Pin, has been introduced. It's roughly the size of a badge that you can wear on your chest, offering some smartphone functionalities. It doesn't have a screen, but it includes a projection device that allows you to use your hand as a makeshift screen for simple interactions.
3、 (Jindi Group) announced a 30% decrease in signed contract area and a 45% decrease in signed contract amounts for the month of October. Previously considered a top-tier real estate developer, it appears that the current challenges in the real estate market have affected even prominent players. Recently, even China Vanke has been facing uncertainties, and in the real estate sector, perhaps only Poly Group dares to claim its relative safety.
4、The Xiaomi 14 has been on sale for a week and has achieved sales exceeding one million units, with widespread shortages across various sales channels. Some have questioned whether this indicates a consumption downgrade. However, it's important to note that Xiaomi has shifted its focus to the mid-to-high-end market segment. The Xiaomi 14 is priced in the range of 4,000 to 5,000 yuan, which is not considered low-priced.
5、The concept of web series is experiencing further growth. In addition to direct investments in app platforms, web content platforms that provide content scripts have also seen significant gains in recent days. Furthermore, web series production and streaming platforms have benefited from this market trend. Various stock summaries and charts related to these sectors can be found online, but I won't post them as I don't want to get into specific stock discussions.
6、Today, there are a couple of emerging hotspots in the market worth mentioning. First is the computing power sector. After the hype around ChatGPT, the computing power sector has shifted from anticipation to actual implementation. Based on current market feedback, there's a short-term shortage of computing power, giving computing power stocks pricing power. Another noteworthy development is a Reuters report stating that Baidu is proactively taking precautions against potential U.S. technology restrictions by shifting its orders from Nvidia to Huawei chip production.
- 1、The ninth batch of centralized drug procurement has resulted in an overall price reduction of 58%. However, after several years of such price reductions, these procurement initiatives no longer significantly impact the stock prices in the pharmaceutical sector. In fact, they might even be interpreted as having exhausted their negative influence on the sector. Today, the pharmaceutical and healthcare sector continued to rebound, with the ChiNext Index, which has a significant healthcare weighting, rising by 3%. It became the best-performing sector in broad-based indices, making it an attractive choice for those looking to capitalize on the rebound.
2、The news of the merger of top securities firms has caused a stir today, driving a 4% increase in the securities sector. I find this somewhat surprising, as I didn't expect the market to react this way. In the past, when North and South Railway merged, it combined two major monopoly groups, which helped them gain better pricing power. However, in the case of securities firms, there are over 100 in China, and even if a few large ones merge, it may not provide significant advantages.
3、Today's meeting by Vanke seems to have had a positive impact, with the stock price showing a rare 6% rebound. Shenzhen Metro and the Shenzhen State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission expressed strong support for Vanke during the meeting, indicating they are prepared to use reasonable means to maintain Vanke's financial stability. They also mentioned considering purchasing Vanke's overseas USD bonds. In my opinion, actions may speak louder than words. Vanke's USD bonds have already dropped to a 50% annualized yield. Wouldn't it be more favorable for the major shareholder to buy them up themselves?
- 1、China National Building Material Co., Ltd. (CNBM) plans to repurchase 4-6 billion shares, with a maximum repurchase price set at 32.3 yuan per share. The announcement also outlines the intended use of the repurchased shares, with CNBM planning to hold them for 12 months before considering selling to ensure a profit. If there are no suitable opportunities to sell within three years, the company will consider canceling these repurchased shares. This decision appears reasonable and contrasts with the practices of some other publicly traded companies that use repurchases to reward their executives.
2、Vanke is planning to hold an online meeting with financial institutions on the afternoon of November 6. The meeting will be attended by key figures, including leaders from Shenzhen State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission and the Chairman of Shenzhen Metro. The main purpose of this meeting is to address the recent fluctuations in the price of US dollar bonds, which have caused concerns among some institutions. The listed company is inviting major shareholders with state-owned backgrounds to participate in an effort to stabilize the situation and prevent any potential turmoil.
3、Tencent's stock price has climbed back above 300 Hong Kong dollars. The company has conducted 97 buybacks this year, accumulating a total repurchase amount of 35.78 billion Hong Kong dollars. This amounts to approximately 350 million Hong Kong dollars spent on repurchases during each trading day, effectively offsetting the selling by its major shareholder in South Africa. While Tencent's stock price performance may not have been stellar, the company appears to be acting responsibly and fulfilling a certain level of responsibility to the secondary market.
4、Apple did face some challenges in the third quarter. While the total revenue growth was sluggish, product sales were down by 5% compared to the previous year. However, their service revenue increased by 16%. Notably, Apple's revenue in the Greater China region decreased by 2.5%, raising speculation that it might be facing competition from Huawei in the market. Interestingly, even in regions where Huawei is not a significant presence, such as Europe and Japan, Apple's revenue dropped by 1% and 3%, respectively. Moreover, when breaking down their hardware business, the iPhone remains the sole product with increased sales.
- 1、According to the Sanlian Life Weekly report, property prices in Hong Kong have dropped by 15% compared to last year, and the transaction volume has also decreased by 40%. This might be the reason they are now exploring various methods to stabilize the real estate market, such as introducing immigration policies to attract mainland residents to buy properties.
