Post by @90100 • Hey
After rising for two weeks in a row, international oil prices are starting to rebound?
Due to intertwined long-short factors, international oil prices hav
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- There are many variables on the supply side
Oil prices have lost about a fifth of their value since late last year on expectations of a slowing global economy and the possibility that the global oil market will remain in surplus. In view of this, on June 11 local time, Goldman Sachs significantly lowered its oil price forecast. Goldman Sachs was one of the most steadfast bulls on oil prices earlier this year, when it predicted international oil prices would rise to $100 a barrel by the end of the year. Larger-than-expected supplies from Russia, Iran and Venezuela were a key factor in lowering the outlook for oil prices, Jeff Curie, the bank's global head of commodities research, said in a note.
Kaneva and her team estimate that after the implementation of the voluntary production cut measures of about 1.1 million barrels per day, which came into effect in May, the average daily oil supply of "OPEC+" in the first six months of this year was still 17.5% higher than that of the same period last year. million barrels to 44.6 million barrels.
It remains to be seen how far members concerned will abide by the agreements, as the production cut pledges agreed in April are not mandatory.
On July 6, local time, Iraqi Oil Minister Hayan Abdul Ghani said in an interview with foreign media that Iraq is considering increasing its current oil production capacity of 5.4 million barrels per day. "Iraq wants to pass a promising plan to increase production capacity to 6 million barrels per day by signing licensing contracts with companies in the next stage." He said at an OPEC seminar held in Vienna that day.
In addition, higher output from some member states that have not participated in voluntary production cuts will also offset the positive impact of a series of production cuts on oil prices.
According to commodity data providers Kpler and Petro-Logistics, Iran exported an average of about 1.6 million barrels a day of oil in May and June this year, more than double the amount exported about a year ago and the highest since 2018. the highest level. In 2018, the United States reinstated sanctions on Iran, resulting in a sharp drop in the latter's oil exports.
demand is elastic
But on the other hand, despite the continued economic slowdown in major economies, global market demand remains resilient. On July 7 local time, foreign media quoted sources close to OPEC as saying that when the organization releases its first outlook later this month, it may maintain an optimistic view of oil demand growth next year, which is expected to slow down this year. slowed, but still above average.
The move came after the U.S. Energy Information Administration said the previous day that U.S. crude inventories fell more than expected due to strong refining demand, while gasoline inventories fell sharply after driving increased last week.
In addition, energy services company Baker Hughes said U.S. energy companies increased the number of active oil and natural gas rigs last week for the first time in 10 weeks, and the number of natural gas rigs hit the largest weekly increase since October 2016.