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- After the decrease in miners' profitability following the halving, the hash rate has decreased. Yesterday, the Bitcoin network experienced its fourth consecutive negative difficulty adjustment this year.
- Yesterday Lens Protocol had the highest DIU value in last months.
General trend shows growth since going permitionless.
- The above chart illustrates the price performance of Bitcoin after each halving cycle. The numbers on the right side represent the price multiplier. For example, at the end of the last cycle (green line), the price of Bitcoin was approximately 6 times higher than the price at the time of the 2020 halving. The fifth Bitcoin halving occurred on April 20th, with a price of $ 64,000. Currently, Bitcoin is trading slightly lower at around $ 61,000.
- The above chart compares the payment volume of two major companies, VISA and PayPal, with stablecoins. It is predicted that in the second quarter of 2024, the payment volume of stablecoins will surpass that of the industry giant in international financial transactions, VISA.
- Have a nice day!
- The market capitalization of altcoins has completed its pullback pattern after breaking its Polbuck triangle pattern. Currently, the Ichimoku cloud is considered as support. A breakthrough of the $ 1.05 trillion level will trigger a pump in altcoins.
- Good morning! I hope your day is filled with joy and energy. May you face any challenges head-on and embrace new possibilities.🤗
- The above chart depicts the transition of long-term investors' sentiment from accumulation to distribution and vice versa. As you can see, long-term investors started selling at the $ 70,000 level, and now this index is crossing zero and beginning the accumulation phase again.
- Tether dominance is currently breaking out of an ascending pattern and is also within a horizontal support range. A break below 4.75% confirms the downward trend. Considering the inverse correlation between Tether dominance and the movement of the crypto market, analyzing USD.D movement will determine the start of the next bullish wave in the market.
- Yesterday, Bitcoin ETFs experienced a net inflow of $ 387.5 million. This marked the first net positive day since April 23rd and also recorded the largest net inflow since March 26th.
An important point is that the first day of positive inflow for the Grayscale ETF also occurred.
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- Ethereum network sees record growth after one year!
Approximately 139,560 new Ethereum addresses were created on April 29th!
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- In the week leading up to the halving, Bitcoin fees surpassed Ethereum's. Then, we witnessed a surge in Bitcoin fees due to the Runes protocol.
Following the settling of dust after the halving, fee markets returned to normal, and the hype around Runes subsided. The average block solving time is currently around 10.2 minutes, slightly higher than the desired 10-minute mark.
- Investors are continuously accumulating Ethereum!
The Ethereum reserves on exchanges have significantly decreased, with this decline being much greater compared to Bitcoin.
It seems that with the start of the Ethereum altseason, this trend will lead the way!
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- So far, we've always seen an increase in the hash rate after halving events. However, it's possible that after a halving, this index may enter a corrective phase for a while.
The continuous increase in hash rate over time signifies ongoing investment in Bitcoin infrastructure over time.
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- According to the previous prediction, the US dollar index has broken out of the triangle pattern. Currently, it has also broken above the Ichimoku cloud, and the RSI indicates an overbought zone.
Currently, it faces a horizontal resistance. While there is a possibility of breaking the resistance at 107, attention should be paid to the negative impact of this event on the crypto market.
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- USDT Market CAP
- Which exchange has the highest average Bitcoin trade size in the United States? Cboe Digital Exchange leads among the top 9 exchanges in the United States.
Yesterday, the average Bitcoin trade size on this exchange exceeded $ 14,000, indicating its popularity among institutions and investment firms! Despite the increase in trading volume, according to the exchange's announcement, crypto spot trading will be halted!
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- The chart above illustrates the inflow and outflow of Bitcoin ETFs since their inception. Yesterday, we saw approximately 500 Bitcoins enter, exceeding the amount of newly mined Bitcoins (450 Bitcoins). Demand continues to outpace supply.
In total, Bitcoin ETFs have attracted $ 12.42 billion in capital since inception. Interestingly, the Blackrock fund with the symbol IBIT has recorded positive inflows for 71 consecutive days!
- Following the halving, miners' income experienced a significant surge, driven by high transaction fees in the RUNES protocol. For more information on this protocol, refer to the latest newsletter.
After the completion of the RUNES protocol hype, which boosted miners' income to $ 100 million, the impact of the halving took effect, and currently stands at $ 50 million per day.
- The chart above depicts Bitcoin's dormancy, indicating how long each Bitcoin has been inactive in an address. With the increasing index, older Bitcoins are being transferred to new holders, reflecting changes in ownership patterns. Recently, this index has reached its 13-year peak!
While Bitcoin ownership is shifting, it appears that a significant portion of new holders are institutional and financial entities!
- The growth of the Ethereum ecosystem is extraordinary! Weekly active wallet count has surpassed 10 million, and weekly transaction count has reached over 70 million!
A notable point in the two charts above is the growth of the Base network, which has generated a lot of buzz and excitement!
- Miner fees surpassed $ 80 million!
Following the halving, Bitcoin's daily miner fees reached a record high of 1258 BTC.
- As we have passed the fourth halving, we consider the $ 58.5K level as the main support for Bitcoin to prevent further price decline. The chart above illustrates the amount of Bitcoin purchased at each price level.