2、Qualcomm saw a 6% surge in its stock price today due to its impressive performance in the third and fourth quarters. I believe this uptick is a significant indicator. While Qualcomm is an American chipmaker, its primary clients are Chinese smartphone manufacturers. This suggests that China's consumer electronics market might be on a path to recovery. Meanwhile, Xiaomi's stock price in the Hong Kong market also increased by 6%. Their latest product, the Mi 14, is selling like hotcakes and seems unstoppable. As I watch the stock price rise, I'm hopeful to recover from my losses. Cheers to all the Mi fans out there for their continued support!
3、Master Kong has recently announced a price increase for its popular drinks, Iced Red Tea and Iced Green Tea, which were my absolute favorite beverages until I turned 30. As I got older and became more health-conscious, I switched to low-sugar options like Yuanqi Forest. The price for the medium-sized package has been raised from 3 yuan to 3.5 yuan, and the 1L bottle from 4 yuan to 5 yuan. Considering the recent price adjustment of Moutai, I'm concerned that this might signal the beginning of a wave of price hikes. In the current economic climate, consumers might have to brace for these increases to combat deflation. It seems that even if we don't ramp up our consumption, prices might still go up.
4、Yum China Holdings, listed on the US stock market, has seen a 15% decline over the past two trading days. This is primarily due to the company not meeting its expected performance. The CEO mentioned that consumers are becoming more cautious in their spending, particularly on high-priced items. In response, the company is looking to adjust its pricing structure. However, considering that brands like KFC and Pizza Hut are now considered everyday dining rather than the upscale restaurants they were 30 years ago, this decline in spending speaks volumes about the broader economic pressures.
- 1、Saleth's car deliveries in October reached 14,506 units, a year-on-year increase of 20.41%. At first glance, this number seems low. However, considering that these are actual delivery numbers and not pre-order numbers, current deliveries might still be constrained by production capacity, preventing a rapid increase in sales. This news shouldn't have a negative impact on the stock price.
2、According to data from the JD.com platform, the initial sales of Xiaomi 14 surpassed those of the Apple 15PRO, setting the highest single product sales record on the platform in the past year. Xiaomi 14's initial sales were six times higher than that of Xiaomi 13. Due to the high demand, consumers have to wait in line for their orders to be shipped. Additionally, Xiaomi's stock price on the Hong Kong stock market also saw a rare increase of 20%.
3、Qingdao Beer Company recently reported an incident involving improper behavior by a worker. The incident began with a verbal dispute between a truck driver transporting raw materials and a loader. In retaliation, the loader urinated in the truck's material container, which unfortunately was captured by the truck's surveillance camera. After seeing the footage, the truck driver decided to post it online. Currently, the involved loader has been administratively detained. Although the announcement did not mention the outcome for the truck driver, it's expected that he will also face some form of penalty.
- 1、Today is the last day of October. In the interbank market, the annualized interest rate for a 1-day repo transaction has skyrocketed to 50%, 2-day to 30%, and even the 7-day reached 12%. This indicates that liquidity in the interbank market is becoming tight. As a result, insiders speculate that the central bank may further reduce the reserve requirement ratio in the near future.
2、After some time, Buffett has once again reduced his holdings in BYD's H shares, from 8.05% to 7.98%. Notably, the Shenzhen Stock Connect's largest net sell-off today was also BYD, with a net sell-off of 784 million. Despite all these negative factors, the stock price did not fall much. This reaffirms BYD's resilience in the market, truly deserving its title as the new king of the automotive universe.
3、The PMI data for October stands at 49.5, indicating an economic downturn, breaking the growth trend of five consecutive months. The economic challenges in China for 2023 have become increasingly evident. Compared to the prosperity at the beginning of the year, the main trend since the second quarter has been to cope and take stimulating measures.
- 1、Longi Green Energy reported a profit of 2.515 billion in the third quarter, a 44% decrease compared to the same period last year. Although the market had already been cautious about Longi's Q3 performance, the actual results were worse than expected, leaving many shareholders shocked. A closer look at the data revealed that the profit margin remained stable, but there was a significant drop in sales, and the company did not provide an explicit reason for the decline. Despite the chairman's plan to buy an additional 100 to 150 million shares to counteract the negative financial report, I believe it might not be sufficient to appease the market's concerns.
2、Haitian Flavor's profit declined by 3.24% year-on-year in the third quarter. Despite this, the company plans to spend 500 million to 800 million yuan on share buybacks. These shares will be used for equity incentives or employee plans. If they are not used within three years, they will be cancelled. However, considering the company's current performance, this incentive seems inappropriate. This behavior highlights the differences between Chinese and US stock buyback practices. In the US, companies regularly buy back shares. As stock prices continually hit new highs, the repurchased shares are cancelled, enhancing shareholder benefits. In contrast, in the Chinese A-share market, when stock prices plummet, companies often use a small amount of money to buy back shares to stabilize market sentiment. They then find reasons to distribute these shares to company executives, a sly move that displeases investors.
3、Midea Group's revenue increased by 7% in the third quarter, with a profit growth of 11%. The performance is stable and expected. However, I really don't understand the company's decision to go for an IPO in the Hong Kong stock market. It seems that the majority of minority shareholders are not in favor of this move.
4、Luzhou Laojiao reported a 25% increase in revenue and a 29% increase in profit for the third quarter. This performance is outstanding, especially given the subdued domestic consumption environment this year. Compared to industry giants like Maotai and Wuliangye, Luzhou Laojiao's growth rate and financial report quality are impeccable. If there's any potential concern, it's that Luzhou Laojiao has been under a stock incentive plan for the past three years, with this year being the last. It remains to be seen if any operational issues will emerge after these incentives expire next year.
5、In the third quarter, O-film achieved a net profit of 54.32 million, which is a significant improvement compared to the 2.4 billion loss from the same period last year. Thanks to its close collaboration with Huawei, the company has seen a rapid rise in market popularity. This marks the first time in the recent eight quarters that O-film has achieved non-GAAP profitability, with its gross profit margin returning to double digits, showing a positive trend.
- 1、In the third quarter, Sailes suffered a loss of 950 million yuan with a revenue of 5.6 billion yuan, declining by 47%. Despite the company's current poor performance, its stock price hasn't been significantly affected. This is mainly due to the sudden popularity of Huawei cars around the National Day, which has led to high expectations for its future, resulting in a stock price increase.
2、Fuling Pickles achieved a profit of 189 million yuan in the third quarter, an increase of 4.78% year-on-year. However, combining the previous two quarters, both its revenue and profit declined by around 5%. The sales of its flagship product, pickled mustard greens, were sluggish, and the highly anticipated radishes also had mediocre sales. Only the pickled vegetables showed decent growth, but the volume was not substantial. Despite the company's low debt and ample cash reserves, with a price-to-earnings ratio of 20 times, which isn't considered high, its hesitation in dividend distribution and stock buyback makes it seem overly conservative, reflecting the typical traits of A-share companies in China without maximizing returns for shareholders.
3、360 suffered a loss of 138 million yuan in the third quarter, accumulating a total loss of 369 million yuan over the first three quarters. Were it not for the fortunate wave of AI trend they caught in the first half of the year, the company would have had no other notable highlights. Additionally, the strategy of "Master Lu" in profiting from dividends in the Hong Kong stock market is very much in line with the consistent style of the 360 company.
4、East Money's third-quarter profit decreased by 7.7% year-on-year and 9.6% quarter-on-quarter compared to the second quarter. The performance of securities firms is closely related to fluctuations in stock market trading volumes. For instance, the trading volume in this year's third quarter fell by 20% compared to the same period last year, making East Money's 7.7% profit drop reasonable. Given that the trading volume in the third quarter decreased by 19% compared to the second quarter, a 9.6% profit decrease is also acceptable. As long as the market warms up in the future and the trading volume reaches over 1 trillion, a performance rebound is within reach.
5、Wuliangye achieved a profit of 58 billion yuan in the third quarter, with an impressive growth rate of 18.57%. This performance exceeded expectations, as many initially predicted an ideal growth rate of only 10-15%. It's puzzling how they managed to achieve an 18% increase in the current economic environment. In contrast, Yanghe saw a revenue growth of 11% and a profit growth of 7.5%. Considering Yanghe's product offerings in recent years, this performance seems more grounded.
6、Muyuan Shares reported a third-quarter profit of 937 million yuan, a decline of 88% compared to the same period last year. I have provided a pork price trend chart for your reference. In the chart, you can see three red lines, which represent the pig-raising costs for Muyuan in the first three quarters: 15.7 in Q1, 15 in Q2, and 14.5 in Q3. Currently, almost the entire industry is operating at a loss, with only Muyuan still turning a profit. As competitors and small-medium enterprises become unable to bear the losses and reduce production, the next cycle will emerge. However, this is contingent upon Muyuan's shareholders being able to withstand the market pressures and not being overwhelmed first.
7、Jiugui Liquor's third-quarter profit plummeted by 77% year-on-year. While the performance of premium liquors remains stable this year, the mid and lower-tier liquors truly reflect the downturn in consumer spending. In the liquor sector, Jiugui Liquor's stock price elasticity is considered high. Three years ago, its stock price surged tenfold, but it has now dropped by over 70%. For investors, this stock isn't suitable for long-term value holding; however, if one can accurately seize the market's fluctuations, there's potential for profit.
8、China Merchants Bank's profit in the third quarter was 38.1 billion yuan, an increase of 1.7% year-on-year. The performance was not as expected, which justified its decline this year. What seems unfair is that the growth rates of the Big Four banks are also in the 0-5% range, yet their stock prices haven't fallen like CMB's. While CMB's profit growth has decelerated, its growth rate is still in line with the Big Four. This discrepancy may be due to the market's different expectations for the future prospects of these banks.
9、Vanke A achieved a profit of 3.75 billion yuan in the third quarter, a decline of 22.5% compared to the same period last year. Despite the downturn in performance, considering the performance of other companies in the same industry, Vanke is still operating stably. Their financial condition is very healthy. In the third quarter, Vanke issued corporate bonds worth 2 billion yuan, with a face interest rate of just over 3%. Such a low borrowing rate indicates their good credit standing.