It's interesting to note that less than 5% of the total Bitcoin supply is between $ 50,000 and $ 60,000, a range that Bitcoin only crossed in two days, February 26th and 28th. A significant portion of the supply is in the $ 40,000 to $ 45,000 range, which could become a price target if support is lost.
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- #Altcoins
The post-halving run in altcoins is going to be legendary 👾
- With the start of ETF trading, Bitcoin's liquidity has significantly decreased in the last two days of the week. With about a 4% decrease compared to the past two years, only 16.5% of the total weekly trading volume is related to weekends this year.
With just 10 hours left until the Bitcoin halving, it is predicted that this weekend will witness increased volatility and trading volume.
- The chart above illustrates the miners' holdings and their changes relative to the halving. While the accumulation pattern of the second and third halvings differs, the level of 300K Bitcoins appears to be significant for miners.
Miners' Bitcoin holdings have increased by 12,100 BTC since the beginning of the year, reaching 217,000 Bitcoins, with no sign of them selling Bitcoin. Miners do not anticipate a major market correction.
- Only two days left until the fourth Bitcoin halving and the halving of block rewards from 6.25 to 3.125! After 12 months from the three previous halvings, Bitcoin's returns have been as follows:
First Halving: +1000%
Second Halving: +200%
Third Halving: +600%
- As the Bitcoin halving approaches, Bitcoin transaction fees are increasing! On April 12, Bitcoin recorded its highest daily transaction fee of 2024.
Ethereum transaction fees have reached their lowest level since February 5, amounting to $ 5 million.
- Last week, crypto investment products witnessed an outflow of $ 126 million.
Bitcoin saw an outflow of $ 110 million, but the monthly inflow remains positive at $ 555 million. Ethereum is also attempting to maintain its position above $ 3000 with an outflow of $ 29 million.
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- The SOPR index below 1 (highlighted circle in the chart) indicates that the majority of short-term holders exited their positions at a loss. Currently, we can assume that all the short-term retail traders, driven by fear, have completely exited their positions.
As predicted, we witnessed a highly volatile weekend despite the absence of ETFs. The behavior of Bitcoin ETFs in the coming days and the beginning of the trading week are very significant and noteworthy. Tomorrow, the actual extent of the power and influence of Bitcoin ETFs will become clear!
- Bitcoin experienced a fearful drop last night, unsettling investors. Such drops driven by panic are particularly unwelcome for traders, especially long-term holders. A significant volume was liquidated, and the Open Interest index also saw a considerable decline.
While the price had around a 10% drop, it doesn't seem that widespread fear has engulfed the entire market. As seen in the chart above, the $ 65,000-67,000 level quickly found support from short-term holders.
- The US Dollar and US yields are currently at their highest levels since November. Just yesterday, US 10-year yield saw a 4.5% increase.
In response to these changes, US stock market indices experienced a decrease of less than 1%, but Bitcoin remained unaffected and surged to over $ 71,000.
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- As we approach the fourth Bitcoin halving, let's examine the historical post-halving returns. Bitcoin's returns have always been positive in the 9-month and 1-year periods after halving events.
In the 2016 halving, negative returns were recorded in the 1-month and 3-month periods, and returns were very low in the corresponding period in 2020 as well. As we mentioned before, the positive effects of halving may take some time to materialize!
- The largest seller during this period was Grayscale, which reduced its Bitcoin reserves from 621,000 to 320,000 over three months.
This heavy selling volume only managed to cover part of the demand from other ETFs and had no significant impact on the upward price trend.
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- The above chart indicates a significant decrease in the amount of Bitcoin held on Coinbase. In the past thirty days, a net total of 85,000 BTC has been withdrawn from this platform, marking the second-largest outflow in the exchange's history. The largest outflow occurred in March 2021 when 86,000 bitcoins left CoinBase.
Recently, this downward trend has accelerated. Following the launch of the Bitcoin ETF in January 2024, CoinBase held 411,000 bitcoins. Currently, this figure has decreased to 294,000 bitcoins, indicating a reduction of 120,000 coins in just two months.
- The decrease in Bitcoin and Ethereum balances on exchanges continues.
In the past month, 111,000 bitcoins worth $ 7.75 million have been transferred from exchange addresses.
- Analyzing the realized profit and loss chart always reveals interesting insights. When at times the price behavior seems unjustified to us, we can seek answers in the on-chain data.
The pattern above, which has repeated in the market's past, indicates that when the price approaches its previous historical peak, realized profits significantly increase (many assets are cashed out). After these profits are cashed out, it takes some time for the market to gather volume again. As the NRPL (Net Realized Profit/Loss) index decreases and stabilizes, signaling the end of the correction period, a new peak will be established.
- Since January 11th, the Grayscale Bitcoin ETF has been consistently experiencing Bitcoin outflows, as evident in the chart above.
In recent days, we have witnessed a decrease in the slope of this outflow trend. Despite heavy outflows from this fund, the net flow of all ETFs is positive at $ 12.1968 billion, indicating public interest in this Bitcoin investment product.
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