- 1、In the first three quarters, China Duty Free reported a revenue of 508.37 billion yuan, marking a 29.14% increase year-on-year. Its net profit was 52.06 billion yuan, growing by 12.49% from the previous year. The third quarter alone saw a 27.87% rise in revenue and a notable 94.22% growth in net profit. However, considering the pandemic's impact on last year's third quarter, this growth isn't very surprising. Based on the data, the estimated annual profit for China Duty Free is between 65-70 billion yuan. With its current stock price, the PE ratio is between 26 and 28, suggesting it's in a value range.
2、Li Ning experienced a 20% stock drop today. Upon further investigation, it was due to the company revising its growth expectations from above 15% to just under 10%. Since the latter half of this year, consumer statistics have been underwhelming, with every B2C business facing scrutiny. Companies with consistent performance, such as Moutai, face criticism for minor issues. However, for those that genuinely underperform, the market shows no mercy.
3、Tonight, numerous listed firms have unveiled stock buyback and increased holding plans. Notably, CATL (Ningde Times) has proposed a 20 to 30 billion RMB buyback. Around 20 other companies announced smaller buybacks, typically in the range of several hundred million. Companies with strong cash flow could use their available cash for these buybacks. If funds are insufficient, securing bank loans or issuing bonds is viable, especially with the prevailing low interest rates.
4、Tongwei Co., Ltd. has decided to cancel its 16 billion RMB private placement plan due to the sustained drop in its stock price, believing it's being undervalued. As a front-runner in the photovoltaic sector, Tongwei demonstrates integrity, unlike some other companies that might choose to finance or sell shares at low stock prices.
5、For the third quarter, China Life Insurance reported a net profit of 53 million RMB, marking a 99% decrease year-on-year. Interestingly, with its market capitalization nearing a trillion RMB, it managed to make just half a hundred million this quarter. It's also noteworthy that its valuation surpasses its peers, standing at four times that of Ping An Insurance. Typically, with such results, a significant stock price drop would be expected. However, after the second quarter's loss, China Life's shares barely fluctuated. Predicting its movement tomorrow remains uncertain. The specific reasons for this drastic decline are not fully disclosed, but a change in accounting standards, incorporating stock market gains and losses into the reports, might be a cause. It's known that China Life has stakes in several underperforming stocks. It's best to wait for more details before drawing conclusions.
6、India has initiated investigations into 40 Chinese solar panel companies on allegations of tax evasion. Often, when India investigates, companies can expect challenges. However, these Chinese companies have gained a reputation for intense domestic competition, leading to global unease. While logic dictates that one should reduce production during economic downturns, these Chinese businesses seem to think differently. Instead, they increase production, hoping to eliminate competitors during these tough times. Their goal? To thrive once the competition is out of the picture.
- 1、The Hong Kong Stock Exchange has announced a reduction in stamp duty from 0.13% both ways to 0.1%. In the past, whenever the market was buoyant, they couldn't resist raising taxes. However, in recent years, the Hong Kong stock market has plummeted, and reducing stamp duty now seems ineffective. The Hang Seng Index has broken critical levels, and the overall trend has deteriorated. It's evident to discerning eyes that international capital has withdrawn from the Hong Kong stock market. Arguably, even a 0.1% stamp duty is still high, especially when considering other markets have dropped rates as low as 0.05% in one direction. It might be time to reconsider strategies.
2、Today, Aimeike's stock price dropped by 12% due to its Q3 profit growth rate of 13%, which was below market expectations. This year, consumer-focused stocks have taken a hit. However, companies mainly collaborating with large institutions and the government have fared better. The government has been continuously launching projects to stimulate the economy and is more prompt in making payments. Recently, the government disbursed 1 trillion yuan to settle old debts, benefiting these businesses.
3、Tongwei shares reported a Q3 profit of 30.3 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 68%. Although the decline seems substantial, it's mainly because of the high base from last year. Still, earning 30 billion in a quarter is impressive. Over the past two years, the photovoltaic industry has seen aggressive capacity expansion, leading to fierce price competition this year. It's necessary to weed out companies that rely on borrowing for expansion, ensuring a better environment for the remaining firms.
4、Hengrui Pharmaceuticals reported a Q3 profit of 1.166 billion, up 10.5% year-on-year. While this performance might not be satisfactory and may lead to a stock price drop tomorrow, Hengrui's advantage is that its stock has already plummeted in the past two years. Most investors who wanted to exit have already done so. The remaining holders are mainly firm long-term investors and those not overly concerned with short-term fluctuations, so even if the stock continues to decline, significant changes are unlikely.
- 1、iFlytek's stock price plummeted today, with rumors circulating online that it might be due to inappropriate content in its educational devices. Even though iFlytek has a diversified shareholder structure, its name suggests ties to state-owned enterprises. I don't believe it would make such fundamental errors in content. As a leader in the domestic AI industry, minor technical issues shouldn't be blown out of proportion. Given the significant rise in its stock price in the first half of the year due to the AI trend, a correction seems quite natural.
2、The central government plans to issue an additional 1 trillion yuan in national bonds for 2023 in the fourth quarter of this year. The aim is to provide financial support to local governments for post-disaster recovery and reconstruction, as well as to enhance the country's disaster prevention and mitigation capabilities. This can also be interpreted as a strategy to boost infrastructure construction from another perspective, stimulating economic demand.
- 1、Recently, the Qingdao Beer company became the center of attention due to an incident involving an employee urinating. If you're not familiar with the situation, it's advisable to check out last night's news reports. Although the amount of urine in this incident is not enough to cause health issues, it undoubtedly tarnished the brand image of this consumer goods company. After a tumultuous weekend, it's expected that Qingdao Beer's stock price will be impacted at the opening next week. However, based on my observation, the negative effects of this incident seem less severe than the Twin River's clenbuterol scandal and might only lead to a brief stock price drop.
2、The Global Times recently reported that the tax department has conducted tax inspections on key Foxconn Group enterprises in Guangdong and Jiangsu, while the natural resources department has carried out on-site investigations of land use for Foxconn's key enterprises in Henan and Hubei. In short, it's a tax and land use investigation into Foxconn.
3、Kweichow Moutai reported a net profit of 16.8 billion yuan in the third quarter, representing a year-on-year growth of 15.68%. Compared to the second quarter's 15.1 billion yuan, it's an 11% increase. The initial target set at the beginning of 2023 for 150 billion yuan in revenue and 73 billion yuan in net profit attributable to the parent company seems likely to be exceeded. Despite a recent decline in stock price, Moutai has always been stably operated and rarely makes mistakes, so I was skeptical about any major issues arising. The current challenge seems to be that both domestic and foreign funds are selling off consumer stocks, which may be related to the overall market sentiment. Although the government indicates that economic data is improving, selling pressures in the market seem to be increasing.
4、The yield on the U.S. 30-year Treasury bond has risen to 5.1%. Recently, a popular topic on the internet was about an individual who, after years of working abroad, saved up 1 million dollars and bought a 30-year Treasury bond with an annual interest rate of 4.5%. He then decided to retire in his home country. With this arrangement, he can receive an interest of $45,000 every year, which is approximately 330,000 yuan at the current exchange rate, ensuring a comfortable retirement. Plus, he can leave the 1 million dollar principal to his children after 30 years.
5、22 provinces and cities have planned to issue special refinancing bonds, with the total amount currently exceeding 940 billion yuan. These funds are primarily used to refinance local hidden debts. Upon observation over the past few days, it seems that mainstream media mostly report these figures without in-depth commentary or analysis.
6、The China Securities Regulatory Commission encourages listed companies to distribute dividends rationally and strengthens disclosure requirements for those that do not. I understand the regulators' intentions. For those firms reluctant to give dividends, it's crucial for them to offer returns to the secondary market. However, I hope that companies would lean more towards stock buybacks and cancellations, rather than just relying on cash dividends.
7、The government has optimized and adjusted temporary export control measures for graphite items, which might stimulate the graphite sector. Previously, the prices rose due to export controls on germanium and gallium.
- 1、Today, both Muyuan Shares and Maotai experienced significant declines. While there are rumors that this is due to Maotai's third-quarter performance being below expectations, I have my doubts. It's evident that the consumer sector is being targeted. I had previously warned you that the liquor stocks might be impacted. In fact, companies primarily catering to C-end consumers have seen their stock prices drop recently. Foreign investors are leading the sell-off of these stocks, and domestic investors are following suit. In plain terms, it seems that both foreign and domestic investors are pessimistic about the prospects of a consumer recovery.
2、Today, Hu Xijin revealed that he lost another 7300 and claimed he had no additional funds to buy more shares. However, considering his potential earnings on platforms like Douyin and Weibo, even without considering advertising revenue, it's estimated that his annual income would be at least several million yuan. So, his statement of not having funds after buying 500,000 might not be entirely truthful. It's more likely that he's hesitant due to the market downturn. Typically, when investors spend an amount less than their annual salary, they remain relatively calm. Most seasoned investors invest within 1-3 years of their annual income, and only when it exceeds this range does their psychological stress truly escalate.
- 1、Today, the National Statistics Bureau announced the economic data for the first three quarters. The GDP for these quarters increased by 5.2% year-on-year. The growth rates for the first, second, and third quarters were 4.5%, 6.3%, and 4.9% respectively. If we focus solely on the third quarter's quarter-on-quarter growth, it stood at 1.3%.
2、Lao Hu shared his latest stock evaluation today. While he reported a loss of over 30,000, it's relatively small compared to his total investment of 480,000, with an overall loss of about 6-7%. Fortunately, he started with a smaller investment and added funds 4-5 times later on. If calculated based on his initial investment, the loss could be as high as 15%. What a way to unwind!
3、On Weibo, there's an account named "Duoyi Network", run by a tycoon named Xu Bo who claims he wants to have 50 children. I've been following his updates with interest recently. If you're curious as well, you might want to check it out.
4、The U.S. government has updated its export control regulations on AI chips, aiming to prevent companies like NVIDIA from exporting advanced computing chips to China. Normally, when such news breaks, the chip sector experiences some fluctuations. However, today it simply followed the broader market trend downward, without even a modest bounce in response.
5、WM Motor has denied rumors of bankruptcy. However, they did not address the widely-discussed topic regarding the whereabouts of the founder, Shen Hui, and whether he is still in the U.S. Shen went to the Munich Auto Show in early September, and now it's almost the end of October. If Mr. Shen makes an appearance in China, all the rumors will be automatically debunked.
- 1、Mei Nian Health experienced a significant drop today. From what I gathered, this seems to be largely due to the company's employee stock ownership plan which is set to expire on the 18th. Employees might look to liquidate their shares in the secondary market for their salaries. However, before they could make their move, the secondary market showed signs of instability.
2、BYD predicts a profit of 205-225 billion for the first three quarters, representing a year-on-year growth of 120-141%. Based on sales, the profit per car is about 12,000 yuan. This demonstrates excellent cost control by the company. The automobile industry benefits from economies of scale, where greater production and sales lead to lower costs. Recently, I read on Zhihu that BYD's latest recruitment drive attracted 120,000 resumes, pushing its total workforce close to 600,000, making it the top private enterprise in terms of employee count, surpassed only by large state-owned enterprises like oil and railway companies.
3、Recently, possibly under official guidance, there has been an increasing number of buyback plans from state-owned and central enterprises in China. Media reports indicate that the cumulative buyback plans from central enterprises this year have surpassed 600 billion yuan. However, this amount seems relatively small, equating to only about 80 billion USD when converted. In contrast, Apple's added buyback plan for 2023 alone amounts to 900 billion USD, which is 11 times the total of all central enterprises combined. If the Chinese A-share market aims to experience a sustained bullish trend like the US stock market, there must be a significant and consistent expansion of buybacks. Yet, it seems that the primary goal of A-share listed companies remains fundraising or cashing out, making this vision a distant dream for now.
- 1 、Today, Haitian Flavouring experienced a significant drop and made headlines. The major sell-off was attributed to foreign capital. The total trading volume for the day reached 1.7 billion, with foreign investors selling over 600 million and a net outflow of more than 400 million. This heavy selling pressure inevitably impacted the stock price. After the market closed, the chairman proposed a stock buyback plan worth 500-800 million, with the maximum buyback price set at 150% of the 30-day average price. However, my primary concern is how the repurchased stocks will be handled.
2、Several media outlets reported today that Shen Hui, the founder of Weima Motors, has fled to the United States, leaving the domestic company in crisis. While he mentioned on his Weibo that he would attend an auto show in Munich in mid-September, it seems that was just a cover-up. The issue only came to light recently, likely because internal efforts had been made to contact and persuade him to return over the past month. Now, some Weima car owners have expressed that the services for their electric vehicles are down, affecting their driving experience.
3、HSBC Holdings recently repurchased 197 million Hong Kong shares at a price range of 62 to 62.85 Hong Kong dollars. In fact, not only HSBC but also Standard Chartered and AIA have been actively buying back their Hong Kong shares lately. The current valuation of Hong Kong stocks is decidedly low, but there's no clear solution to the liquidity dilemma in the short term. How long this situation will last is uncertain. It's worth noting that although these firms have some operations in mainland China, they are not mainland-based companies. As a result, their stock performance has been much better than most Hong Kong-listed mainland firms, with HSBC's share price even nearing an all-time high.
4、Baosteel intends to buy back shares valued at 3 billion yuan, Kouzi Liquor has set a buyback range of 55 million to 110 million yuan, and the major shareholder of Hikvision plans to increase their stake by 200 million to 300 million yuan.
- 1、Li Gang, the chairman of China Duty-Free Group, has unfortunately passed away at the age of 54. While he held an important position in the company, the main shareholder of the company is the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission (SASAC). Li Gang was assigned from within the system and did not own shares in the company; he simply drew a salary. Hence, his passing is unlikely to have a significant impact on the company's operations. It's worth noting that the company's stock price has fallen significantly over the past six months. However, any losses suffered by retail investors should not be attributed to him, as his primary responsibility was to report to higher-ups.
2、Guo Mingqi: Xiaomi's car is expected to be released in 2024 with a price tag of less than 300,000 yuan. The estimated shipment volume is between 50,000 to 60,000 units. If the price is less than 250,000 yuan, the shipment volume will be adjusted upwards.
3、Due to the rise in sales of weight loss drugs, Danish pharmaceutical giant Novo Nordisk has raised its profit forecast, expecting a year-on-year operating profit growth of 40-46% at constant exchange rates. In China, there are mainly two hot topics being speculated on: weight loss drugs and Huawei. The weight loss drugs have not yet officially expanded into the commercial market in China, but capital is already eager to invest. I'm aware that many doctors are already administering the injections, which have minimal side effects and are effective for weight loss.
- 1、The U.S. reported a CPI of 3.7% for the last month, slightly exceeding the market forecast of 3.6%. As a result, the dollar index rose by 0.3%. While the outcome is slightly disappointing, it's not a major negative factor. Tomorrow will be a good opportunity to gauge the attitude of foreign capital. If we see continued inflows from the north, it could shed light on some issues.
2、Recently, the price of lithium carbonate experienced a sharp decline, dropping below 150,000 yuan at one point, which resulted in its market price being lower than the production cost. This situation forced some lithium salt manufacturers to reduce production to stabilize prices. However, today, lithium carbonate futures rebounded with all contracts hitting their upper limit. Concurrently, the lithium carbonate sector in the A-share market also saw a significant rise.
3、Recently, several provinces in China, especially those in economically lagging and remote areas, have been issuing special refinancing bonds. The planned issuance of these bonds has now exceeded 500 billion yuan. This amount is primarily intended to help local governments repay the debts owed to enterprises.
- Today, a news story from the crypto world has drawn widespread attention. Binance, the world's largest crypto exchange, collaborated with Israel to freeze accounts associated with Hamas and subsequently transferred the virtual assets to Israel. This has led to numerous remarks about how cryptocurrencies can't escape political interventions. Indeed, major exchanges like Binance are significantly influenced by the U.S. Even if you're not in the U.S., you could still get arrested and extradited there when in another country. Given that the U.S. SEC has been targeting Binance several times this year, Binance has consistently sought reconciliation with the U.S. Thus, Binance tends to cooperate when facing international political pressures, as seen with the sanctions against Russia. To use Binance, users have to go through KYC verifications, implying their personal identities are known. To mitigate such risks, users should consider moving their digital assets to on-chain or hardware wallets.
- 1、"Country Garden recently announced that its sales for residential properties in September plummeted by 80.7% year-on-year. The listed company is currently facing liquidity risks and has yet to repay a due amount of 470 million Hong Kong dollars. Surprisingly, the decline in Country Garden's sales and financial situation is more rapid than I anticipated. The swift deterioration in its brand reputation has deterred many potential customers. Plus, its primary market is in third, fourth, and fifth-tier cities, where the real estate heat is cooling down even faster. I'd advise only purchasing ready-to-move properties from Country Garden; apart from Evergrande, Country Garden might now be the riskiest real estate company."
2、"The recent Israel-Palestine conflict continues to escalate. Neighboring Arab countries have voiced their support for Palestine, but this support seems to be merely verbal, as none have shown a willingness to engage in war with Israel on behalf of Palestine. Israel has declared that it has launched a military strike against Hamas, claiming to have killed around 1,500 Hamas members. However, this number remains unconfirmed. Regardless, Israel's military superiority is evident without a doubt. If Hamas truly had the capability to challenge the Israeli regular army, they wouldn't have been confined in the Gaza Strip year after year."
3、"According to foreign media reports, top government officials are considering issuing 1 trillion in sovereign debt to fund water conservancy projects, aiming to stimulate the economy and achieve this year's GDP growth target. This news emerged after the market closed. We'll wait and see what impact this will have on the infrastructure sector tomorrow."
4、"Goldman Sachs recommends increasing allocations to Chinese stocks in the fourth quarter, predicting a potential return of 3% for the CSI 300 Index and 7% for the Sci-Tech 50. However, it's wise to approach such predictions with caution, especially since they had previously forecasted a 10% potential return for the CSI 300 this year, which didn't pan out. In fact, Goldman's suggestions don't seem to hold much sway with foreign investors, who continue to sell off regardless."
5、"Recently, the much-discussed 'Arctic Catfish' incident among netizens has come to a conclusion. The incident began when a girl from Shenzhen flaunted her family's wealth online, suggesting a nine-digit fortune and hinted at having relatives in high official positions. This sparked widespread attention and led to online investigations and reports. After official inquiries, it was found that the girl's retired grandfather did have issues. The final decision was to expel him from the party, while retaining his retirement benefits as a level two officer, and requiring him to return the illegal gains (the exact amount was not disclosed). However, no criminal penalties were imposed."
- 1、Today, Muyuan shares plummeted by 7%, marking a 12% decline over two days, which has drawn significant market attention. The decline can be attributed to both internal and external factors. Externally, the rebound in pork prices has ended, with the price once again falling below 16 yuan/kg. However, this alone seems insufficient to account for such a drastic stock price drop. Notably, Muyuan recently introduced an internal contracting responsibility system. Previously, the company had always claimed to adopt a self-breeding and self-raising approach, boasting industry-leading efficiency. This change has led many to speculate that the company might be trying to further reduce costs, as their current methods may not have achieved the lowest possible expenses.
2、While many have heard of the Israel-Palestine conflict from a young age, the intricate details and origins are often unfamiliar. To fully trace the roots of this conflict, one has to go back to the times of religious myths. Given the complexity, I'll provide a brief overview here.
Around 2000 years ago, the Jewish people were conquered by the Romans, leading them to migrate to Europe. Over the subsequent two millennia, they faced continuous discrimination in Europe. By the 19th century, many Jews began advocating for a return to their homeland. They sought help from the British, as that territory was under British colonial rule. The British, for their strategic interests, promised both the Jews a homeland and the Arabs independence.
After World War II, the Jews lobbied for the establishment of Israel at the United Nations and eventually gained international support. However, during the territorial partition, despite being a minority in population, they were granted a larger piece of land. This resulted in conflicts with neighboring Arab nations. Despite being besieged, the Jews, having endured Hitler's persecution, showcased tremendous unity and fighting spirit. They not only successfully repelled multiple Arab invasions but also gained more territories.
In 1993, in a bid for peace, Palestinian leader Arafat and Israeli leader Rabin signed a peace agreement. But due to dissatisfaction from both sides, the peace process struggled to advance. Especially after the assassination of Rabin, the hardline policy in Israel prevailed, putting an end to peace efforts.
Currently, Israel, with its superior military strength, controls most of the region. Palestine, on the other hand, is divided into two main areas: a larger part led by the peace-seeking PLO and the smaller Gaza Strip controlled by the more radical Hamas. Hamas has always advocated for the eradication of Israel and has recently launched attacks that have killed thousands of Israelis. Although Hamas has received support from Iran, its military capability still pales in comparison to Israel's regular forces.
The recent aggression by Hamas might be linked to indications of a thawing relationship between Saudi Arabia and Israel. Palestine has always depended on its neighboring Muslim countries as allies. If Saudi Arabia opts for a more cordial relationship with Israel, the vision for Palestinian statehood might face even more challenges.
- 1、The recent data from the National Day holiday has been released. Compared to 2019, using a comparable basis, there was a 4.1% increase in the number of people, and a 1.5% growth in consumption revenue. For comparison, I looked into the data from the Labor Day holiday: back then, there was a 19% surge in people, but the revenue only grew by 0.66%.
2、This year's box office revenue for the National Day holiday has reached just over 2.7 billion, a year-on-year increase of 83%. At first glance, this might seem quite impressive. However, last year's figure was significantly affected by the pandemic, making for a lower base. When compared to the past few years, this year's performance is not particularly outstanding. It falls short when juxtaposed with 2019 and is also notably behind 2020 and 2021. Therefore, investors shouldn't have high expectations for cinema chains and film stocks after the holiday.
3、During this holiday, a new rumor began to circulate suggesting that trading hours would be extended by one hour (adding half an hour to both the morning and afternoon sessions) and that limited T+0 trading would be introduced in some sectors. However, exchanges and brokerages quickly refuted these rumors. They stated that they would consider the possibility of extending trading hours, but given the current state of the A-shares market, the implementation of T+0 trading is still premature.
4、In September, China's official manufacturing PMI reached 50.2, which not only surpassed the previous month's figure of 49.7 but also exceeded institutional forecasts. Additionally, several other key economic data points, including CPI, PPI, M2, and the aggregate financing to the real economy, will be released tomorrow, Monday.
5、During this National Day holiday, a topic in the stock market has sparked widespread discussion. In short, there's a company in Zhejiang named Guoxiang Shares that manufactures air conditioners. Due to poor management, they sold their company shell to Huaxia Happiness in 2011. However, later on, someone bought back the air conditioner business from Huaxia Happiness for 80 million yuan and began operations again. Now, they are planning to relist, with a relatively high valuation, boasting a price-to-earnings ratio of 51 times. In comparison, industry leaders like Midea and Gree have a P/E ratio of only about 10 times.
6、Recently, Elon Musk once again advocated for weight loss pills on x.com. He acknowledged that all medications have side effects. However, compared to the health risks posed by obesity, the risks from GLP-1 agonists are relatively lower. Interestingly, when a slim celebrity endorses weight loss pills, we might suspect they're merely cashing in. Still, Musk possesses a unique persuasive power in this aspect. Currently, weight loss drugs have become one of the hottest topics in the pharmaceutical sector. Although the stock price underwent high-level volatility adjustments on the day before the holiday, the trend, as illustrated by the K-line chart, remains robustly upward.
7、Recently, Huawei's car model M7 has witnessed a rapid surge in sales, achieving 50,000 units in pre-sales in just 25 days. Such sales performance might potentially stimulate the stock performance of Huawei's industrial chain sector after the holiday.
8、Recently, the pre-holiday correction of gold prices has caught the attention of many investors. However, from what I've observed, almost no domestic or international institutions hold a bearish view on gold in the medium to long term. It's widely believed that, given the fluctuations in international situations, countries might increase their gold holdings. Moreover, with the U.S. dollar potentially at a historical high, there's a likelihood of its depreciation in the future, which could also boost gold prices. If the correction is significant enough, it might present an ideal buying opportunity.
9、During the long holiday, international oil prices fell by 10%, which might impact the performance of the energy sector in the stock market after the holiday. As for Hong Kong stocks and A50 futures, their performance has essentially remained flat compared to before the holiday, not due to a calm market, but recovering to stability after violent fluctuations. A key factor here is that Hong Kong's social security fund has increased its holding of nearly 10 billion HKD in Hong Kong stock ETFs, preventing a crash during the National Day holiday. Consequently, the possibility of reducing the stamp duty in the future also increases. The Hong Kong government's strategy of buying low and then releasing positive news is quite astute.
- 句句实话